Why Volodymyr Zelensky Should Seek Good Personal Relations with Donald Trump and Why He Might Be Successful

Personal relationships are vital in diplomacy and international relations. After the US presidential election, the personal factor may prove vital in making US-Ukraine relations beneficial to both parties. Both Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky have the potential to build a strong personal relationship that will help shape positive relations between the two countries.

In the current turbulent geopolitical climate, strong ties between the United States and Ukraine could greatly impact the global landscape. But realizing mutual benefits requires understanding the goals and possible outcomes of such cooperation. And this will largely depend on how the US and Ukrainian presidents conduct their dialogue.

Ukraine Experience

Ukraine already has experience of good personal relations between presidents, which has long radically changed bilateral relations.

When Ukraine became independent, cooperation and friendship between Poland and Ukraine remained more a formality than a reality for several years.

A radical change took place after Aleksander Kwaśniewski was elected president of Poland in 1995. As a result of its vision of Ukraine as a strategic partner and its good personal relations with Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, Poland has become one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters in Europe.

This approach could also work for future U.S.-Ukraine relations if the importance of bilateral cooperation and the development of good personal relations at the presidential level is recognized.

The interlocutors of both states can play a major role in foreign relations and security. The United States has been an important ally of Ukraine in its war against Russia. Kiev recognizes that maintaining a solid partnership with the United States, the world’s most powerful country, is vital to its defense against a formidable military power like Russia. Therefore, Ukraine’s foreign policy should focus on establishing and maintaining strong ties with the United States.

How the war in Ukraine ends could shape the future global order. If global powers neglect the illegal annexation of territory, this will mean that they may launch wars against states whose territorial claims are not adequately supported. The emerging scenario involves China, a major rival of the United States, and China’s relations with Taiwan.

It is imperative for Washington that the end of the war in Ukraine does not jeopardize US global leadership. Many U.S. citizens do not attach much importance to foreign affairs compared to domestic issues, including the economy. But a country cannot be great in the modern world without being a global leader. Global leadership and a strong economy are intrinsically linked.

Perspective on Ukraine is Changing

Many people in Ukraine are worried about a possible change in US attitude towards Russia and Ukraine and whether a change of administration will lead to Ukraine’s defeat. However, Russia has now formed an alliance with North Korea and Iran, posing a danger to the entire democratic world, including the United States. As a result, the attitudes, narratives and strategies previously employed against Russia’s aggression in Ukraine are no longer valid.

Some mistakes of US presidents in the past had the effect of threatening Ukraine’s national security in favor of Russia. Just weeks before Ukraine gained independence in 1991, President George H. W. Bush urged Kiev not to leave the USSR. Although 92 percent of Ukrainians voted for independence in a referendum a few months ago, President Bush warned against what he called “suicidal nationalism.”

President Clinton supported the denuclearization of Ukraine. under 1994 Budapest MemorandumUkraine has agreed to give up its world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. A significant amount of nuclear weapons was sent to Russia. Thirty years later, Bill Clinton expressed his regret on this decision.

In 1994, Eduard Shevardnadze, the last foreign minister of the USSR, it was believed He said that even possessing a single nuclear missile would be enough to guarantee Ukraine’s independence from Russia’s strategic considerations. In 2010, during Barack Obama’s administration, Ukraine transferred to the United States the last batch of enriched uranium sufficient to produce two nuclear missiles.

When Russia annexed Crimea and launched a war in Donbas in 2014, Obama’s cabinet feared escalation and refrained from supplying arms to Ukraine. Then even President Joe Biden criticized Obama’s weak response.

In contrast, Donald Trump was the first US president to authorize arms supplies to Ukraine during his previous administration. These supplies included Javelins, portable anti-tank missiles that were very helpful in combating Russian troops in the first weeks of the occupation.

Everyone is guessing what Trump’s policy will be regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. Donald Trump has often stated that if he were president, the war would not start and would end very quickly. Naturally, Kyiv is worried that this decision will not come at the expense of Ukraine.

A Dialogue Based on Understanding

Both sides need a productive dialogue between presidents based on deep mutual understanding. This type of dialogue is necessary for both states to benefit from cooperation.

Both Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have experience in dialogue as leaders of their countries. But in 2019-2020, the context was different. Russia is currently waging a full-scale war in Ukraine and has aligned itself with Iran, North Korea and China.

Both presidents have more similarities than it seems at first. Each became president with no prior political experience after careers in business and management. Each faced competition from established professional politicians. Their opponents were skeptical of their views. It seems like they’re both natural winners.

Another common feature of both presidents is their use of personal relationships in diplomacy. This may be due to their previous history of being in business.

All of this reveals the potential for a dialogue between the presidents in which they will explore how bilateral cooperation can be win-win for both countries. Kiev will try to establish good relations with Washington, and Ukrainian diplomats should heed this bridge of personal relations. Trump’s policy toward Ukraine during his first presidency could lay a good foundation for a strong personal relationship and fruitful dialogue between the two countries.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.