Manipur crisis: What does withdrawal of NPP support mean for Biren Singh government?

In a major turn of events, the National People’s Party (NPP) on Sunday announced that it is withdrawing support to the ruling BJP government in Manipur due to ongoing ethnic tensions in the state and ineffective handling of issues by the government. to restore peace. However, the NPP’s announcement comes at a time when violence is on the rise in the state, which has been plagued by deadly clashes since May 2023. However, while this may be a blow to Chief Minister N. Biren Singh and his administration, it does not pose any threat. to the prevailing policies of the state and especially the BJP.

Political impact: What does NPP withdrawal mean?

The NPP, led by Chief Minister Conrad Sangma from Meghalaya, has seven members in the 60-member Manipur legislative assembly. The NPP has written to the BJP, its president JP Nadda, expressing their displeasure over how the violence has been handled and said the Biren Singh-led government has failed to control it ‘completely’. The party also condemned the state government for the ethnic conflicts in the state that led to the death of hundreds and the displacement of thousands.

The BJP government is unlikely to be in danger even after the NPP decides to withdraw its support. The BJP has 37 seats in the Assembly, well over half of the 31-seat drawing board. This means that even without the NPP’s 7 legislators, the BJP can continue to govern with the support of its remaining allies, including the Janata Dal (United). ) has 6 seats. While the party argues that it can restore peace, this policy has already been heavily criticized for being ineffective in this situation.

The withdrawal of support for the nuclear power plant is seen as a tactical measure to prevent any undesirable connections due to the ongoing mismanagement of the situation. NPP may therefore capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the ‘failed’ BJP and try to strengthen its presence in the region.

Ongoing crisis in Manipur: Root causes of violence

For a significant period, Manipur was associated with all the ethnic communities living in it, including the Meitei-Kukis-Naga, as a conflict-prone region. Over the years, demands for greater autonomy, protection of ethnic groups, control of land and resources have always been the source of restive agitation.

The current wave of violence began in May 2023 when clashes broke out between the Meitei and Kuki communities, with the Kuki accusing the state government of supporting the Meitei majority. This situation deepened further, leading to loss of life and property and the displacement of many people. Alongside ethnic conflicts, political differences have also increased levels of violence as different ethnic communities continue to demand greater autonomy and respect for their rights.

Despite the central government’s harsh approach, which included the deployment of military forces, lasting peace could not be achieved. Some argue that these measures only deepen mistrust between communities.

Attack on Prime Minister Biren Singh’s house

There was a horrific spike in violence in the state on Saturday after an angry mob tried to enter Chief Minister N. Biren Singh’s private residence in Imphal. Security personnel quickly dispersed the situation, using tear gas to disperse the crowd. Luckily, the state’s chief minister was not at home at the time of the attack and was confirmed to be safe in his office.

This attack represents a critical juncture in current tensions and demonstrates the level of frustration and anger the public feels towards the state government and its actions. To make matters worse, it is interesting that the Prime Minister’s official residence is at the center of the violence and not any other place of residence.

The attempted attack on Biren Singh’s house reveals concerns over the safety and security of political leaders and government officials in the state, as well as the apparent fatigue of the masses with the authorities. It also highlights the turbulent politics of Manipur, where a rising tide of unrest has begun to push people to revolt against the existing order.

Will the Biren Singh government survive?

Even though NPP’s support has been withdrawn, the ruling NDA government in Manipur is in a position to remain in power for a very long time as it has a majority in the Assembly. However, it is worth noting that the political dynamics of the state are constantly changing and increasing agitation may pose some risks for the ruling party in the long term. Prime Minister Biren Singh’s government is under increasing pressure to address the problems that have led to the current crisis and seek a lasting political solution.

Currently, different sections of the society are advocating for a political dialogue that includes all groups, including the Meitei, Kuki, Naga and other lesser-known groups. Although the federal government has sent reinforcements to keep the peace, reports suggest that this situation is and will continue to be a deep political problem that cannot be solved by resorting to a military solution alone. Arguably, reconciliation is the only strategy that considers meeting the aspirations of Manipur’s various ethnic groups clamoring for autonomy, land and natural resource rights, and respectful participation in governance.

What’s next for Manipur?

As the crisis continues, the people of Manipur face great suffering, thousands of people are displaced and many people lose their lives. Growing discontent with the current government, as evidenced by the pressure on the nuclear power plant and the raid on the Prime Minister’s home, indicates that the situation is very quickly getting out of control. The Biren Singh government will need to restore normalcy and address the political concerns of different communities to remain in power.

So far, the BJP government in Manipur appears to be in power, but whether it can deal with the causes of the violence and produce a political solution will soon determine how much more support it can expect from the public. allies.