Bears’ playoff picture: 3 reasons Chicago may fall out of NFC wild-card race led by Caleb Williams and Matt Eberflus

The Chicago Bears have started the 2024 NFL season at 4-2 and look to be a strong contender to at least secure the NFC wild card. They have little chance of staying in the playoff picture after losing four straight games to drop to 4-6 following Sunday’s heartbreaking 20-19 home loss to the rival Packers.

The Bears have the misfortune of playing in the NFC North, the league’s toughest division. They also lost some important matches during the skid.

Here’s a look at Chicago’s current position in the conference standings and what caused the team to go from a pleasant surprise to a major disappointment.

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Bears’ play-off photo

The Bears dropped to 12th in the NFC after losing to the Packers. They are behind the No. 11 Buccaneers, who have a bye in Week 11 and have a better conference record at 4-3 versus 2-3. They are 2.5 games behind the Commanders for the 7th and third wild card position.

Jayden Daniels’ “Hail Maryland” shutout at Washington in Week 8 set Chicago’s losing streak in motion and also provided a much-needed head-to-head tiebreaker. The blowout loss to Arizona in Week 9 could come into play if the Cardinals move from the NFC West lead to the wild-card mix. Sunday’s loss to the Packers left the Bears at 0-1 in league play.

That means the Bears still have to travel to Lambeau Field to face Green Bay (7-3), as well as a pair of games against Detroit (9-1) and Minnesota (8-2). These are five of the last matches. The other two are against San Francisco and Seattle, so Chicago’s shutout slate is brutal from start to finish, giving the fourth-place team little chance of making the playoffs.

3 reasons why the Bears will miss the playoffs

1. They wasted Caleb Williams’ rookie season

Shane Waldron wasn’t the right offensive coordinator to make Williams comfortable but aggressive as a rookie. He did not play with his improvised athleticism and big arm from the start, minimizing his growing ability at offensive skill positions. New OC Thomas Brown had to pick up the pieces when it was too late.

The Commanders linked Daniels to Kliff Kingsbury, and the Patriots recruited Alex Van Pelt for Drake May. The Broncos already knew that Bo Nix’s passing style was a good fit for Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi. The Bears tried to put Williams in a round hole after Waldron didn’t suit up for Russell Wilson in Seattle. Williams has embraced tackles that hold the ball and give up a lot of sacks, but they should have kept him at home more with running and deep passes rather than forcing short-to-intermediate moves.

2. Their run defense hurt them more than expected

The Bears have some accomplished pass rushers and tight ends as their defensive strength is against the pass, but that won’t help much if teams continue to take advantage of poor run defenses and wear down their fronts.

Chicago entered Week 11 giving up an average of 133 yards per game against Green Bay, ranking 24th in the NFL. They held the Packers to just 103 yards, but were burned twice in the red zone by Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love for TDs. They were unable to get the necessary sacks and turnovers due to weakness.

3. Matt Eberflus is not a winning coach

The Bears lost on the Hail Mary and missed a decent field goal attempt to sandwich the losing streak, but they also lost their one-possession games early to the Texans and Colts while avoiding a similar fate against the Titans and Rams. They also were underprepared for winnable games against the Cardinals and Patriots.

Otherwise, two of the Bears’ four wins have come against the Panthers and Jaguars. The Bears are inconsistent with their game plan and are not playing the most motivating or inspiring football. Planning before matches and adapting to game situations are weaknesses. Williams got his new OC as a duct tape solution, but given the issues with the offense, defense and now special teams, the Bears need a head coaching change while their QB is still on his rookie contract.