Harris is in serious trouble if the popular vote comes close

Trump and Harris tied as of Friday RealClearPolitics average From national polls, Harris had consistently led the former president since August 5, and had increased her lead to as much as two points by October 8.

Final New York Times/Siena The poll, released Friday, found Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent each. recently Wall Street Magazine polling shows Trump leading 49% to 46% and CNBC polling showing Trump leading 48% to 46%. Harris recently led Reuters/Ipsos polls are 48% to 45%, but the race is in full contention nationally, as are swing state polls.

National polls and national popular votes no longer mean anything when it comes to who will be elected president. But the state of national polls can tell us a thing or two about this. Electoral College and compete for 270 electoral votes. And the bottom line is this: If national polls are this tight, Harris is in serious trouble.

In the last two election cycles, the Electoral College has been biased against Republicans. both Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden won the national popular vote, but Clinton did so by just two points in her losing 2016 campaign. Biden, on the other hand, won the popular vote by four and a half points, but barely trailed by nearly 40,000 total votes in the Electoral College in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. If he had lost all three states, he would not have received the 270 delegate votes, but he would still easily carry the popular vote.

Now, there is significant evidence to show that the Electoral College is committed to this issue. Republican The bias won’t be as pronounced as it was four years ago, but Harris will likely need to win the national popular vote by at least two points if she hopes to win the “Rust Belt” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Here’s why: Trump’s national strength is explained in part by his doing better in the safe Democratic states of New York and California and the safe Republican states of Texas, Florida and Ohio. Essentially, these states that Trump will surely lose or win eliminate Electoral College bias.

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But changes in voter behavior do not occur in a vacuum. If Trump expanded his margins by a wide margin in safe states, it is unlikely that such a swing, even if relatively smaller, would not also occur in key states. Moreover, it’s worth noting that national polls tend to be closer to the mark under Trump, while other state polls grossly underestimate Trump’s strength.

In short, if Harris loses or barely wins the national popular vote, the odds of her prevailing in the Electoral College are extremely slim. He better hope that, unlike the last two presidential elections, the polls are overestimating Trump’s strength among voters.