Explainer: What happens if the US elections end in a Trump-Harris tie?

So what exactly happens if neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump gets the Electoral College majority needed to win the US election?

Although very unlikely, such an outcome is still possible; Tormented Americans are already perched painfully on the edge of their seats ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

In the US system, it is not the national popular vote that decides who will be president, but the 538-member “Electoral College”, where each state receives “voters” equal to the number of representatives in Congress.

Every state except Nebraska and Maine awards all of its electors to whoever comes first in the statewide popular vote.

If both Harris and Trump fail to reach the 270-voter majority threshold, the U.S. Constitution says Congress will play a decisive role.

Specifically, the newly elected House of Representatives will elect the president in January, while the Senate will appoint the next vice president.

Several possible scenarios could lead to a 269-269 split in the Electoral College.

An example of this could occur if Democrat Harris prevails in the states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while the Republican former president carries Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, as well as a single left-leaning district in Nebraska.

200 years

A tie would lead to a so-called contingent election in Congress, something that has never happened before in modern American history.

The last time there was a tie in the election of 1800 forced Congress to elect the president; In this election, Thomas Jefferson faced the incumbent president, John Adams.

Lawmakers in the badly divided House fought hard to reach agreement, eventually electing Jefferson on the 36th ballot.

This unbearable confusion led four years later to the passage of the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution to somewhat clarify election procedures.

This time, if such a House vote is necessary, it will take place on January 6, 2025.

How will this vote proceed?

One state, one vote

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), “Each state, regardless of population, casts a single vote for President in a qualified election.”

So Republican-leaning Wyoming, with its city-sized population of 500,000, would have the same impact as Democratic California, with 39 million people.

Although Washington, the capital of the United States, has three votes in the Electoral College, it will not receive votes in the conditional elections because it is not a state.

States with two or more representatives will need to hold an internal vote to determine which candidate they will support, according to a CRS report.

A candidate must win a majority of all 50 states, or 26 votes. Right now, that would probably give Republicans an advantage.

Specific rules to govern the process would likely need to be adopted by Parliament, potentially leading to intense disagreements and a protracted constitutional crisis.

It’s easy to imagine how such a process, at the end of a razor-thin campaign, would strain the already badly frayed nerves of American voters, many of whom believe the voting is riddled with irregularities.