Analysis: Will Iran Conduct a Land Operation from Syria to Israel?

A month has passed since Israel’s unprecedented attack on twenty different targets across Iran, the scope of which is slowly becoming clear, and Iran is still waiting to respond due to compelling circumstances. Iran’s air defense systems were significantly damaged in the attack, and the US elections also contributed to the postponement of the attack as Tehran did not want to increase Trump’s chances of winning. Various senior Iranian officials are again expressing Tehran’s desire to respond with a third direct attack on Israel, following attacks in April and October. As part of the media debate on the issue in Iran, daily newspaper KhorassanIn his article dated Thursday, November 21, affiliated with the conservative camp, he called on the Iranian regime to launch a ground attack on Israel from Syria’s Golan Heights.

The newspaper announced that pro-Iran Shiite militias were already deployed in this region, and that Assad was expected to approve such an action since he had the right to take military action to liberate the Golan Heights. The Daily estimates that such an attack is already in the planning stages; This draft is supported by the fact that it was discussed in recent meetings in Damascus and Tehran between Defense Minister Aziz Nasserzade and Iranian leader Ali Khamenei’s deputy Ali Larijani, as well as Assad and the Syrian Foreign Minister and senior officials in Tehran. Khorassan He also expressed concern for the life of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if the draft is to be implemented and urged Tehran to attach great importance to protecting it from Israel.

Iran’s “toolbox” in Syria is rich and diverse and includes the Imam Hossein Division, established in 2016 under the command of then-Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. The division consists of thousands of agents of various nationalities from across the Middle East. Afghan Fatemiyoun, Pakistani Zainabiyoun and, of course, the pro-Iran militias of the Lebanese Hezbollah are also operating in Syria. In addition, in recent months, dozens of Houthi militants have attempted to invade Israel by land via the Syrian border with the help of the Quds Force; Tehran may choose to use them if it truly wants to advance a ground invasion of Israel.

It should be noted that Khorassan The article also alleged that senior Hezbollah figures, led by senior commander Ibrahim Aqeel, who was killed by the IDF on September 20, were planning a ground attack on Israel from the Syrian Golan Heights in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. .

However, according to the newspaper, the planned attack was foiled by Israel’s pre-emptive strike. The newspaper explained that the purpose of the ground attack could not be to “liberate” the Golan Heights, but rather to pressure Israel to end the war on Hamas and Hezbollah’s terms. As Khorasan admits, Iranian missile attacks on Israel have limited success in this respect and cannot serve the purpose of stopping the war and forcing Israel to accept a ceasefire within the Axis of Resistance.

How should Israel respond?

As a lesson from the October 7 massacre, Israel cannot ignore that Tehran is again toying with the idea of ​​planning a land invasion of Israel. Alongside the ongoing IDF initiative on the Syrian side of the border, Israel must prepare diplomatically and militarily to make clear to both Iran and Assad that they will bear all the consequences if the plan is implemented. Despite the ongoing attack on senior members of the “Golan Dossier,” the Hezbollah force responsible for establishing a terrorist infrastructure in the Syrian Golan, Iran still has motivation to operate on the ground through Syria. Therefore, in addition to ongoing fortifications along the Golan Heights border, Israel should make it clear to Iranian leaders that Israel will continue to directly attack Iran, including against sensitive targets across the country and senior members of the Quds Force operating in the region.

Israel should also make clear that his regime will pay a heavy price for carrying out this potential attack, in order to pressure Assad to reject Iran’s request to operate from its territory. Israel could also work with Russia to rein in Assad and make it difficult for him to allow Iran to plan a ground invasion, explaining that the consequences of such an attack would lead to chaos in Syria, which would lead to him losing control over the country. .

Another possible trump card for Israel is the United Arab Emirates, which maintains close ties with Assad. According to the information obtained, immediately after the Iron Swords war, the UAE, in coordination with the Biden administration, conveyed the following message to Assad: Do not intervene in the war in Gaza. Israel appears to have a lot of room for maneuver against Assad, especially since the Syrian front is the least active of the seven theaters fighting against Israel in the current war.

The author is a researcher on Iran, Hezbollah and Shiite militias at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.