Donald Trump's Odds of Election Victory Suddenly Gone in Freefall

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are entering the final days of their White House race. With Tesla billionaire Elon Musk warning of a “financial emergency.”

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Embers, recently declared himself the “president of cryptocurrency” Crypto-based Polymarket saw the odds of victory rising to 67% by October on the prediction platform.

Now, As investors begin to panic about the Federal ReserveTrump’s chances of victory are in freefall, heading toward a 50/50 split between Trump and his Democratic rival, Harris.

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Republican presidential candidate and former US president Donald Trump spotted Polymarket … (+) The advantage over Democratic Party rival Kamala Harris is disappearing.

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Trump’s chances of victory on Polymarket, which uses the USDC dollar-pegged stablecoin to facilitate trading but is unavailable to U.S.-based users, fell to about 54% over the weekend, just two days before Tuesday’s election.

Harris has seen her odds rise from 33% to 45% following highly respected pollster Ann Selzer’s poll in Iowa, with bettors increasingly betting that she will win the White House. Des Moines Register The poll showed Harris leading Trump by three points among likely voters, although there was no clear lead in the race despite Trump winning the state in 2016 and 2020.

On rival prediction platform Kalshi, which launched cryptocurrency deposits via USDC last week and is open to US users, the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to just four percentage points.

While Kalshi users put the probability of Trump’s victory at 52%, Harris’s chances of winning the White House have fallen to 48%, down from 65% in Trump’s favor to 35% earlier this week.

Unlike polls, odds prediction platform is not a survey of voters, but an open market that allows users to bet on the expected outcome of all kinds of events, from elections to pop culture and sports.

Polymarket has seen just over $3 billion bet on the outcome of the US presidential election since January; Trump is a consistent favorite among his users, who are generally believed to be younger, male and interested in crypto.

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Donald Trump’s odds of victory over Kamala Harris plummet and plummet at Polymarket … (+) sharply after rising throughout October.

Polimarket

A Polymarket user based in France bet $30 million that Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election. tells the Wall Street Magazine He is not trying to influence the vote and says his “intention is only to make money.”

Crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket has surged in popularity in recent months as those in the crypto community embrace a successful use case of the technology.

Interest in Polymarket increased in the summer months Users are betting heavily that President Joe Biden will drop out of the race in early JulyWeeks before Biden withdraws from the election.

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