First look: Oregon-Michigan predictions and best bets: Can the Ducks continue to surge?

No. 1-seeded Oregon continues its march toward the Big Ten championship game this week when it visits Ann Arbor to face the Wolverines at Michigan Stadium.

The Ducks (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) have been challenged just once in their first four Big Ten games. Oddsmakers don’t expect Oregon to sweat this week either. The Ducks are favorites by more than two goals against Michigan (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS).

Here’s our first look at Saturday’s game, as well as our Oregon-Michigan predictions and best bets.

Oregon vs. Michigan predictions and best bets

• Oregon -14.5 (-110 BetMGM)
• Oregon Team Total Over 31.5 (+110 on DraftKings)

It would be too much to ask for any football team to win by scoring more than two goals every week in the long run. Even Oregon couldn’t do that in the first two games of the season. But I think it will happen this week.

The Ducks got their act together last month and haven’t slowed down since their thrilling victory over Ohio State. Oregon has been among the 29.5 and 22 point favorites for the last two weeks.

The offense gets most of the headlines, but the defense comes too. The Ducks will have no problem limiting Michigan’s offense, which does not have a strong enough passing game to complement its desire to run the ball as often as possible.

If Oregon gets ahead early, Michigan will have a hard time keeping up because it isn’t equipped to score many points. In this case, it won’t be long before the Ducks reach a big lead.

Some will cite Michigan’s strong defense as a reason why the Wolverines were able to stay in this game and potentially close the point gap. This is not true.

The Wolverines did not play a tough schedule as Michigan ranked 32nd in the nation in scoring defense (21.5 ppg). The average national ranking of their opponents’ scoring offenses is 71.2.

They have given up at least 21 points to every Power Five team they have played against Michigan State, which until last week had the worst offense (117th) on Michigan’s schedule.

Oregon’s offense is a whole different world compared to Michigan’s top eight opponents. The Ducks will score points on Saturday.

Oregon vs. Michigan moneyline odds analysis

Why might Oregon win as the favorite?

Best odds: -700 at Caesars

Everything is going well for Oregon as the grueling run of the regular season begins. The Ducks have scored at least 31 points in every Big Ten game. Oregon won all but one of those games by at least 21 points.

QB Dillon Gabriel was sensational. He ranks eighth nationally and first in the Big Ten with 2,371 passing yards. Gabriel is ranked 10th nationally and first in the conference with 18 touchdown passes.

His defense was also great. His 15.6 points per game allowed ranks 11th in the country.

The Ducks are loaded and have national championship expectations. They will focus on this road challenge. It’s easy to see that they played well on Saturday and remained undefeated.

Why can Michigan win as an underdog?

Best odds: +570 on FanDuel

There’s nothing special about Michigan this season. The Wolverines, one season removed from what I and some others consider a tainted national championship, rank in the middle of the Big Ten defensively. They are near the bottom of most offensive categories.

Michigan switched quarterbacks for the third time this season last week and continued to have suboptimal play, with Davis Warren passing for 123 yards. Davis also fumbled the ball for a trick-play touchdown that put Michigan ahead by 13 points in the fourth quarter.

But all this mediocrity was present in September, when 11th-seeded USC visited the Grand House and lost 27-24. There’s something to be said for the mystique of Michigan Stadium. If the Wolverines can play clean football, they can also upset Oregon.