Judge to decide how to proceed with Trump’s secret money conviction

Donald Trump’s election victory has created a conundrum for the judge presiding over his criminal case in New York. Could he go ahead and punish the president-elect, or could doing so potentially trump Trump’s constitutional responsibility to lead the nation?

Court documents made public Tuesday reveal that Judge Juan M. Merchan effectively postponed the case until at least Nov. 19, while he and attorneys for both sides deliberated on what should happen next. Trump’s sentencing was tentatively scheduled for November 26.

Trump’s lawyers are calling on Merchan to act in the “interest of justice” and tear up the verdict, which is the first criminal conviction of a former and now future U.S. president.

Manhattan prosecutors told Merchan they wanted to find a way to balance the “competing interests” of the jury’s verdict with Trump’s responsibilities as president.

Here are some scenarios of what might happen next:

Wait until Trump leaves office

If Merchan wants to preserve the verdict without disrupting Trump’s presidency, he may choose to delay the sentence until the president-elect leaves office in 2029.

Trump would be 82 at the end of his second term, more than a decade removed from the events at the heart of the case.

Trump’s convictions on 34 counts of falsifying business records include his efforts to conceal a $130,000 payment he made during the 2016 presidential campaign to disprove allegations that porn actor Stormy Daniels had sex with him years earlier, which he denies.

If he chooses to wait, Merchan may not be on the bench until then. His current term ends before Trump is scheduled to leave office.

Accept Trump’s immunity request

Another way for Merchan to avoid the lawsuit is to accede to Trump’s earlier request to overturn the decision because of a July U.S. Supreme Court decision granting presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution.

The judge had said he would rule on Tuesday, but that was before Trump’s election victory upended the calendar.

The high court’s decision gives former presidents immunity from prosecution for official actions and prohibits prosecutors from using evidence of official actions to prove their personal conduct violated the law.

Trump’s lawyers argue that prosecutors “tainted” the case with testimony from Trump’s first term and other evidence that should not have been allowed. Prosecutors said the verdict “provides no basis for overturning the jury’s verdict.”

The judge could order a new trial, potentially taking place after Trump leaves office, or dismiss the indictment altogether.

Wait until the federal court rules

Merchan may choose to delay things until the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rules on Trump’s earlier bid to move the case from state court to federal court.

Trump’s lawyers are appealing a Manhattan federal judge’s decision to deny the transfer. Their argument is that Trump’s case belongs in federal court because, as a former president, he has the right to claim immunity and seek impeachment.

However, waiting for the appeals court’s decision could cause further delays in the future. The court gave prosecutors until January 13 to respond to Trump’s objection. This is a week before he takes office. Once Trump enters the White House, his legal team may make new arguments about the president’s immunity.

Case dismissed

Merchan could end the case immediately, overturning Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. He may throw out the indictment.

This would mean no fines or penalties, protecting the president-elect from prison or other penalties.

Trump’s lawyers insist that dismissing the lawsuit is the only way to “avoid unconstitutional impediments” to Trump’s ability to govern.

Prosecutors acknowledged the “unprecedented circumstances” of Trump’s conviction coincided with his election, but also said the jury’s verdict should stand.

Keep punishing

Merchan may also opt for none of the above and move on to sentencing, or at least try, barring an objection from Trump’s lawyers.

George Mason University law professor Ilya Somin said the case “could go either way” if it reaches sentencing.

In any case, “there probably won’t be any jail time,” he said.

Trump’s charges carry penalties ranging from fines or probation to up to four years in prison.

“Any prison sentence would probably be precluded or delayed in some way,” but a lesser sentence “probably wouldn’t significantly impede Trump,” Somin said.