Why Ukraine's Attack on Russia with US Missiles Could Lead to World War III

Last Update:18 November 2024 13:13 IST

Washington had refused to authorize missile strikes on Russia for fear of escalating tensions. But the reversal of policy came two months before Donald Trump, who was skeptical of US aid to Ukraine, took over the White House.

The outgoing Joe Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS missiles in limited strikes inside Russia. According to Russian lawmakers, such escalation could lead to World War III.

Washington had previously not allowed such attacks against Russia, fearing an escalation. But the policy reversal came two months before Donald Trump, who was skeptical of U.S. aid to Ukraine, took over the White House in January.

Trump’s team also suspects that the new US administration will allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons inside Russia.

Before assuming the presidency, Trump repeatedly reiterated that he would end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East during his second term.

What is Russia’s Warning Against Ukraine’s Missile Use?

Andrei Klishas, a senior member of the Federation Council, the upper house of Russia’s parliament, said on the Telegram messaging app: “The West has decided to escalate tensions to such a level that by morning it could result in the Ukrainian state being in complete ruins.” According to Reuters.

Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the international relations committee of Russia’s upper house, said Moscow’s reaction would come immediately. This would be “a huge step towards World War III,” Dzhabarov was quoted as saying by the TASS state news agency.

Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the State Duma lower house, said that Kiev’s US-authorized attacks on Russia with ATACMS missiles would provoke the harshest reaction, Russian news agencies reported.

President Vladimir Putin previously said in September that the West would go to war directly with Russia if Ukraine allowed it to hit Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, a move he said would change the nature and scope of the conflict.

Why Did Biden Make This Decision?

President Biden has always opposed the use of U.S. weapons against Russia, fearing that it would drag the United States and its NATO allies into a direct conflict with Russia.

But after momentum shifted to Russia, Biden relented. The current move by the United States signals to Ukraine that it will support efforts to retain a small piece of Russian territory that could be used as a “bargaining chip” for any future negotiations. BBC.

Reports suggest Biden’s decision will allow Britain and France to grant Ukraine permission to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia.

Neither Britain nor France responded to Biden’s decision.

What Does Trump Think?

The president-elect has not said he will continue the policy, but some aides have criticized financial and military aid to Ukraine.

Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., wrote on social media: “The military industrial complex seems to want to ensure that World War III begins before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives.”

Trump’s vice president, J.D. Vance, said the United States should not provide more military aid to Ukraine.

Many Ukrainian officials fear that Trump will cut off arms supplies when he assumes office in January.

What are the ATACMS that can be used against Russia?

ATACMS (pronounced “attack”) are manufactured by Lockheed Martin and are some of the powerful ballistic missiles supplied to Ukraine.

The missile, which has a warhead containing about 375 pounds of explosives, can hit targets 190 miles away and fly much higher in the atmosphere than artillery rockets.

ATACMS can be fired from HIMARS mobile launchers provided by the USA to Ukraine, as well as from old M270 launchers sent from England and Germany.

The ATACMS missile was developed in the 1980s to destroy high-value Soviet targets deep behind enemy lines. New York Times.

The missiles will likely initially be used against Russian and North Korean troops in support of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s western Kursk region, according to U.S. officials cited by The Times.

Why Did the USA Wait?

Since the Ukrainian war began in February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has begged for weapons that could hit Russian-held territory and ultimately hit Russia even deeper.

The United States provided ATACMS to Ukraine last year but banned its use against Russia for fear that Putin might respond by escalating tensions. “We’re trying to avoid World War III,” Biden said.

Zelensky argued that the need for such weapons was vital to Ukraine’s broader counteroffensive. He emphasized that there were no plans to use them against Russia or target civilians.

What might be the impact?

The missiles will help Ukraine hit targets inside Russia, most likely around the Kursk region, where the Ukrainian military holds more than 1,000 square kilometers of territory.

In return, Ukraine can expect a counter-offensive by Russian and North Korean troops to retake territory in Kursk.

Reports indicate that Russia has moved military equipment, such as jets, to airfields further inland in Russia in anticipation of such a decision.

When Did the US Use ATACMS in War?

The US military fired 30 ATACMS against Iraqi medium-range ballistic missile launchers and surface-to-air missile sites during Operation Desert Storm in 1991.

Accordingly New York TimesThe first generation ATACMS could fly approximately 100 miles and drop 950 bombs.

During the 2003 invasion, the U.S. Army also fired more than 400 bomb-carrying tactical missiles in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

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