Democrats Believe This Could Be an Abortion Election

IThe reason Kamala Harris will be elected the first female President will be because female voters will place her in the Oval Office. And if female voters put him there, it will be largely because of abortion.

In the final days of a deadlocked campaign, the Vice President is traveling to Texas, the state his campaign has called “ground zero for Trump’s extreme abortion bans,” to deliver a speech on reproductive freedom Friday evening. By turning to abortion, Harris is trying to mobilize the voters who have given Democrats a string of election victories since former President Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016: angry women.

When voters are asked in surveys about issues that are very important to them, abortion delays back issues such as economy. But this is an exciting issue where Democrats have a clear advantage. The Harris campaign sees abortion as key to both strengthening its base and convincing undecided voters. And still undecided voters believe reproductive rights are the most salient issue, especially for non-college white women.

“Abortion works as both a matter of persuasion and mobilization,” says veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “The last voters who need to be mobilized have very little information and the abortion issue is very clear.”

Read more: Brother Harris Fights for His Vote.

Harris’ late visit to Texas is not a long-term attempt to win the red state. This was intended as a way to highlight additional attacks on reproductive rights that voters may face in Trump’s second presidency. The Vice President will be joined by people who have faced a series of devastating consequences due to abortion bans, including Amanda and Josh Zurawski, a Texas couple who challenged Texas’ restrictive law after Amanda was denied reproductive care, and Shanette Williams, Amber Nicole’s mother. Thurman, who died after being denied abortion care in Georgia.

The campaign is also running new ads about the impact of abortion bans on women’s health and future fertility. One of them features a woman named Ondrea. almost died of sepsis After being denied a medically necessary abortion, she may never get pregnant again. another one Highlights role in Trump’s ouster Roe v. wade.

The abortion-focused event in Houston is part of a broader effort to mobilize the female base and persuade undecided voters to participate. While in Texas, Harris will meet with popular podcaster Brené Brown, who has a mostly female but non-political audience. Beyonce is scheduled to perform at the Houston event on Friday to support the Harris-Walz ticket, bringing a dose of star power from one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

It’s all part of her closing argument for mobilizing women in an election that featured a striking and consistent gender divide. Women prefer Harris by a margin of 54 to 42 percent New York’s latest situation Times/Siena survey Released Friday, men favor Trump by 55% to 41%. While Trump turns to the “manosphere” to motivate low-propensity male voters, Harris’ closing argument targets female voters who have a track record of participating in elections. There are early signs that his strategy will work. In battleground states, female voters far outpace men in early voting Data collected by NBC News.

For many of these women, Lake says, abortion is a powerful persuasion tool because it can provide a justification for leaving husbands who might vote for Trump. Their husbands may believe Trump might be better for the economy, but “but abortion is a big deal, too.” You Learn more about,” says Lake. “It gives women the power to resist subtle or subtle pressure from their husbands.”

Harris hopes this issue can help her make progress, especially with non-college white women. Trump won over women without college degrees by 27 points But this time, Harris’ campaign believes they have significantly narrowed her lead. According to an early October poll, 70% of white non-college men say they plan to vote for Trump, while only 55% of white non-college women do so. Marist42% plan to vote for Harris. But it is unclear whether these gains are real: another last Marist poleI have encountered non-college white women who behaved much the same as non-college white men.

Read more: Harris Intensifies Address to Disgruntled Republicans.

Winning back some of the white women who leaned toward Trump in 2016 and 2020 could be enough to swing the election in Harris’ favor, especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Blue Wall states with high rates of voters without college degrees. The campaign believes it can win over undecided female voters by offering special economic plans for middle-class women, such as abortion rights as well as assistance for caregivers. As one campaign official put it: “We’re trying to tell these women: You don’t actually have to choose; you can have it both.” And if enough non-college white women reject Trump, the campaign official says, “that’s the game.”

Carolyn Eberly, who runs a local chapter of the progressive group Indivisible in North Carolina’s Mecklenburg County, said the Supreme Court dobbs The decision led to an influx of new members to his group, which is now campaigning to unseat a local anti-abortion state lawmaker in their district. Eberly says she hears a lot about abortion while knocking on doors, even from her more conservative neighbors. “They’re unconnected, but they’re leaning to the right,” Eberly says. “But they tell me, ‘This isn’t right, women need to be able to choose.'”

Women were central to Democratic victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and some Democratic strategists suggest pollsters may be underestimating the likelihood of these women coming out in force against the former President one last time. “I don’t know if all these polls reflect the concentration of female voters this election cycle,” says Democratic strategist Rebecca Katz. “I think they undercounted Trump voters twice in a row; I don’t think they will make the same mistake this time. I think they underestimated the density of female voters. “I think women will show up too.”