Week 14’s Best College Football Picks Across the Spread

As we enter the last week of the regular season, we are close to winning our race to reach 40.

SI Betting Insider Reed Wallach had a strong week, extending his record to 39 of 65 picks this season, ahead of SI Senior Writer Pat Forde, who had an impressive 33 of 65 picks. Where will the duo finish the season after 14 weeks?

While there are plenty of competitive matchups with varying odds for this weekend (bowl eligibility, conference titles, and the College Football Playoff), here are our picks for the final week of the season.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Pat’s Wins: 33

Nebraska-Iowa Prediction and Election

Election: Iowa -5.5

The Hawkeyes won every Big Ten home game by at least 24 points. The Cornhuskers have lost three straight Big Ten road games. Kirk Ferentz and defensive coordinator Phil Parker will have some things to offer for freshman Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola, and the Iowa running game will be enough to carry the day in a cold, low-scoring game.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Prediction and Election

Pick: Georgia Tech +19.5

The Bulldogs have been an inconsistent team after years of reliability, and that’s a huge number. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets upset the kings under Brent Key. Tech freshman quarterback Aaron Philo continues to improve by providing veteran Haynes King with a change of pace spark. The Jackets have also been off since last Thursday, so they have the advantage of rest against Georgia.

Miami (Florida) vs. Syracuse Prediction and Election

Pick: Syracuse +11

Everything is at stake for the Hurricanes, but it’s a tricky situation; Being away against a good team in a noisy environment. I expect a clash between Kyle McCord and Cam Ward, two quarterbacks to take their chances in the process. Miami will probably win, but giving up more than 10 points is too much.

Clemson-South Carolina Prediction and Pick

Pick: South Carolina +3

The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in the country, and they still have something to play for on the cusp of the playoffs. Of course, Clemson is also on that sideline, but South Carolina has stepped up its offense in the last month. They ran four games averaging seven yards per play as quarterback LaNorris Sellers started out as a dual-threat threat.

Texas – Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas -5.5

With so much to play for, no one will lack motivation. But Texas A&M played improbably for weeks, only to snap back to reality by losing its last two SEC games. The Aggies gave up a combined 999 yards and seven yards per game to South Carolina and Auburn. Texas, which won the Big 12 last year and played in the College Football Playoff, has better personnel and more experienced big-game personnel.

Reed Wins: 39

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Prediction and Election

Pick: Georgia Tech +19.5

Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets remain a fantastic underdog throughout his tenure.

Georgia Tech is 13-6 against the number when scoring points, including 10 outright forfeits. While I wouldn’t go for the money line here, I think there are routes to the Ramblin’ Wreck that will keep it close.

First, the team found its footing despite the risk of starting quarterback Haynes King. The team used freshman Andrew Philo most of the time on passing downs, and he showed off a lively arm. While this is a big step up in the rivalry, the Georgia rushing defense has lacked discipline of late, including allowing UMass over 200 yards on the ground last week.

On the other hand, the Yellow Jackets’ defense has been solid all season long, ranking 54th in EPA/Play and being incredibly strong against the run. The team may be behind the sticks early as Georgia cannot provide pressure on the field and often still a shaky passing game may not be able to help this team gain a margin.

Look for Georgia Tech to shorten this game and stay competitive in this game; Georgia is likely eyeing the SEC Championship Game next season.

Michigan-Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State -20.5

In Ohio State’s top-five win over Indiana at the end of Week 13, we saw the Buckeyes looking to gain a margin over their opponent with a late score in the final minutes.

Except for the first drive of the game, in which the Hoosiers’ elite offense advanced 70 yards down the field, the team averaged less than two yards per play.

The Buckeyes defense will have little trouble shutting down a Michigan offense that doesn’t have a viable passing game, ranks 116th in EPA/Play, and is ahead in that regard.

The blitz-happy Michigan defense has been strong at times, but I’m not sure the team can overcome Will Howard and the underwhelming Buckeyes offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, the Kansas State transfer had a 72% completion percentage on offense this season and a passer rating of 80.4; He threw 14 touchdown passes and only one interception.

If last week was any indication, Ohio State wouldn’t be trailing at home.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Selection

Pick: Vanderbilt +11

Vanderbilt has done an outstanding job all season long of limiting big plays and possessions in the game; The team’s mistakes were limited and they were able to stay on the field.

When a team with less possession is able to stop in time, it becomes more difficult to gain a margin. While the Tennessee defensive line is among the best in the country, the Vanderbilt offense has been able to rebound and put together quality carries in SEC play. The ‘Dores rank 52nd in the nation for more than two points per drive.

Tennessee’s offense has fallen well short of expectations all season long as the team relies on leader Dylan Sampson to shoulder the load. Sampson and the Tennessee ground game average over five yards per carry, but the Commodores defense ranks among the top 50 rushing defenses in terms of EPA/Game.

Vanderbilt has been a more than 10-point underdog in all six games, with the market failing to match this team’s true strength rating. While Tennessee has a significant talent advantage, I believe Vandy has the means to make the Vols sweat in the College Football Playoff.

With less possession this season and an offense that has been inconsistent at times, I believe the underdog team, which ranks only 54th in EPA/Play, can stay close once again.

Kansas State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Kansas State +3

The Iowa State rushing defense remains a major problem, being outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush and allowing more than five yards per carry.

The Wildcats looked to be in midseason form with a healthy Avery Johnson rushing for 72 yards against Cincinnati last week, and I believe he can come up big in that too to keep this game competitive.

Kansas State is arguably one of the top five rushing units in the country; He averages nearly six yards per carry and ranks 22nd in EPA/Rush rankings; because Johnson not only outshines DJ Giddens but also poses a dynamic threat.

I’ll take the better team with the plus matchup to keep this one close and potentially ruin ISU’s Big 12 title hopes.

New Mexico – Hawaii Forecast and Selection

Pick: New Mexico -2

Head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s group is one win away from making the bowl, and I believe the team picked up its sixth win on the island Saturday night against Hawai’i in the final game of the regular season.

The Rainbow Warriors may start freshman Micah Alejado in this game, which leaves some questions about the effectiveness of the team’s offense, but the team will face this Lobos offense either way.

New Mexico ranks seventh in yards per play with the highest yards per carry mark in the nation and is clocking in at nearly seven yards per rush. With Devon Dampier having a week to prepare and design a strong offense, I think the Lobos have a chance to move the ball against Hawaii’s middle rush defense.

The Lobos’ defense has been a concern all season, but that’s the point I made for this week as a first-year head coach tries to get his team to a bowl game for the first time since 2015.

Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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