Could Trump really cut off wildfire aid to California? Definitely

Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut off federal disaster aid for the California wildfires if he returns to the White House; lastly, lastly, A campaign rally at Coachella and in his speech on the golf course Rancho Palos Verdes.

Such a loss in federal funds would be a devastating blow to a state where wildfires are growing larger and more destructive, in part due to climate change. A single severe fire season can cause tens of billions of dollars in damage, firefighting costs, and economic losses. The possibility of losing disaster aid has state officials and politicians considering contingency plans ahead of next week’s elections.

“This plays into Trump’s revenge agenda,” said Rep. John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove). “California is one of the few states where he vowed revenge on those who did not support him or challenged him.”

Trump said he would cut disaster funding if state officials did not support his policies; most recently he threatened to do so if Gov. Gavin Newsom did not provide more water to farmers and homeowners.

“We’re going to take care of your water situation, force it down your throat, and say: Gavin, if you don’t do this, we’re not going to give you any of the fire money we’re sending you all. It’s time for all the fires, forest fires you’ve ever had.” Trump said this at Coachella.

The threats appear to be real. Presidents have extraordinary discretion over disaster relief; Trump is said to have used it as a political cudgel during his presidency.

He initially refused to approve federal aid to California for the 2018 wildfires until a National Safety Council staffer pointed out that Orange County had a heavy concentration of supporters. A report from Politico’s E&E News. Trump also ignored a request for aid for wildfires in Washington state in 2020 due to a dispute with Gov. Jay Inslee, and the funds were only given the green light when President Biden took office months later. reported exit.

“We are establishing a record that this type of behavior has become more than a threat,” said Brian Rice, president of the Professional Firefighters of California. “It seems like a potential reality. And that’s very worrying.”

The California firefighters association has endorsed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, who left her national union, which did not support either candidate, in part because of Trump’s threats.

California and other states receive most federal wildfire assistance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, a process determined by the federal Stafford Act and the regulatory framework that implements the law. This includes individual assistance (direct payments and services to homeowners and tenants whose properties are damaged) and public assistance to cover expenses such as search-and-rescue teams, debris removal and infrastructure repairs.

To qualify for this type of assistance, a state must show that the incident is serious and major enough to warrant a response beyond the state’s capacity. The governor must request a major disaster, the president must declare it, and then approve the aid the governor requests.

This is accomplished through a step-by-step process in which local, state and federal governments assess the damage and ensure it meets certain financial thresholds. Based on this information, FEMA determines whether a federal disaster declaration is necessary and issues a recommendation to the president. Presidents in the past have followed this advice, but there is nothing in the law requiring them to do so.

Similarly, presidents are not legally required to consider specific factors when making decisions regarding disaster relief, nor are they required to do so in a timely manner.

Matt Sedlar, a climate analyst at the Center for Economic and Policy Research who studies how disaster relief funds are apportioned, said states can appeal denials of aid, but the president will ultimately decide the outcome of the appeal.

“My main message is: Yes, bad things could definitely happen to California if Trump acts on his threats,” he said.

Grant Douglas pauses during evacuation as the Park fire jumps Highway 36 near Paynes Creek in Tehama County, California, on July 26, 2024.

(Noah Berger / Associated Press)

Garamendi, who sits on the Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management, said denying FEMA proposed disaster assistance would spark political outrage and likely result in a lawsuit calling the decision arbitrary and capricious. FEMA’s oversight. However, it is not clear how the courts will decide.

“It would stink if members of Congress and the Senate were putting too much pressure on the president, especially given that Trump has said he has his own agenda,” Garamendi said. “I guarantee it will happen: political backlash and litigation.”

All states are susceptible to a variety of hazards, from storms and floods to fires and even terrorist attacks, making them eligible for federal aid. Officials fear Trump will base his decisions on whether to approve aid on a state’s political leanings; It approves money to states where his reelection campaign has strong support, while rejecting aid to California or Washington, for example.

After Hurricane Michael hit Florida in 2018, Trump directed FEMA to pay 100% of most of the state’s disaster costs instead of the traditional 75%, resulting in $350 million more in federal aid than the state would have received without its intervention. Politico reported.

According to Governor Ron DeSantis’ autobiography, when he asked Trump for help, the then-president responded: “I must have won 90% of the vote there. Big crowds. What do they need?

California has been denied federal money for wildfires in the past. In 2021, Biden raised the voice of state officials. Refuses to provide individual assistance to Caldor fire victimsDestroying more than 1,000 structures in the Sierra Nevada. The president declared a disaster and approved public assistance. But Biden’s decision was based on — not despite — the advice of FEMA, which said it considered the amount of destruction, residents’ insurance coverage and income levels, and the state’s financial resources before deciding on the fire. .

There is at least one notable exception: Fire management assistance grants, which provide federal funding for up to 75% of eligible firefighting costs for large wildfires, do not require presidential approval. They only need to be approved by a regional FEMA administrator. The agency has approved nine of the grants awarded to California so far this year.

Still, FEMA’s director and regional managers are appointed by the president, allowing Trump to appoint officials to carry out his wishes.

“There are many mechanisms by which the federal government can harm a state,” Sedlar said.

Experts think that if a president refuses to provide federal aid, state officials will seek alternatives. Some assistance may continue to be available through other federal agencies, such as the Department of Transportation, which can help rebuild highways, install road barriers and clear culverts, Garamendi said.

But he and others said the ultimate burden to make up the difference would fall on California, raising the possibility of cuts to other programs or funding to provide the money.

Newsom recently he told Politico He said he was working with other officials to create plans in the state budget for an account California could use for disaster response if FEMA aid is no longer available during Trump’s future presidency.

“In a large state like California, even with significant budget reserves, you’re going to have serious cash flow problems,” the governor told the press.

California’s need for federal disaster aid for the next four years is almost guaranteed. Requests for federal aid are routine to deal with not only worsening wildfires but also severe storms that have become more common as the West experiences extreme shifts from wet to drought.

Even this year, Newsom has requested presidential disaster declarations for damages suffered by homeowners and renters. park fire in Northern California and borel Both fires in Kern County are under investigation, FEMA said.

Biden also issued two major disaster declarations for severe storms in California. The first of these was given the green light on February 19. Storms and flooding in San Diego CountyIt resulted in FEMA providing more than $27 million in assistance to homeowners and renters.

The second one was announced on April 13. severe winter storms, hurricanes, flooding and landslides More than $5.1 million in aid from FEMA has been provided to communities with damaged public infrastructure in Glenn, Butte, Sutter, Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties, according to the agency.

In some years, the dollar amount can be much higher. after california devastating 2020 fire seasonAs the state saw more acres burned than in any year on record, FEMA approved more than $700 million in individual and public assistance.

Rice said rejecting such aid based on political animus would strike at the heart of the nation’s long-established mutual aid system, on which disaster response has relied for centuries.

“Regional, state and federal support is everything; that’s how the United States works,” he said. “We do not threaten each other. We do not play games with people’s lives.”

He added that when this system becomes politicized, it is community members who ultimately suffer.

“The Legislature in California doesn’t lose anything, and neither does the City Council or the Board of Supervisors,” he said. “It’s the people who live in California who are at risk, they’re the ones who are suffering.”