Here’s where consumers could feel the price pain if Trump’s tariffs go into effect

President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on the issue of tariffs. This week he promised more.

Embers said monday It plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada and increase the previously proposed tariff of up to 60 percent on all Chinese goods by 10 percent.

The tariffs would be a significant increase from Trump’s previous proposal, which was already a major increase on more targeted tariffs Trump enacted during his first administration and kept in place by President Joe Biden.

An estimate from Yale’s Budget Lab shared with NBC News on Wednesday found that Trump’s proposed tariffs could cost consumers up to an average of $1,200 in lost purchasing power based on 2023 incomes, assuming retaliatory duties are imposed on U.S. exports. in its place.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has already warned He said any new tariffs imposed by the United States would be met with retaliatory tariffs by his country. Canada is similarly considering its own options, including possibly tariffs on U.S. goods. According to Associated Press.

America’s largest import from Canada is oil, and any increase in energy prices will likely be felt throughout the economy.

“Another way to think of this is that 4 to 5 months of inflation in a normal year suddenly drops,” Ernie Tedeschi, director of the Budget Lab and former chief economist for the Biden administration, said in an email.

Three countries Trump has chosen for a new round of targeted tariff proposals (China, Mexico and Canada) Represents nearly half of US import volumes.

Although Trump insists that other countries will pay the cost of the tariffs, most economists agree that these costs will be passed on to consumers. At a time when rising prices remain a top concern, the types of goods that consumers interact with every day are goods that may face higher costs.

Some companies are warning that import-heavy parts of the economy could be hit particularly hard. Best Buy CEO Corie Barry warned on tuesday He said additional costs for U.S. imports “will be shared by our customers.” electronic products It has the largest share in US imports from China By 2023.

“There is very little in the consumer electronics space that is not imported. … These are goods that people need, and high prices don’t help,” Barry said.

The biggest impact from Mexico will be on car buyers. Last year, 130 billion dollars of automobile imports were realized. The US auto industry has so far not commented on what the impact would be on the industry if Trump did this. But any increase in costs would come at a time when U.S. consumers are already struggling to finance vehicle purchases.

USA also gets involved A significant portion of their fresh products come from Mexico.

Trump has made all kinds of threats in the past, including tariffs, with unpredictable and inconsistent follow-ups. But economists, as well as businesses and retail groups, are still taking the latest statements seriously.

In a statement sent to NBC News last week, the National Retail Federation warned about the impact of the tariffs on everyday households.

“The last thing Americans want is upward pressure on their family’s finances,” the organization said in a statement. “Every credible, nonpartisan research project on increasing tariffs on our trading partners proves one thing: Consumers will pay higher prices for both discretionary and non-discretionary products and services.”

A Trump spokesperson released the following statement in response to NBC News’ request for comment:

“In his first term, President Trump imposed tariffs against China that created jobs, encouraged investment, and did not result in inflation. “President Trump will work quickly to fix and revitalize an economy that is straining American workers by restoring American jobs, lowering inflation, raising real wages, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, and unleashing American energy.”

Trump’s allies in conservative media have largely ignored economic concerns about the tariffs, framing the new president’s threats as a chess move to force Mexico and Canada to comply with fentanyl and immigration policies.

“This is a story about the art of the deal,” Fox News host and former Trump spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said on the network Tuesday. “What President Trump did – I would say quite brilliantly – was to issue the opening salvo of a difficult negotiation.”

“Tariffs will hurt the American consumer, that’s true,” said Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas. accepted on tuesday on Fox News. “But they also provide good negotiation tools.”

Some of Trump’s allies have suggested that the president-elect does not actually plan to implement the proposed tariffs.

“I think what President Trump is trying to do is say if we come together and solve this problem, there will be no need to impose these tariffs,” media mogul Steve Forbes told Fox News on Tuesday. “This isn’t just about tariffs, it’s also about Mexico taking control of the border.”

In fact, progress has been made this year on stopping drugs and immigration: The U.S. saw a 14.5% drop in overdose deaths from June 2023 to June 2024, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And for the first time since 2021. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration has seen a decrease in the potency of fentanyl pills.

Meanwhile, immigrant influxes fell this yearAccording to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol data. Mexican President Sheinbaum, in his statement reacting to Trump’s posts, stated that the migrant caravans are no longer reaching the border.

Douglas Irwin, a trade historian at Dartmouth University, said Trump tends to view tariffs as a solution to various economic problems the United States is dealing with.

This makes it even more difficult to evaluate their ultimate effectiveness.

Irwin said Trump “confused” his goals for tariffs, so you can never be quite sure why they were implemented.

“Is it for revenue, is it to reduce the deficit, is it to bring back jobs? And now he’s talking about tariffs that will penalize Mexico and Canada for not letting drugs and immigrants across the border. … When deciding whether they are successful or not, you have to ask what goal you are trying to achieve.”

This article was first published on: NBCNews.com