Three Reasons Why the Packers Lost to the Dolphins

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers, who are rapidly advancing towards the play-offs with six wins in their last seven games, will host the Miami Dolphins, who have returned to the play-off race with three consecutive wins, on Thanksgiving night.

There are many reasons why the Packers can win againBut here are three reasons why they will lose.

1. Firepower of Dolphins

This is not a game without Jaire Alexander, but these are the conditions as he recovers from his knee injury.

Alexander has been in and out of the lineup all year due to injuries. When he did play, he was mostly excellent. While he was out, the Packers were struggling.

Green Bay is 2-2 with Alexander inactive. Wins? Against the Rams, who lined up without freshman receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and the 49ers, who started a backup quarterback. The losses were to Minnesota and Detroit, both with great passing attacks.

Miami’s passing attack is as good as any in the NFL.

Here’s Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ranking over the last five weeks since returning from a serious concussion:

– Second with 116.2 passer rating (Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, 117.7).

– First with 76.5 completion percentage (Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield, 72.9).

– First plus-10 touchdowns and interceptions (11 touchdowns, one interception).

The Dolphins’ skill position players would win every contest. Tyreek Hill is arguably the most dangerous receiver in NFL history. His 12 touchdown passes of 75-plus yards rank second all-time, just behind Hall of Famers Devin Hester (14) and Ollie Matson (13).

Hill led the NFL in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season, and Jaylen Waddle, who surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons, led the NFL in yards per catch in 2022.

“They’re definitely the fastest group we’ve ever seen on record,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “We have to do this in various ways; different streams, different ways to slow them down. Ultimately, you should try to keep the ball in front of you. “Hopefully, some of the things we’re going to do, some of the adjustments we’re going to make, will allow that to happen.”

While defenses were afraid of the long ball, Tagovailoa enjoyed the short ball. That’s why Hill is averaging 11.7 yards per catch. Although Tagovailoa’s 5.59 air yards per attempt was by far the shortest in the NFL, his 6.18 yards after the catch ranked sixth.

It’s not just Hill and Waddle. Running back De’Von Achane led the NFL with a ridiculous 7.7 yards per catch last season, while he was tied with Hill for the team lead with 49 catches. The leaders in touchdown catches are Achane (five) and tight end Jonnu Smith (four).

Over the last five games, the Dolphins are second on third down (55.0 percent) and first on fourth down (100.0 percent). He is first in driving success (points on 56.3 percent of his drives), second with 3.02 points per drive, and fifth in the red zone (73.7 percent).

One of the keys for Green Bay will be tackle. Only five teams have missed more, according to SportRadar. Of the 12 teams with the most missed tackles, Green Bay is the only team with a winning record.

Another big thing will be putting pressure on Tagovailoa, but good luck with that. Over the last five games, Miami ranks fifth in sack percentage allowed (5.3) and sixth in quarterback hits allowed (14).

“Tua does a great job of throwing with anticipation,” LaFleur said. “He’s as good as he gets in this league, so you’ve got to make sure you try to disrupt the timing in some way, even if it’s going to take him off the scene, because he’s going to make you pay.

“If there’s a bit of light there, he trusts that his large areas are in the right spot. He kicks his back foot and the ball comes out of his hand. So this is a big challenge.”

2. Situational Deficiencies

Was Sunday’s win against the 49ers the breakthrough Green Bay’s offense had been searching for all season?

The Packers entered last week’s game ranked 27th in the red zone with a 48.7 percent touchdown rate. They went 5-on-5 against the 49ers.

Before the game, the Packers’ red zone play selection was pretty close to a 50-50 split, with 53 rushing and 46 passing. There were 13 runs and three passes against San Francisco. Josh Jacobs scored three goals and Jordan Love scored two more.

Regardless of the approach, the Packers will face a big challenge against the Dolphins, who are seventh in red zone defense (48.3 percent touchdowns) and seventh in goals on goal (64.7 percent touchdowns). Opponents are in the red zone 1/6 in the last three games. Going back even further, opponents are just 6/19.

This means complete command of the most important part of the field. Whether it’s Jacobs using his strength or Love using his arms and legs, the Packers need to show that last week’s red zone success wasn’t just a blip on the radar.

“Short weeks are tough, but obviously trying to get as much film as possible, understanding who you’re up against and then (learning) the game plan,” Love said.

“We’ve got a short week, we’re cramming two days into one today with third downs and the red zone. So just keeping everybody locked in here, staying with the playbook when we get home and of course getting our bodies back and making sure everybody’s healthy is kind of the key.”

3. Dolphins vs. Big Game

The Packers’ offense is built on big plays. They are fourth in the league with 50 plays of 20-plus yards. When it breaks, they rank sixth with 39 passes of 20 yards and fifth with 11 runs of 20-plus yards.

However, Miami allowed only 34 plays of 20-plus yards; This was the seventh-fewest match in the league. Only five teams allowed fewer 20-yard passes than Miami’s 27. In the last four games, opposing quarterbacks have completed three passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

“I thought their defense was outstanding,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s really hard to get them to make explosive plays. They’re very good in the red zone on third down, so I think it’s a very solid system.

“They’re doing a great job and there’s a lot of variations on it, so I think (defensive coordinator) Anthony Weaver and his staff, Joe B(arry), have helped him a lot. Weaver’s done a great job there, they’ve got talented players and they’ve got a good scheme, so “It will be quite challenging.”

Miami’s defense forces offenses to take the long route to the end zone. That’s not exactly how Jordan Love wants to play, so he’ll have to play with patience against a defense that doesn’t give up on big plays and play with precision against a defense that’s down on fifth and third down.

“I’m definitely a guy who always wants big plays, wants to put pressure on the defense and make some shots,” Love said. “I think I owe credit to our guys in the receiving room as well, I’m confident those guys can make some of these shots.

“Those are the lessons I had to learn last year and I continue to learn, weighing the right time to make those shots, whether the guys are taking a step or whether we’re getting the right coverage or whether we’re just finding those completions, because those checks and sometimes even finding those completions turn into big plays. “I just understand where I need to go with the ball, but of course I like to push the boundaries and push the ball downfield.”

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