If Trump Loses the Election, Jack Smith, Hostile Judges, and Prison Appear Amid Grim Legal Expectations

For President Trump, next week’s election could be a diverging moment; one goes to the White House and the other probably goes to the big house.

While the 45th president’s contest with Vice President Harris looks set to come to a photographic end, criminal cases against Trump are moving towards trial. November and December are full of case deadlines. But the most important one is January 20.

That’s when Trump can either raise his hand to take the oath of office and assume the protection of the presidency (the Justice Department prohibits prosecuting sitting presidents) or stew at Mar-a-Lago as he contemplates a long trial schedule that won’t result in acquittal. . If he loses, he will also lose the authority to fire Special Prosecutor Jack Smith and dismiss the Jan. 6 and Mar-a-Lago cases.

Regardless of whether Trump wins on Tuesday, Judge Juan Merchan in New York on November 26 will announce Trump’s sentence in the hush money case involving attorney Michael Cohen and adult film star Stephanie Clifford, also known as Stormy Daniels.

Judge Merchan will decide on November 12 whether this historic immunity decision of the Supreme Court is valid. Trump / United States It could protect Trump from District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s 34 state convictions against the former president. Mr Bragg claims Nine’s verdict has “nothing to say” about the “guilty” decisions it has made. Judge Merchan’s previous decisions were overwhelmingly in favor of the state.

State crimes are outside the scope of the Justice Department and the president’s pardon power, which covers only “crimes against the United States.” This means that if Trump is sentenced to prison, the verdict would stand even if Trump wins the White House. He would likely appeal such a sentence to New York’s first appellate court, the First Circuit Appellate Division. He will not report to prison until the appeal process is over. Governor Hochul suggested that amnesty was off the table.

If Trump wins and is sentenced to prison, the Supreme Court could intervene and suspend the sentence for the rest of his presidency. While the Supreme Court generally leaves state laws to state courts, the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause commands: “The Laws of the United States… shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby.”

judges inside Embers He took particular interest in the presidential prerogative, quoting Alexander Hamilton’s proposition: “The Framers designed the Presidency to provide a ‘strong’ and ‘energetic’ Executive.” The majority opinion cautions against anything that would make the president “unduly cautious in the discharge of his official duties.” Reporting to prison appears to preclude the exercise of the presidential office.

If Trump loses, he will lack the tools to crush Mr. Smith’s cases. While both the classified documents case and the election interference case have been met with delays, the special counsel has a path forward on both — but only if the 45th president cannot become the 47th. The road to trial is tougher in the Mar-a-Lago case, where charges were dismissed by Judge Aileen Cannon. It found that Attorney General Garland’s appointment of Mr. Smith was unlawful and ultra powers.

Mr. Smith responded to this decision based on the perception of bias that could confirm or overturn Judge Cannon’s astonishing decision and even the management of the documents matter. Many legal observers view this as the strongest of the four cases against Trump, and that the charges stemming from the Espionage Act and obstruction laws carry the possibility of decades behind bars.

Although Mr. Smith’s Jan. 6 lawsuit against Trump was overturned by the Supreme Court’s ruling that official presidential acts are presumptively immune and some have “absolute” immunity, Justice Tanya Chutkan’s rulings had previously upheld He found new momentum in the courtroom. Completely contrary to Trump and the January 6 protesters. It allowed the special counsel to submit a book-length immunity brief arguing that Trump “should be tried for his private crimes like other citizens.”

One of the charges brought by the special counsel for obstruction of official action carries a particularly harsh penalty: 20 years. In the case filed in the Supreme Court last term Fischer v. United Statesnarrowed the applicability of the statute. A divided court of law origin This change to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which was intended to combat financial fraud, meant that the law could not be broadly applied to the events of January 6. Mr. Smith argues that the alignment between law and action in Trump’s case is constitutionally appropriate.

Judge Chutkan is expected to rule in Mr. Smith’s favor, but as with all of Trump’s legal actions, whether criminal or civil, since he became president, the matter will almost certainly end up being decided on appeal by top judges, including Supreme Court justices. So far they have shown to be more open-minded about Trump’s arguments.

Any decision Judge Chutkan makes regarding immunity will be ripe for review by the United States Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia and possibly the Supreme Court. But if Trump is eventually convicted and sentenced to prison, he could be taken into custody immediately, even while he files an appeal. But in the state penal system, defendants are generally allowed to remain free until the final appeals court rules.

Trump also faces state charges in Georgia in the form of a wide-ranging racketeering case filed by Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis. On Dec. 8, in the midst of Election and Inauguration Days, the Georgia Court of Appeals will hear Trump’s request to remove Ms. Willis from the case because of her secret relationship with Nathan Wade, a onetime special prosecutor. The two deny that they were in love before the accusations.

Even if Ms. Willis is not dismissed, the case, which initially indicted 19 defendants, could take months or years to unfold. Trump’s lawyers have asked for a delay until 2029, which is beyond the horizon of another presidential term. The former president may also try to avoid the Fulton County Jail by arguing that the Supreme Court’s grant of immunity prevented Ms. Willis from being prosecuted.