Three Reasons Why the Packers Beat the Jaguars

GREEN BAY, Wisconsin – Considered preseason Super Bowl contenders, the Green Bay Packers appear to have found their groove.

They haven’t been dominant, but the Packers (5-2) have won three straight games heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).

The Jaguars are also playing better with two wins in their last three games, but there are three reasons why the Packers should win again heading into next week’s showdown against the Detroit Lions.

Big Play Offense Versus Big Play Defense

Big plays win games, and that’s where the Packers have a huge advantage.

The Packers rank third in the NFL in explosive plays defined as an 18-yard pass or a 12-yard run. The Packers rank seventh in explosive passes with 33 points and second in explosive runs with 26 points.

In 20-yard plays, Green Bay’s offense ranks second with 33 passing yards. When he breaks, he ranks second with 25 passes and sixth with eight runs.

Jacksonville’s defense ranks second to last, allowing 33 20-yard plays, 30 of which came through the air. They are also allowed a league-worst six 20-yard field goals. Much of that damage was caused by the exit of top cornerback Tyson Campbell from the lineup; He returned to the field last week and nearly intercepted a pass in a 32-16 win over New England.

But even with Campbell, rookie quarterback Drake Maye threw for 276 yards with a 109.7 passer rating.

There should be plenty of opportunities for Love, especially with Green Bay’s balanced offense.

“He’s a really good football player,” Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said of Love. “He runs the position and the offense. He dominates everything. He knows where to go in football. Matt did a great job of attacking, scheming and putting them in position (making plays).

“The guy can make every shot. The offense, obviously, has been built since the beginning of his career when he started. You see this progressing. He can then get out of trouble with his legs. You saw him in the Philly game, escaping the pocket and throwing the deep ball. His ability to move and shoot while running makes him an elite player at the position. Of course it will be a good fight.”

An overlooked advantage for the Packers. Love ranks seventh in yards after the catch per completion, while the Jaguars rank 31st in YAC allowed.

Jordan Love vs. One-Pick Jaguars

If there’s one problem for the Packers, it’s Love’s big mistakes. Love missed two games with a knee injury but threw a league-worst eight interceptions.

There seems to be an understanding that Love’s aggressive style brings an acceptable level of risk. It still needs to be better. Both interceptions against Houston last week were preventable, and an ill-advised bomb thrown into the end zone during the game-winning snap was fortunately incomplete.

The Jaguars come into play after catching a pass this season.

“Obviously I think interceptions are something I want to clean up and definitely improve on, which is staying clean with the ball,” Love said this week. said Love. “I think the main focus for us is to come out offensively and have 100 percent ball security. That’s definitely a big takeaway.

“There’s always different reasons for interceptions, whether it’s a bad read, a bad ball thrown, things like that. There’s a lot of different ways things happen. For me, it’s definitely something I want to focus on moving forward.”

The Jaguars’ lone interception belongs to safety Andrew Wingard, who could return from injury this week.

It’s little wonder why the Jaguars are ranked 2-5. They allowed a league-high 16 goals and had a league-low one interception. They rank last in opponent passer rating and 28th in yards per attempt. They also rank 26th in pressure percentage, and pressures give defenses the best chance to make an interception.

The aforementioned Campbell had one interception in 11 games last season, but had three picks and 15 pass breakups in 2022. Former Packers receiver Darnell Savage was a six-seed pick in the playoffs last year but hasn’t made a regular-season interception since 2022.

“There’s definitely a lot of good weapons there, as do a lot of good teams in this league,” Savage told reporters this week. he said. “But at the end of the day, there is football. So every play you have to do your job, you have to be ready and you have to think that the ball is going to come to you every play no matter what. “As long as we maintain this mentality and make the necessary moves when they come to us, there is no problem.”

Situational Success

Yards are great, but they’re all empty calories if you can’t move the chains on third down or get into the end zone on first and goal.

The Jaguars were terrible at every aspect of what coaches call situational football.

Jacksonville’s offense is 24th on third down (34.2 percent conversion) and 26th on fourth down (46.7 percent). Meanwhile, his defense is 26th on third down (45.1 percent) and 29th on fourth down (70.0 percent).

Settling for field goals is a surefire way to lose games. The Jaguars are 24th in the red zone (50.0 percent goals) and 27th in touchdowns scored (60.0 percent). Giving up goals is also a surefire way to lose games. Defensively, the Jaguars rank last in the red zone (78.3% TDs) and goals on goal (100.0% TDs).

The Packers are mediocre in all of these categories. Offensively, they rank 12th on third downs, 17th on fourth downs, 18th in the red zone, and 19th in goals on goal. Defensively, they rank 15th on third downs, 10th on fourth downs, 19th in the red zone, and 25th in goals on goal.

But they were better in the red zone during their three-game winning streak (tied for ninth on offense, eighth on defense).

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