Israel and Iran may not want full-scale war right now, but it may be difficult to avoid

Idea

Special Correspondent

Israel may have enough to deal with in Lebanon and Gaza, but the guarantee of full US support could change other parameters.

26 October 2024, 13:19(Updated 13:45)

A year ago, an attack by 100 Israeli warplanes and unmanned drones on 20 sites in Syria and Iraq, as well as in Iran, would have caused intense alarm among governments around the world.

But when Israel finally carried out long-awaited airstrikes on Iran and its allies early Saturday morning, there was international relief that they were not targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil industry. Instead, the military headquarters concentrated on air defense systems and a missile production facility. Iran said two of its soldiers were killed in attacks on three Iranian provinces (Tehran, Ilam and Khuzestan), but other than that the damage was light.

Israel’s attacks appear to mark the end of the current phase of escalation between Israel and Iran, which has escalated into an all-out regional war. Israel said the airstrike was over, and a senior US official was quoted as saying “this must be the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran.” The fact that Israel did not give any warning to the Israeli public about taking security measures against counter-attacks by Iranian missiles shows that Tel Aviv did not expect such a thing to happen.

Desperately trying to avoid a full-scale military conflict with a militarily superior Israel backed by the United States, Iran is downplaying the Israeli attack. Tehran international airport reopened to flights at 9 a.m., schools were open and sporting events were continuing.

The Israeli strike was less than what some Israeli political leaders had demanded after 180 Iranian ballistic missiles were fired at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for the assassination three weeks earlier. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallahwith senior Iranian military commanders in Beirut.

Possible targets included Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as its oil industry; The threat to the latter caused crude oil prices to rise briefly. President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken have strongly opposed it, trying to prevent the outbreak of a regional war in the Middle East that would coincide with the US presidential election on November 5. Biden’s claim that he was bringing order to the world after the chaos of Donald Trump’s last presidency was already looking pretty weak.

It is unclear whether Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently considering attacking Iran’s nuclear and oil targets, but fears that he might do so have proven a useful way of deflecting international criticism of Israel’s escalating aggression against Gaza and Lebanon.

UN human rights chief Volker Turk says the “darkest moment” of the year-long Gaza conflict was in the northern Gaza Strip, when Israel launched a ground offensive against Hamas to prevent its fighters from regrouping. But critics say ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people continues. “As we speak, the Israeli army is exposing an entire population to bombing, siege and starvation,” Turk said. He called on world leaders to take action, saying states had a duty to ensure respect for international humanitarian law under the Geneva Conventions.

Meanwhile, the head of the World Health Organization, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that during the Israeli attack, the WHO lost contact with the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia, which was overwhelmed with almost 200 patients at the time of the attack in nearby Jabalia.

Israel is currently fighting three wars in the region, directly on the ground, in the air in Gaza and Lebanon, and more periodically with Iran. However, none of these conflicts show any signs of ending as they contaminate each other and increase the levels of hatred and violence. Israel suffered heavy losses Hamas And HezbollahWhile the brutality of Israeli attacks and heavy civilian casualties have allowed the organizations to recruit more fighters, this situation does not seem to bankrupt either of them.

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Israeli government may calculate US election viability Donald Trump to be the next president. He had already criticized Biden for not encouraging Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities as a primary target. At the same time, Trump’s impulsive outbursts are not a serious commitment to Israel, and Trump has been careful during his presidency not to provoke Iran to the point of all-out war.

Iran seeks, and often fails to find, a military action plan that would deter Israel and the United States without giving Israel the opportunity to further escalate the conflict. The ballistic missile attack on Israel on 1 October demonstrated that Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ defense system was not impenetrable and led the US to send an advanced missile defense system to Israel, manning 100 US troops; this potentially led to direct US military intervention in Israel. Conflict with Iran.

At the same time, Iran hopes not to show weakness by not responding effectively to Israel’s successive coups, exposing the Iranian-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ as a paper tiger.

It is a measure of the extent to which war has become the norm across much of the Middle East that foreign governments and media pay little attention to Israel’s overnight airstrikes on Iran as well as Syria and Iraq. All of these conflicts provide points of friction that can escalate the conflict at any time.

“We are focused on our combat objectives in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement. “It is Iran that continues to push for broader escalation in the region.” In reality, it was Israel that assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 and earlier killed two senior Iranian generals in an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. But it may be true that Israel thinks it has enough in Gaza and Lebanon for the moment, and if it were to also fight Iran, it would want the guarantee of full US military intervention. side.