US voters worried about post-election violence and efforts to overturn results: poll

Gary Fields, Ali Swenson and Linley Sanders
| Associated Press

washington — American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep unease about what could happen, including the potential for political violence, attempts to overturn the election results and its broader implications for democracy, according to a new poll.

The findings of the poll, conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, point to persistent concerns about the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, nearly four years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results inspired a mob of his supporters to seize power peacefully. storming the U.S. Capitol in a violent attempt to stop the transfer.

Nearly 4 in 10 registered voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election. A similar proportion are concerned about legal efforts in this direction. And nearly 1 in 3 voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to prevent results from being finalized.

Relatively few voters (about a third or less) are “not very interested” or “not at all interested” in what is going on.

Trump has continued to lie about the fraud that cost him re-election four years ago and is once again estimating that he could only lose this time if the election is rigged, a strategy he has employed since his first run for office. His allies and the Republican National Committee he reshaped filed lawsuits across the country; These cases may be the beginning of legal difficulties that may be encountered after the election if he loses.

Aostara Kaye of Downey, Calif., said of Trump: “I thought after January 6, 2021, the GOP would have the common sense to reject him as a candidate.” “And since they didn’t, I think it emboldened him to think he could do anything, and they’re still going to stick with him.”

Most voters think Trump won’t give up if he loses

Trump’s sweeping attempts to reject the will of the voters and stay in power after his loss in 2020 have led to concerns that he will once again be unable to concede if he loses to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Nearly 9 in 10 voters said the loser of the presidential election must surrender once each state vote count is completed and legal challenges are resolved; That includes nearly 8 in 10 Republicans. But only a third of voters expect Trump to accept the results and concede if he loses.

Democrats and Republicans have very different views on this issue: About two-thirds of Republican voters think Trump would agree, while only 1 in 10 Democrats do.

The same concern does not apply to Harris. Nearly 8 in 10 voters, including a majority of Republican voters, said Harris would accept the results and accept them if she lost the election.

Democrats and Republicans divided over who will undermine democracy

Members of both parties have broad concerns about how American democracy will fare depending on the outcome of the November election.

Overall, about half of voters believe Trump would “a lot” or “somewhat” undermine democracy in the United States if he wins, while nearly 4 in 10 said the same about Harris.

It’s no surprise that Americans are deeply divided along ideological lines. Nearly 8 in 10 Republicans said a new Trump presidency would strengthen democracy “very much” or “somewhat,” while a similar share of Democrats said the same about Harris’ presidency.

Nearly 9 in 10 voters in both parties said the opposing party’s candidate would weaken democracy at least “somewhat” if elected.

Kaye, a retired health system employee, called Trump “an existential threat to the Constitution.” One possibility that frightens him is that if Trump wins, his new administration might not have the guardrails that existed in the previous administration.

Debra Apodaca, a 60-year-old Republican voter from Tucson, Arizona, said Harris is a bigger threat to democracy. President Joe Biden said his administration prioritized foreign aid too much and failed to pay attention to its own people.

“We send our tax dollars everywhere. Do not stay here. Why aren’t we interested in America?” he said. “Why should we pay taxes if we just ship it?”

That lack of concern extends to the border, he said, adding that a Harris win would be “the end of the Border Patrol.”

The Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol is a dividing line

One of the things that divides voters in their views on American democracy is the attack on the US Capitol on January 6 and who is to blame. Democrats and independents are much more likely than Republican voters to attribute “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of responsibility to Trump.

Susan Ohde, an independent voter from Chicago and a retiree in the financial industry, said she was concerned about “crazy people buying into the misinformation they’re being fed,” leading to another attack like this.

Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi of Yucaipa, California, said other issues are more important in this year’s election. He said his main concern is the economy and that he feels that high prices, especially in his state, are chasing businesses and creating dependency on the government. Minardi, the child and family services advocate, said it was an addiction that Harris wanted to continue.

Views on the January 6 attack are not the only views on which voters are divided along ideological lines. The majority of Republicans who follow Trump’s lead argue that Biden was not legitimately elected. Nearly all Democrats and 7 in 10 independents believe Biden was legitimately elected.

Other aspects of the political system are also divisive

This year’s presidential campaign has highlighted an aspect of the American political system that some believe is undemocratic: the use of the Electoral College to choose the president rather than the popular vote. Trump and Harris concentrated their campaign events and advertising in seven battleground states that represent just 18% of the nation’s population.

Nearly half of voters think the possibility that a candidate can win the Electoral College and become president but lose the popular vote is a “big problem” in U.S. elections. As with many other issues, the question also reveals a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say the potential for an Electoral College-popular vote split is a big problem, compared with about one-third of Republicans.

Debra Christensen, 54, a home health nurse and Democrat from Watertown, Wisconsin, opposes the Electoral College vote, which could give Trump the White House even if he loses the popular vote for a third time.

“Nowadays, with technology as it is, why can’t we have one vote per person?” he said.

The survey of 1,072 adults was conducted Oct. 11-14, 2024, using a sample from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Most voters think Trump won’t give up if he loses

Democrats and Republicans divided over who will undermine democracy

The Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol is a dividing line

Other aspects of the political system are also divisive

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