Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Georgia

The Fearless Forecast had a stress-free weekend (facing Mississippi State helps), but the good times don’t last forever. The biggest game of the year has arrived. Tennessee vs. Georgia.

Dawgs ahead by 10.5 points DraftKings Sports Betting.

This rivalry dates back to 1899, but has only been an annual matchup since 1992 when the conference was expanded. While the Vols had the upper hand in the 1990s, it has recently been a series dominated by the Dawgs. Georgia has won the last 7 games, and none of those games were led by more than 14 points.

Is Tennessee ready to turn things around? Defensively, this group has proven that it can handle any opponent. The Vols have played 9 games and still haven’t allowed their opponent to reach 20 points.

The Vols are allowing just 271.6 yards and 12.6 points per game, 5th best in the FBS in every category. They may only rank 29th in terms of turnovers, but they seem to come at just the right time. James Pearce Jr.’s forced fumble and recovery late in the first half against Florida was a season-defining moment. Joshua Josephs’ forced turnover in the third quarter against Kentucky turned the tide of the game. Will Brooks’ INT against Alabama set up Tennessee’s biggest lead of the year.

If Tennessee is going to upset Athens, they will probably need to force some turnovers. Georgia is looking to give its opponents some breaks and has already coughed up the football 15 times, ranking it the 91st worst player in the country.

Carson Beck had 12 interceptions; That’s more than any Georgia QB in the Kirby Smart era. He also made at least 1 tackle in each of the last 4 games.

Offensively, the Vols will likely always be compared to the historically strong 2022 team, which will hurt teams in pursuit. This offense is allowing 471.6 yards of offense per game (8th best in the FBS) and 37.6 points per game (15th best in the FBS). No bad!

RB Dylan Sampson is the best player on a top 10 team that few people across the country talk about when it comes to individual accolades. He currently has 1,129 rushing yards (125.4 yards per game) and 20 TDs; He extends the program record and becomes the 10th SEC player to reach 20 in a season. He was a great guy and the Vols will go as far as he can lead them. However, the turnovers in the last 3 games are worrying.

QB Nico Iamaleava’s status is a serious concern and likely explains the higher-than-expected betting line. He was held out in the 2nd half of the Mississippi State game due to what was described at the time as an upper body injury.

Upper body injury? What is this, hockey?

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said after the MSU game that he expected Iamaleava to be ready to go against UGA. Later reports stated that Iamaleava was in concussion protocol. If Iamaleava can’t go, it will be left to backup Gaston Moore, who completed 5 of his 8 passes against Mississippi State. The Vols didn’t need him to do anything extra… but that won’t cut it against Georgia.

UT’s special teams showed signs of life against Mississippi State, with the best comeback coming from PK Max Gilbert. After missing 4-of-5 FGAs against Alabama and Kentucky, Gilbert drilled each of his 4 FGAs against MSU, including a 51-yarder. Kickers are traditionally…different. Gilbert made an emphatic jab after his FG against the Bulldogs at the end of the half. It’s a good sign to see your self-confidence increasing.

Is Georgia a confident football team? It sure doesn’t look like it after a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss. UGA QB Carson Beck was supposed to be the Heisman Trophy favorite, but he’s looked pretty average this season. Beck has thrown 9 of his 12 interceptions in the last 4 games.

Georgia ranks 50th in total offense with 410.6 yards per game and 48th in scoring offense with 30.6 points per game. They have playmakers like RB Trevor Etienne and WR Dillon Bell, but this UGA offense doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of opponents like it has in the past.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are very good: 13th in the FBS in total defense, allowing 306.4 yards per game, and tied for 16th nationally in scoring defense, giving up 18.4 points per game. LB CJ Allen and DB Malaki Starks share the team lead with 49 tackles. This will be a tough test for the Vols.

Playing at home will play squarely in the Dawgs’ favor and strain UT’s communication on offense. Georgia hasn’t lost a game at Sanford Stadium since 2019, with a streak of 29 consecutive wins. Due to scheduling quirks, Georgia hasn’t played a home game in 5 weeks, while the Vols haven’t played an away game in 6 weeks. Athens will be loud on Saturday night.

The volumes remain a work in progress in hostile environments under Heupel. They are 7-8 in true road games since he took over in 2021.

It’s possible for Tennessee to make the playoffs even if they lose in Athens, but this feels like a play-in game for both teams. All 7 SEC teams participating in this weekend’s action have 2 losses or less, and right now Tennessee’s strength of schedule isn’t as good as its conference competition.

The Vols understand that they control their own destiny. Win and they’ll advance to the 12th seed in the Playoffs, plus a berth in the SEC championship game for the first time in 17 seasons. Georgia knows that with 3 losses, its chances of making the Playoffs are slim.

The Vols’ defense has been weak this season and will make life difficult for the struggling Beck. But there’s too much uncertainty with Iamaleava to pick Tennessee here.

It’s time for Fearless Prediction…

Georgia 23, Tennessee 14