Five Reasons for No. 14 BYU’s Resurgence Against No. 21 Arizona State

How much difference does four months make? Imagine telling yourself in August that BYU’s game against Arizona State in November would be a ranked matchup for the right to play in the Big 12 championship game. No. 21 The resurgence of the Sun Devils this season has been one of the biggest stories in college football, and after a huge 24-14 road win, they were on the rise against no. 16 Kansas State. BYU once again finds themselves on the wrong side of the betting spread, as pundits and fans question whether BYU is heading in the wrong direction. I’m not so sure about that. Here are five reasons why I think BYU can beat Arizona State on Saturday.

Jake Retzlaff has struggled in the last two games due to intense pressure from Kansas and Utah. Among the worst quarterbacks against the blitz this season, Retzlaff has been blitzed on nearly 50% of his returns and has the scars to prove it. The good news for Retzlaff is that Arizona State ranks 110th nationally in blitz rate this season at just over 25% and 104th in sacks per game. Retzlaff, meanwhile, is PFF’s 4th highest graded passer with a 90.1 grade against the standard pass rush this season while averaging over 8 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. In addition to a poor passing offense, Arizona State’s defense also ranks 96th in success rate per dropback and relies heavily on turnovers to counter passing attacks. Unless the Sun Devils change their defensive strategy significantly, Retzlaff will have plenty of opportunities to get them out of the pocket.

Arizona State is a solid matchup for the BYU offense. We’ve previously discussed BYU’s potential upside in the passing game; Running backs LJ Martin and Hinkley Ropati are averaging 5.9 yards per carry in their last 5 games. In terms of ball control, BYU ranks 8th in the country in percentage of drives leading to scoring position compared to ASU’s 66th. Worried about BYU’s third and fourth down efficiency? Arizona State’s defense is ranked 87th. What about the red zone? BYU ranks 32nd nationally in red zone scoring percentage compared to ASU’s 62nd on defense.

I get that BYU has struggled offensively the last two weeks, but ASU isn’t as exotic defensively as BYU faced against Utah, and BYU probably won’t repeat the comedy of errors that doomed them to Kansas. After this debacle, I expect the offense to come out furious and look more like the team that led the Big12 in scoring through eight games.

This may sound like a crazy statistic, but BYU has only played in five games where the defensive coaching staff (1) knew who the opposing QB would be and (2) had multiple complete game tapes to base a game plan on. In those five games, BYU is giving up just 14.8 points per game and has a QB rating of 86.3. Both would rank in the top seven nationally for the entire season. ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt falls into this category.

Leavitt wasn’t asked to take over this Sun Devil offense, but he’s been incredibly effective thanks to a heavy dose of short and intermediate throws to leading receiver Jordyn Tyson, who has taken 35% of targets this season. BYU did an excellent job limiting their opponents’ fumbles. 1 receiver held them to just 4.5 catches, 63.8 yards and 3 total touchdowns in 7 P4 games. If BYU can contain ASU running back Cam Skattebo, I don’t believe ASU’s passing attack will be enough against BYU, which ranks 4th nationally in passing efficiency defense.

The Big 12 has no shortage of elite runners, and ASU’s Cam Skattebo might be the best of the bunch. Skattebo has already racked up over 1,000 yards on the season with 11 TDs on 5.4 yards per carry. Skattebo turns into a wrecking ball when he hits a road, but he’s not unstoppable. He has rushed for over 6.5 yards per carry in 4 games this season, but also under 3.5 yards per carry 3 times, including just 2.9 yards per carry against Kansas State last week after missing the UCF game with a shoulder sprain was kept.

To put it bluntly, BYU’s run defense has been a mixed bag this season; He gave up 269 yards to a bad Oklahoma State team, but also held top-30 rushing offenses in UCF, Kansas and Baylor to 297 total yards below their season average. Still, given Skattebo’s latest injury and BYU holding Kansas to 2.2 yards per carry, I expect BYU’s defense, which ranks 17th nationally in EPA, to show up on Saturday.

ASU is a legitimate top 25 football team and one of the best stories in college football, but if BYU’s record is a fluke, then so is ASU’s. They have one win against a P4 team by over 10 points against BYU’s three teams and one win against a bowl-eligible team against BYU’s three. Think BYU got lucky with five defensive/special teams TDs this season? ASU also has five, including two from a 35-31 victory over UCF two weeks ago in Tempe. ASU was certainly on the rise after defeating 16th-ranked Kansas State 24-14 in Manhattan, but scored just 3 points in the final 40 minutes of the game.

My intention is not to discredit anything about Arizona State’s magical run. I bring up either of these to show that these two teams aren’t that different, even though Arizona State is nationally viewed as the better team going in the opposite direction to BYU. BYU is as good as Arizona State. BYU isn’t overmatched or spiraled. Both teams are good. Both teams deserve to advance to the Big 12 championship game. The only difference is that Arizona State hasn’t spent the last six weeks under a national microscope while being called cheats every time they play a close game.

This is one of the most important regular season football games BYU has ever played, and I believe they will meet their moment. I get that ASU got a big win last week and BYU had a big loss, but just as painfully missing a bowl game is the best thing for the program in 2023, a loss might be the best thing to reset the BYU football program . Now.

The biggest reason I have confidence in this game is Jay Hill and the defense. While Hill has film to prepare, the defense has yet to give up more than 19 points to the No. 4 ranked opponent. Arizona State has a solid offense, but is quite similar to BYU’s in many ways, statistically and philosophically. Both are averaging around 6 yards per play and around 30 points per game. Both are built around a relentless running game and timely quarterback play. I liked BYU’s defense in this matchup. Offensively, BYU has a clear weakness that it can exploit. Retzlaff’s 158.7 passing efficiency rating against the standard offense could pose major problems for a very conservative ASU defense.

Arizona State is a great football team that could cause BYU problems if their play on the field deteriorates, but I think BYU is proving that the only fluke thing about the season was their loss last week.

BYU 28 – 24 ASU