Who does South Asia want in the White House?

– Afghanistan and the Taliban ‘may be a little more inclined to want to see Trump return,’ according to South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman

“India would have reason to worry and be reassured if Trump or Harris became president, so they could basically live with that,” Kugelman says

Pakistan may feel ties with US ‘could drastically change if Trump returns’, analyst says

– Kugelman says Bangladesh’s interim government will hope for Harris victory

ISTANBUL

Like everywhere else in the world, countries in South Asia are closely following the US presidential race, looking out for their own interests and preparing to fine-tune their policies depending on who emerges victorious from Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on November 5.

Analysts say major regional countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan are divided on who will be the next US president, but all are willing to engage with the winner.

On the other hand, according to Michael Kugelman, an expert on Washington’s relations with South Asian countries, U.S. policies will likely be in the “go ahead” zone and neither administration will apply “a very sharp strategic lens to South Asia.”

“But relatively speaking, I think Harris will have a sharper point of view than Trump,” he said.

“The United States will explore infrastructure investment opportunities in South Asia, will certainly work with India against China, will seek to increase cooperation at various levels on security levels, particularly through maritime cooperation,” said Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute. He told Anatolia.

Afghanistan turns towards Trump

According to Kugelman, Afghanistan and the Taliban want a US president who will not give them “hard times.”

He said the agreement to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan was negotiated during Trump’s previous term and that Harris was part of the administration that supported and implemented that decision.

He believes the Taliban government may be more amenable to the Trump administration.

“On Afghanistan, I think the Taliban will be fine no matter who wins, but they might be a little more inclined to want to see Trump come back. “But in the end, we can live with whoever wins the election,” he said.

He explained that Trump, as president, would be less likely to focus on women’s education and human rights in Afghanistan.

“The key question for the Taliban is which president would want to explore the possibility of increasing aid to Afghanistan, particularly for development, with Trump more likely to explore financing opportunities,” he said.

But he warned that Trump would also not want to start violating US sanctions and helping the Afghan government.

Who would India want in the White House?

India, South Asia’s largest economy and a key ally of the United States, enjoys a level of comfort when it comes to these elections because there is strong bipartisan support in Washington for closer ties with New Delhi, according to Kugelman.

He added that working with India against China is a strategic imperative.

Kugelman believes the US-India relationship could change if Trump wins, pointing to some of the key issues that have emerged with cooperation in the last few years, such as technology, clean energy and climate change.

He said Trump’s tough stance on export controls could make technology transfers very difficult.

“Technology transfers have become a big part of the US-India relationship. There is much more focus on these than before. So, if Trump comes back and continues this hard line on export controls, I think that could lead to some major challenges in US-India tech cooperation,” the analyst said.

According to Kugelman, another issue is trade; While Trump supports trade ties, he has long been unhappy with India’s tariff policies.

“Trump said relatively little about India during the campaign, but what he did say focused on India’s tariff policies. “He has called India exploitative and is talking about tariff policies and this is very worrying for India,” he said.

“The Indian government will be concerned about Trump’s return because there is a possibility that this could lead to significant changes in the nature of the relationship, which could bring some tensions to the relationship.”

At the same time, Kugelman believes New Delhi would prefer to see Trump return for foreign policy reasons, especially regarding Russia.

“Because of Russia’s close relationship with India, Russia has become something of a constraint on US-India relations. “Trump has taken a more measured position against Russia and the war in Ukraine,” he said.

He said that if Harris wins the presidency, India will continue to feel pressure from the US regarding this partnership with Russia.

“If Trump or Harris becomes president, India will have reason to be both concerned and confident, so they can basically live with it,” he added.

As tensions increase between Canada and India over the murder of a dissident Sikh activist on Canadian soil, Kugelman said that both Harris and Trump could put pressure on New Delhi on this issue.

“They wouldn’t let this go. They would pressure India to investigate. If Harris were to arrive, she would continue US efforts to balance its alliance with Canada with its strategic partnership with India and seek to support Canada’s efforts to press for an investigation. “We are being very careful about how we conduct our relationship with India,” Kugelman said.

“If Trump were to return as president, he has traditionally expressed greater skepticism about the idea of ​​an alliance and may not feel compelled to provide that level of solidarity on Canada’s own claims.”

Pakistan-US relations could drastically change if Trump wins

According to Kugelman, Pakistan is not currently a major policy priority for the United States.

“I think the government in Pakistan may think, and rightly so, that the current dimensions of the relationship could change dramatically if Trump returns,” he said.

However, he said that if Trump returns, issues such as climate change and clean energy cooperation, which have become a big part of relations with Pakistan, will not be prioritized.

“If Harris wins the election, I predict the status quo will continue. There will be continuity of policy, which is basically to maintain a limited relationship with Pakistan, but still retains the possibility of major economic support,” he said.

He added that there could also be “assistance and cooperation around some of these big global multilateral challenges like climate change.”

Kugelman said the Trump administration would probably not deal with these issues, which would be a cause for concern for Pakistan.

Regarding public sentiment in Pakistan, he said supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan believe that Trump would be a better option and could build pressure for his release.

US-Bangladesh ‘relationship reshaped’

According to Kugelman, the interim government in Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, was hoping for Harris’ victory.

“Dhaka is aware that relations with the United States have changed greatly since the major political changes in Bangladesh,” he said, referring to the dismissal in August of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who ruled the country for more than 15 years.

“It recognizes that the relationship is being reshaped so that development aid and support for reforms become a big part of the relationship.”

Kugelman said he knew that according to Trump, Bangladesh would likely have no interest in shaping any relationship to provide development assistance or support for reforms.

“Dhaka will probably be afraid that if Trump comes back, he will want to downsize the relationship and maybe make it more about strategic issues, maybe more about trade issues,” he continued.

Another challenge facing Bangladesh, he added, is that this new government is “much more inclined to strengthen relations with China than the previous government.”

“Sheikh Hasina has certainly strengthened ties with China, but I think this government wants to strengthen relations with both the United States and China, which makes sense from a strategic autonomy standpoint,” Kugelman said.

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