It’s time for Patriots coach Jerod Mayo to be more aggressive on fourth down

Three years later, the Lions are still championing it more than most teams. But now Campbell’s team is one of the NFL’s best and is outscored by an 11-1 mark. Thursday’s win against the Bears. Campbell has built a smart, resilient and aggressive team that is impervious to high pressure moments. In 2023, analytics site SumerSport ranked Campbell No. 1 among coaches in “additional win percentage.”

“It shows he believes in us,” quarterback Jared Goff said.

These are lessons Jerod Mayo should take into consideration as he coaches the final five games of the season. Not only are the Patriots 3-9 entering Sunday’s game against the Colts, but their first-year head coach is doing the exact opposite of Campbell in high-leverage situations like fourth downs and 2-point conversion attempts.

NFL teams have never been this aggressive before; This season, they broke a record of 70.5 percent in the fourth and 1st places, and 30 percent in the fourth and 3rd places. Last Monday night, Ravens and Chargers The Ravens converted one from the 16-yard line late in the first half to go 5-on-5 on fourth down.

“I felt like we could get it done,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said at halftime. “No courage, no glory, right?”

But Mayo have shown little courage this year and enjoyed few victories. He kept the offense on the field on just 20 percent of fourth downs when the computers said it was the right call, making him the third-least aggressive coach in the league.

“I would say every game is unique in itself,” Mayo said. “Ultimately, it’s up to me to make those decisions. There will be games where we’re aggressive in the fourth loss. Maybe there will be other games where we’re not as aggressive.”

“I would also say there are different factors that influence those decisions – where we are in the game, where we are on the field and things like that.”

Ironically, the fourth line is one of the few areas where the Patriots have performed well. They rank 13th with a 62.5 percent success rate, 10 points out of 16.

Their 16 tries were tied for 14th-most, but the majority of them came only because they fell behind so often in the second half. When given the chance to coach aggressively and show faith in his team, Mayo opted to punt or attempt a field goal almost every time:

Going for fourth-and-1 from 39 in overtime against the Seahawks.

Delaying game on fourth-and-3 from the 49ers’ 41 and punting in the first quarter.

Shooting from 13 and four to fourth and third and scoring from 2 vs. Rams.

Last Sunday against the Dolphins, he ran on fourth-and-1 from his 39 in the first quarter.

On other occasions, Mayo chose a timid way out: punting instead of taking a 54-yard field goal against the Rams, going for the 2, and taking the extra point to force overtime rather than win against the Titans.

The only time Mayo showed an aggressive streak this year was on a couple of fourth-and-1 runs in the first half against the 49ers (stuffed) and Bears (successful). He also correctly went 2-and-out at the start of the fourth quarter against the Jaguars while trailing by 9 points, but backtracked from that strategy against the Rams.

“Every decision I make is not always going to be a popular decision, and that’s part of my job,” Mayo said after the Rams’ loss.

If the Patriots had an elite defense, an explosive offense, or Mayo leading a winning, experienced team, some of Mayo’s decisions would be understandable. But the Patriots have a terrible defense that gets hurt every week, an offense that ranks 31st in scoring, and they knew the playoffs were a pipe dream this season.

Realistically, this season is about building a new culture, developing young players (and coaches), and building a foundation with rookie quarterback Drake Maye. They must attack every opportunity they get to score goals. Going the extra mile also allows the offensive coordinator to adjust the play call to account for an extra tackle.

There is little downside to scoring in the first quarter on fourth-and-1 from the 39-yard line against the Dolphins or fourth-and-2 against the Rams. Doing this shows your belief in the players and builds the foundation of the program. Doing this tells the locker room and everyone watching the game that the Patriots are starting to fight.

Taking the offense off the field sends the opposite message. Mayo is telling the world he doesn’t believe his players can kick from 2 yards.

Of course, a team’s fourth loss won’t always help. One reason coaches favor punts and field goals is to avoid scrutiny for aggressive decisions. But even misfires can be beneficial for a fledgling team like the Patriots. The more they practice with high leverage situations, the better they should become in those situations. And a coach who takes the pressure to make aggressive choices often strengthens his bond with his players.

“Guys love him,” former NFL Players Association president J.C. Tretter said last spring when Lions players gave Campbell an A+ grade. “There were a lot of guys writing open-ended answers talking about how much he meant to them, how much he led them, how much they enjoyed playing for that guy.”

Campbell’s aggressiveness may not be the No. 1 reason why the Lions are the best team in the NFL and the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. But he created a culture that took the Lions to these heights.

“We want to prove him right,” Goff said. “It gives us a little more motivation to make things work. He trusts us. Maybe the odds are against us and he’s saying, ‘No, it’s not.’ ”

Ben Volin can be reached at [email protected].