Billionaires’ space race announced

C.hris Young’s Beyond Earth column explores the intersection of space technology and policy and offers thought-provoking commentary on the latest industry and regulatory developments.

Elon Musk has become an incredibly divisive figure in recent months and years.

Unpacking her journey from liberal darling to Trump cheerleader who revitalized the electric vehicle industry and realized our dream of humans on Mars is no enviable task.

I won’t do this. Instead, I want to focus on Musk’s comment today when he realized that Trump had won the election. “The future will be amazing,” Musk said. wrote on social media platform X, along with an image of SpaceX’s Starship rocket taking off.

Musk believes he can help advance Trump’s space travel goals, making it a timely moment to consider Musk’s plans for the future of humanity.

But Musk isn’t the only billionaire with a bold vision for humanity’s future in space. Jeff Bezos outlined a contrasting plan. Let’s look at how these two incredibly powerful individuals in the space industry have opposing visions for humanity’s future in space.

Elon Musk’s vision: Making life multi-planetary

Musk has long declared that SpaceX’s mission is to make humanity a multi-planet species. He frequently touches on existential risks such as artificial intelligence and climate change, but the latter has received noticeably less attention lately.

It’s rare for a new Musk venture to launch without a grandiose mission statement. For example, social media platform X-affiliated AI company Xai claims to use generative AI “to understand the true nature of the universe.”

In the SpaceX example, Musk underlines that the Earth has limited resources and will one day be consumed by the Sun. If we do not look beyond the cradle of humanity, our species is eventually doomed to extinction.

Starship is very important

The key to Musk’s vision is the engineering of his next-generation rocket. Starship is the world’s most powerful rocket, producing approximately 17 million lbs of thrust at launch.

Most importantly, Starship will be completely reusable. This would significantly reduce the cost of successive launches and make human spaceflight to Mars economically feasible.

Starship will be able to carry 100 people at the same time. In one of his more ambitious claims, the SpaceX CEO said the company 1,000 Starship rockets It will send one million people to Mars and the Red Planet by 2050. At the time, he referred to Starship as “the modern Noah’s Ark.”

Colonizing Mars is just the beginning for Musk. The Starship launch system uses liquid oxygen and methane as fuel. This means it could fly to Mars and then refuel using available resources. From there it can return to Earth or fly further into the Solar System.

Jeff Bezos’ vision: Space cylinders and moving industry off-world

Jeff Bezos has a different vision for humanity’s expansion into space. This is partly due to his work with Amazon, a company that has completely changed the logistics landscape on Earth.

Bezos argues that we should first focus on moving large production areas and logistics infrastructure off-world. These important components of our civilization can be transported into space, meaning they will no longer pollute our planet. This will allow us to focus on healing the Earth first.

That doesn’t mean Bezos doesn’t have a plan to expand humanity across the Solar System. recently report The Amazon founder spoke to podcaster Lex Fridman about his belief that we shouldn’t live on other planets. Instead, we should look for ways to build giant cylindrical space stations.

During this interview, Bezos claimed that he would “love to see a trillion people living in the solar system.” This will play a huge role in expanding human consciousness. Bezos explained that with so many people, we could have “1,000 Mozarts and 1,000 Einsteins” at any given time, and the Solar System would be “full of life, intelligence and energy.”

However, Bezos said this would only be possible on giant space stations because “planet surfaces are very small.” He proposed that space stations, or O’Neill cylinders, be rotated to have normal Earth gravity and placed close to Earth so they could be easily accessed.

NASA contracts could tip the balance

NASA’s contract for a modified Starship lunar lander could help SpaceX achieve its multi-planetary goal. Likewise, the space agency’s contracts with Blue Origin could make Bezos’ vision possible.

NASA recently enlisted the help of Bezos’ company to build one of its private space stations to replace the International Space Station. The company’s Orbital Reef station is being promoted as a “space business park” containing luxury living quarters and scientific laboratories.

In 2021, NASA awarded a Space Act Treaty contract to Blue Origin. to raise funds to develop the company’s Orbital Reef space station. NASA awarded Blue Origin $35 million contract For the Blue Alchemist project. Blue Alchemist demonstrated that it could build solar panels in space using only lunar soil.

Who will win?

There is no clear winner when comparing Musk and Bezos’ visions. But Bezos’ vision is incredibly compelling.

Musk’s SpaceX has accomplished much more to date than Bezos’ Blue Origin. The latter has yet to reach orbit with one of its rockets, but it hopes to reach that milestone with New Glenn in 2025.

In an interview with Lex Fridman, Bezos suggested he was leaving the distribution giant to fill the gap between Blue Origin and SpaceX. The “main reason” he left as Amazon CEO in 2021 was to focus on Blue Origin. His intention was to inject “some energy, some sense of urgency” into the company, which he acknowledged needed to move “a lot faster.”

Leaving aside the logistics of each vision, it could be argued that Musk is much closer to achieving his vision. But there is a big caveat. Colonizing Mars is an incredibly ambitious goal.

The incredible Starship thruster capture maneuver recently inspired SpaceX in October. But the company has a few major hurdles to overcome: space refueling tests and notoriously challenging Mars landings.

By contrast, Bezos’ plan may be easier to implement. Private space will soon take over operations for NASA’s space stations in low Earth orbit. Bezos’ plan involves scaling existing technologies, although several key technologies and concepts, such as artificial gravity, have not yet been proven in space.

Elon Musk aims to take us to a bold new dimension in space exploration. This is arguably the most exciting route, but the one most likely to be successful. SpaceX’s track record shows it is in a good position; Mars is cold and barren. Only time will tell whether it can be tamed or not.