Five Reasons No. 9 BYU Can Break the Curse in Utah

As a BYU fan, if the Holy War doesn’t worry you, you haven’t lived through the last 15 years. No. 9 seed BYU faces 4-4 Utah as the better team on paper, but rivalry games aren’t played on paper and BYU is still shaking off the ghosts of nearly 20 years of futility at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Still, if there was ever a year to end Salt Lake’s five-game losing streak, this would be it. Here are five reasons why I think BYU’s magical season continues with a win against the Utes.

Utah’s offense is really struggling to move the football. So much so that BYU led more 75-yard touchdown drives in the first half against UCF than Utah did throughout the month of October. Utah has committed more turnovers (8) than goals (5) in its last four games, with 2 of those goals coming from more than 3 plays. So the key to shutting down Utah’s offense seems to be not giving up on the big play and letting them make mistakes. BYU’s defense is designed to do just that.

BYU’s defense ranks 58th in the country in bottom-up success rate and 16th in expected points added per game (EPA). In layman’s terms, BYU is willing to give up small pieces in order to push the corrosive mistake to its fullest extent. This strategy has proven effective, as BYU ranks third nationally in results received per game. If BYU can get out to Utah early and force Utah to throw, there will be opportunities for those passes to be thrown to the blue team.

By most efficiency metrics, Utah’s defense ranks in the top 15, which is a great way to keep games close against tough offenses. However, Utah’s defense is the opposite of BYU’s in many ways; It ranks 11th in overall success rate and 40th in EPA. In other words, they are as stingy as can be in an average game, but they are also prone to giving up big games without pushing their own. Perhaps most concerning for Utah is that their run defense ranks 68th in EPA per rush, while BYU’s offense ranks 13th in EPA per rush. If BYU’s running game can continue what it has been doing since LJ Martin’s return, BYU can control this game on the ground as well.

According to PFF, Retzlaff is the 5th best quarterback nationally in play action with a 90.4 offensive grade. At this point BYU’s passing success becomes dependent on how well BYU’s receivers can get open against men. BYU’s offense fared well against Arizona, which also used a healthy dose of man coverage, but this Utah secondary is a different animal. However, if the running game continues, there will be plenty of one-on-one matchups for a guy like Chase Roberts, who is in the top 25 nationally in contested catch percentage.

Even if Utah can limit BYU’s passing game downfield, BYU’s path to victory still comes down to protecting the football. There’s a narrative out there that Jake Retzlaff is reckless at football, even though he’s only recorded four turnover-worthy shots in his last five games. This is certainly not the same quarterback that struggled against SMU earlier in the season. Although Utah’s defense is notorious for surrendering BYU quarterbacks, Utah hasn’t been that far behind this year. Utah’s secondary has been forced into a total of three picks in its last four games, while Utah’s defense ranks 71st nationally.

If anyone has a tendency to get reckless in football this year, it’s Utah, whose quarterbacks have recorded 11 turnover-worthy throws in the last 4 games. Turnovers are often difficult to predict, but if we have to try, I’m putting my money on BYU’s defense, which ranks second nationally against the quarterback Utah chooses to play.

We’re nine games into the season and Utah doesn’t know who its quarterback is. Utah spent its bye week setting up a midseason quarterback battle between Isaac Wilson and Brandon Rose; this is usually not a good sign that things are going well in this position. Among the 26 Big 12 quarterbacks who have completed at least 15 passing yards, Wilson and Rose rank 23rd and 26th in passer rating. Improving on that production becomes even more difficult now that Utah’s best deep threat receiver, Money Parks, is out for the year and the offensive line ranks 87th nationally in sacks allowed per game. BYU, meanwhile, ranks 4th nationally in passing efficiency defense. Additionally, five of the top 20 Big 12 leaders at QB live at BYU. If those QB hits turn into sacks on Saturday, Utah’s night will be as long as third down yards.

Many BYU fans are probably still suffering from the lingering effects of the northern team’s nine-game losing streak, and rightly so. Utah is an outstanding program and has been for nearly 25 years. Even after a four-game losing streak, Utah still has a power ranking among the top 40 teams according to SP+ behind a championship-caliber defense that could certainly cause problems for BYU. Utah’s problem is that they haven’t proven they can score more than 17 points without BYU’s help. Last month, Utah ranked 131st nationally in points per game (13.3), fired its offensive coordinator and benched its starting quarterback. They currently face a BYU defense that ranks in the top 10 in the country in terms of turnovers, top 25 in points allowed per game, and is among the best in the conference at generating pressure.

In my opinion, this game is about whether BYU’s offense can score more than 20 points and force fewer than 2 turnovers, and I believe they can do that. Since LJ Martin’s return, BYU ranks 13th nationally in points per game and 11th nationally in yards per rush, while Utah’s defense ranks 80th in yards per rush allowed in the same span. Utah’s defense is good enough to hold BYU well below its season averages in points scored, but not good enough to overcome Utah’s completely unanswered offense.

BYU 24 – 13 Utah