Georgia is preparing for a divisive election that will determine its future in Europe

Men wait at a bus stop in Javakheti, Georgia, Tuesday, October 22, 2024. (Shakh Aivazov/AP)

JAVAKHETI, Georgia — When Vahan Agayan goes to the polls for parliamentary elections in Georgia on Saturday, he said he and his wife will vote as instructed by officials of the ruling Georgian Dream party.

Agayan owns a sheep farm near the border with Armenia and Türkiye, 133 kilometers west of Georgia’s capital Tbilisi and a world away. Tens of thousands of demonstrators there marched in a pre-election demonstration in favor of joining the European Union.

But what Agayan wants most in the mountainous Javakheti region is stability.

A few years ago, wolves entered the barn and killed half of the sheep, almost destroying the livelihood of dozens of families. According to Agayan, the EU is far away; What matters are local leaders like him who have the power to make or break small farmers.

He said “most people” would vote for the regional MP from Georgian Dream.

“An old dog is always better than a new one,” he said, suggesting that a change in power could be unpredictable.

Many people in this South Caucasus country of 3.7 million believe the election will be the most important vote of their lives, crucial for their chances of joining the European Union. This pits a coalition of opposition parties against the Georgian Dream, which has come to power in an increasingly authoritarian manner since 2012.

Polls show that nearly 80 percent of Georgians are in favor of joining the EU, and the constitution obliges leaders to join both the bloc and NATO.

In July, Brussels indefinitely suspended Georgia’s EU accession bid after Georgian Dream passed an “external influence law” modeled on similar legislation in Russia. Media, non-governmental organizations and other nonprofit groups are required to register as “advocating the interests of a foreign power” if they receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad.

Georgian Dream argues that harmful foreign actors trying to destabilize the country should be prevented. Many journalists and activists say the organization’s main goal is to brand them and restrict pre-election debate.

This story, supported by the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is part of The Associated Press’s ongoing series covering threats to democracy in Europe.

Georgia has long had an uneasy relationship with Russia. It was governed from Moscow for most of the last century until it gained independence in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In 2008, Georgia fought and lost a short war with Russia, which still occupied some of its territory.

When Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, it promised to restore civil rights and “reset” relations with Moscow. Founded by shady billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia, the party has also vowed to pursue EU membership.

Natia Seskuria, director general of the Institute for Regional Security Studies in Tbilisi, said this reassured many Georgians who saw the threat from Russia “with their own eyes” and looked to the West for protection.

But then Georgian Dream began to move towards Moscow: passing the foreign influence law despite mass protests, avoiding international sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine, and severely restricting LGBTQ+ rights.

However, Seskuria said that the party’s authoritarian course cannot be explained solely by Moscow’s influence. Instead, he argued that the purpose of foreign influence law is also the “preservation of power.”

He noted that Georgian Dream leaders watched the Kremlin use new laws to successfully suppress critics and decided to do the same.

Some businessmen who support the Georgian Dream also have a vested interest in his re-election because the party profits from his time in office. At a pro-government rally in Tbilisi on Wednesday, family members of people who won privileged jobs in railways and infrastructure were seen among the crowd.

Zurab Chiaberashvili, foreign policy secretary of the United National Movement opposition party, said Georgian Dream was waging a “hybrid war” against its citizens.

Before the election, the ruling party’s campaign ads claimed that a “Global War Party” was trying to influence the EU and the USA, expand the conflict in Ukraine, and remove the Georgian Dream from power.

Billboards also emerged comparing black-and-white images of destruction in Ukraine with color images of life in Georgia, with the slogan “Say no to war – choose peace.”

“Everyone is afraid of war,” said Nairik Ukanyan, owner of a village shop in the Javakheti region, where ethnic Armenians live. Many people, like Ukanyan, speak Armenian and Russian but have limited Georgian.

Ukanyan said that he received his news about Georgia from Russian television, which said that relations between the two countries were friendly.

“Why do we need a relationship with Europe?” he asked. Sheep breeder Ağayan also has the same opinion: “Even if I had 20 children, I would not send them to Europe.”

He said the West “is afraid of Russia and wants everyone to abandon it.”

Vahan Agayan speaks in an interview with The Associated Press in Georgia’s Javakheti region on Tuesday, October 22, 2024. (Shakh Aivazov/AP)

The Georgian Dream appears to have a firm grip on power. Agayan said authorities paid about $110 to several villagers to persuade others to support the ruling party.

However, not every resident said they would support the party.

“I am a single mother and we are very poor,” said Gayane Batirova, 41.

He explained that his entire family had previously voted for the Georgian Dream. He was told to vote for the party again, but he didn’t because it wasn’t making his life better.

The AP visited Georgian Dream’s local headquarters in Javakheti, but no one responded to requests for comment.

In the town of Ninotsminda, office signs were posted in Russian and an official said everyone was “on business” and unavailable for interviews.

Maka Bochorishvili, a Georgian Dream member of parliament in Tbilisi, said the party’s main goal is European integration based on “peace and dignity”, referring to the party’s conservative values.

“What is at stake is peace and stability in this country,” he said.

But while the Georgian Dream told voters it wanted to join Europe, its shift towards adopting Russian-style laws cost it support in the West. As well as freezing EU membership talks, Britain suspended its security dialogue with Georgia and canceled other defense talks, fearing threats to democracy.

Seskuria said these moves are “good news for Russia” because the Kremlin is “naturally interested” in Georgia’s disconnection from the West, including the loss of financial support and sanctions.

Many Georgians fear that if Georgian Dream is re-elected, aspirations for EU membership will end completely.

“We are at a crossroads of either being a Russian puppet state or being independent and free,” said Tina Bezhanidze, 26. Wrapped in a Georgian flag, he was one of tens of thousands of people who attended a pro-EU demonstration in Tbilisi on Sunday. .

Bezhanidze, an economist, came to the show with his parents and three younger sisters in a display of intergenerational support for Georgia’s European ambitions.

Even in remote Javakheti, not everyone thought joining Russia was a good idea.

Egsam Manasyan, who was picking potatoes in the vegetable field, said, “Of course, we need the European Union.”

She and her husband, Artur, told the AP they wish there were more job opportunities in the area.

“We have been with Russia and the Soviet Union all our lives,” Artur Manasyan said, adding that Georgia should “look everywhere” for opportunities.

“We still don’t know what Europe really is,” he said.

Sophiko Megrelidze contributed to this report.