Analyzing seismic activity to warn of terrorist activities

Investigation of ground motions recorded on October 7 Tel Aviv University team The university announced on Thursday that it had identified the potential to use seismic data to provide early warning of future terrorist activity.

“The results show that in the morning 7 October“Seismic stations located in southern Israel detected weak ground motions caused by unusual movements of heavy vehicles (e.g. tractors, bulldozers and trucks) in the Gaza Strip.”

The research paper, titled “Forensic Seismic Evidence for the Leading Mobilization in Gaza that Led to the October 7 Hamas Attack,” was published in The Seismic Record, the peer-reviewed journal of the Seismological Society of America.

The research was supported by the Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur grant, the Israel Science Foundation grant, and the Israeli Minister of Energy and Infrastructure.

Dr. Researchers from TAU’s Porter School of Environmental and Earth Sciences and the Department of Geophysics of the Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences, led by Asaf Inbal, analyzed data recorded at three Israeli Seismic Network (IS) stations located in Amazia, Ktsiot and Yatir. In southern Israel. The stations are located 30 to 50 kilometers (18 to 31 miles) from Gaza.

Dr. Asaf İnbal (credit: TAU)

forensic seismology

forensic seismology The researchers explained that the system is often used to monitor conventional and nuclear explosions, and noted that it was the first time that “weak ground motions resulting from preparations for a terrorist attack were detected by analyzing the characteristics of seismic noise caused by vehicular traffic.”

The team believes the research demonstrates the potential of seismic-based sensing technology to provide early warning of terrorist activity, but emphasized that movements in Gaza could be detected retroactively months later.

Inbal explained that the nationwide network of seismometers operated by the Geological Survey of Israel is designed primarily to detect and locate earthquakes and provide warnings of strong tremors caused by large-magnitude seismic events. On the morning of October 7, 2023, three stations “recorded unusual seismic noise levels.”

“This noise can be safely attributed to the vehicular activity of Hamas terrorists in Gaza as they gather for the attack,” Inbal said. “The time period before the rocket fire started was between 6:00 and 6:30 in the morning. “The probability that the recorded signals came from Gaza is over 99.9 percent.”

The introduction to the research paper notes that because Saturday was a quiet, non-work day and the date fell on the eve of the Simchat Torah holiday, low background noise levels and large-scale mobilization in Gaza meant that “some ISIS broadband stations, even though they are tens of kilometers from the Gaza Strip “He may have recorded the mobilization signal.”

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“The characteristics of the noise originating from Gaza and captured by Israeli stations are fundamentally different from those recorded at the same stations at the same time on previous Saturdays,” he said.

Years of data are analyzed

The team analyzed three years of data from three stations (recorded in the same time period as the one leading up to the attack) and could not find a Saturday morning where associated amplitudes were recorded for more than 10 minutes at all three stations. expression.

Findings from the research. (credit: TAU)

“It is important to note that these stations are widely spaced and each station is primarily sensitive to seismic noise from nearby human activities,” Inbal said.

“For example, the distance between Ktsiot and Amazia is approximately 80 kilometers and there was no correlation between the data recorded at these stations on previous Saturdays. “While local activity near the stations was minimal on the morning of the attack, we found unique widespread seismic amplitudes that increased monotonically as we approached the attack.”

“No known natural or human source on the Israeli side could have produced seismic signals of similar distribution and intensity to those attributed to Hamas movements,” he added.

“Although the outdoor music festival near Re’im generated some seismic noise, our analysis shows that this noise does not match the strength or location of the noise sources recorded by the Israeli seismic network on October 7.”

According to the statement, analysis shows that the detected seismic noise started at 6 a.m. and intensified as the attack approached, and that the noise may occasionally contain short bursts strong enough to detect the source and track its progress. The location and density of resources in Gaza in the 30 minutes before the attack indicate vehicle movements moving south and north in Gaza.

“We have a good solution on Salah al-Din Road, an important thoroughfare that crosses Gaza from Rafah in the south to Beit Lahia in the north,” he said. “We can confirm with great certainty that their forces were advancing along this route at a speed of 25 to 50 km/h.”

“Observations made at stations tens of kilometers away from the Gaza border point to convoys of heavy vehicles such as bulldozers and trucks carrying agents,” Inbal added.

“Three minutes before the start of the attack, we detected noise sources reaching the northern tip of Gaza, near Beit Lahia, and the southern tip, near Khan Younis. At the same time, we continued to receive signals from the center of Gaza, near Nuseyrat. “We know that the offensive began almost simultaneously along the entire border, so these seismic observations provide further evidence of the widespread deployment of Hamas forces, possibly enabling a simultaneous breach of the land barrier.”

Inbal said he hopes the new information will lead to more widespread use of such tools for safety and industrial purposes.

“We see Tel Aviv University Department of Geophysics graduates playing a leading role in scientific and technological developments, and we are confident that in the future, multi-purpose seismic detection technologies will be used more widely in a variety of areas affecting our world. daily lives,” he concluded.

forensic seismology

Years of data are analyzed

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