College Football Best Bets Week 13: Buried Treasure

The college football season is coming to an end, which is too bad because my Triple Option college football picks have been on a roll, going 15-9 over the last eight weeks.

This week I’m featuring a variation on the SEC halftime Under theme, this time for the biggest game of the week. “Drop the Watch” is in full force for Oklahoma State and East Carolina is heading into next season.

Here’s me college football picks For Week 13.

College football best bets Week 13

Elections were held on 11-22. Click on each selection to read the full analysis.

College football Week 13 best bets

Best bet #1: Indiana-Ohio State Under 26.5 Halftime total

Best odds: +100 at bet365

The SEC has no games in the first half of the week, but we’ll settle for this huge Big Ten battle between the two teams. Indiana Hoosiers And Ohio State Buckeyes.

What Curt Cignetti has done in his first year at Indiana has been incredible, and his 10-0 start has already earned him a big raise to keep other programs from poaching him.

Offensively, the Hoosiers are led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The former Ohio Bobcats QB threw for 2,410 yards with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. But Indiana also has balance with running backs Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawson.

You might not expect it, but Indiana enters this matchup leading the nation in offensive success rate and ranking third in EPA/play.

However, the Hoosiers are playing the toughest defense they’ve seen all season last season when they hosted the Michigan Wolverines. The Wolverines limited Indiana to just 20 points, rushing for 40 yards on 28 attempts and holding Rourke to 206 yards on 7.3 yards per attempt.

I’m not going too far by saying Ohio State has a better defense than Michigan. The Buckeyes enter this game at 9-1 with their only road loss by one point against top-seeded Oregon. They also have arguably the best defensive front seven in college football, entering this game ranked second in opponent EPA/play and fourth in defensive success rate.

Offensively, freshman phenom Jerimiah Smith is unrealistic, but the Buckeyes really rely on the running game, with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson in top form.

But sledding won’t be easy, as the Hoosiers’ defense might be the most underrated unit in this game. Indiana ranks ninth in defensive success rate.

Chip Kelly on his back, two excellent defenses and Curt Cignetti’s great game plan. The first half will be a competitive and low-scoring match. Give me the gold of the first half, especially at even money.

Best bet #2: Texas Tech -3.5

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

We’ve talked a lot about teams on the “Leave the Watch” show the last few weeks. You can remove Mike Gundy’s “Clock” Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Oklahoma State vs. this week’s game Texas Tech Red Raiders We lost seven games in a row. They are 1-6 against the spread in those games, and four of those losses have come by scoring at least three goals. And now bowl eligibility is long gone. So what will the Pokes do from here?

Ollie Gordon and the offense are broken. A year after rushing for 1,732 yards on 6.1 yards per carry, he had just 714 yards and 4.2 yards per carry in 10 games. The Pokes have scored 21 points or fewer in the last seven games.

But it’s Oklahoma State’s defense that will be the problem. The Cowboys rank 112th in defensive success rate and I’m not sure they can contain the best running back in this game. This is the back of Red Raiders star Tahj Brooks.

Brooks rumbled for 1,184 yards on 5.0 yards per carry while finding the end zone 11 times. He will face a Pokes defense that ranks 99th in EPA/rush rating and 90th in success rate against the rush.

Meanwhile, quarterback Behern Morton provides offensive balance for the Red Raiders, and OK State is even worse at defending the pass, ranking 121st in dropback success rate and 103rd in EPA/dropbacks.

Texas Tech will be scolded after letting the lead slip away from them last week against Colorado. So the Red Raiders will get some revenge against a Cowboys team that appears to be gearing up for the season. I’ll leave the short chalk to Texas Tech here.

Best bet #3: East Carolina moneyline

Best odds: +125 at BetMGM

While we’re spending a lot of time on teams that are “Off Watch” at this point in the season, you should also keep your eyes open for teams that are trying to get things going for next season.

For this reason East Carolina Pirates get my attention It looks like the Pirates may have found something in sophomore quarterback Katin Houser. The Michigan State transfer delays that.

Houser made his first start against Army on October 19, and although ECU lost the game, Houser went 24-for-38 for 282 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Since then, Pirates have not lost any of their matches and have collected at least 38 points in each match.

Houser has now thrown for 1,208 yards with 14 touchdowns and six picks in just four games. The Pirates now have an offense as well as a defense that ranks 24th in success rate, and I expect Houser and ECU to continue to prepare against the opposing team this week. North Texas Average Green.

North Texas comes into this matchup with four straight losses (1-3 ATS) thanks to a really tough defense. The Mean Green gave up 45 or more points in three of those four losses. As a result, they rank 112th in EPA/plays allowed and 103rd in defensive success rate. Against the pass, the Mean Green ranks 79th in success rate and 94th in EPA/return.

Houser stabilizes the Pirates’ offense, and I’m not sure if sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly yet. North Texas takes three points at home here, but I believe the wrong team was picked.

I think East Carolina will win this one outright and bet on the Pirates in this AAC matchup on Saturday afternoon.

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College football odds for week 13

Here it is college football odds for this week.

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