US-Wahl 2024: Von Erdrutschsieg bis Stimmenpatt – Drei Szenarien für die Wahl

18 Uhr Ortszeit (Mitternacht in Germany) is located in the first Wahlokale in the Bundesstaaten in Kentucky and Indiana, a Stunde später endet in Georgia, Stimmabgabe with the old Swing State. Als letztes schließt Alaska seine Wahlokale, dann ist in Deutschland, bereits Mittwochvormittag.

Nur im Jahr 2008 and 2012 are included in the Geschichte won by Barack Obama at the Mitternacht Ortszeit festival. 2016 took place in Morgenstunden and 2020 took place in the Weiße Haus as a festival together with Samstag. In Disem Jahr sind drei Szenarien möglich:

1. Knappes Rennen

For me, I mastered a long night, then spent some time at Morgen, and dropped in a day later in the fall. This was where Kandidaten was located in the Swing States, so for longer periods of time it was a place to see the Sieger at its best. This occurs automatically with a new transit in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, but with a payment of 0.5 or less. Michigan had Schwelle in the 2000 Stimmen.

There may be a warning in Georgia and Nevada, and concerns may be alleviated in Nevada. In Wisconsin der Fall, Gewinnmarge is known to be with 0.25 Prozentpunkte. In Pennsylvania, it is not possible for Verdacht to have a Betrugs and a Neuauszählung bean.

Siege Time Is Never the Best, But Trump Doesn’t Have to Be Better than the Siege in 2020. In the fall, a move made by Kamala Harris in Ascension had repercussions.

“Ich danse, dass die menschen immer und frustrierter werden und dass das Trump-Team die Wahl als bezeichnen wird”, republican Meinungsforscher Frank Luntz über diesen Fall im WELT interview. This means that Fernsehserie is about “Verweission”.

In the republican Anhänger as soon as possible there was a section of the newest Stimmen for the democrats’ gab. “I am a Republican, we have a great war and we are all dying for Demokraten verloren gingen. So, my father dies passively in Philadelphia.“

2. Klares Ergebnis

All these Sorgens were on the side of Ergenekon with the support of Harris or Trump. Statistical data is genuso wahrscheinlich in Rennen. Die Umfragen chose a durchschnittliche Fehlertoleranz von drei Prozentpunkten.

There’s also Kandidat all over Swing States, and that’s a very good thing. Sowohl suffered extreme sieges with Teams von Harris as well as Trump and died very harshly in general.

3. Kein Sieger

This is a new planned scenario that brings the US hervoringt. This is a very important theory for a Gleichstand from 269:269 Stimmen of the Electoral College. Grund dafür wären Sonderregeln, Bundesstaaten in Nebraska und Maine, dengan den dengan dengan dengan dengan.

So, one of the greatest values ​​in the Staat die Mehrheit erhalt (jewels zwei) fell; Another Stimmen met in jewels as part of the Convention. Umfragen made Harris choose Bezirk, Nebraska, and Trump choose Bezirk Maines.

Geschieht dies – and nowhere else in the Swing States does Umfragen die, rich states –, many Combinations, for a Gleichstand führen könnten:

1. Trump won Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan. Harris was in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

2. Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Harris won in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

3. Trump won Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan. Harris was in North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Der 12. Verfassungszusatz was now in the autumn: the best of the new congresses was in the Weiße Haus. Repräsentantenhaus fell to Aufgabe after Präsidenten zu. Welche Partei die Mehrheit der Sitze hat, this is completely irrelevant – In summary, according to the Federal Staaten, the Delegation is a Staats erhält eine Stimme. Nach der zeitigen Sitzverteilung took part as a Republican in a Bundesstaaten Mehrheit of the Oberhand. The Senator gave the Senator a warning.

50:50 in the House of Representatives We arrived at Gleichstand with the delegation alert and arranged for the Senate to visit Sagen at the Weißen Haus. The following fall, House Representatives, Mike Johnson, along with the President, met with the President at Gleichstand to give up on the Senate declines.

Gregor Schwung ist Redakteur im Ressort Außenpolitik. Since WELT we have been at the Russian Angriffskrieg in Ukraine and Präsidentschaftswahl 2024 in the USA.

Mitarbeit: Stefanie Bolzen