Air Force vs. Army Predictions, Picks and Best Bets – College Football Week 10

It’s a long-standing tradition to prevail in Service Academy meets, but this isn’t your grandmother’s Service Academy meet, as there’s an added wrinkle between the Air Force Falcons and the Army Knights.

Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen Actually For once there are competent offenses, but the Falcons do not. So we’re getting an unusually high total today.

My picks between Air Force and Army guard against a blowout in the second half and highlight my best performance college football picks For today’s Service Academy matchup, it is scheduled for noon ET at Michie Stadium in West Point and will air on CBS.

Air Force vs Army prediction and best bet

my best bet
First half total under 21.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Selections made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

my analysis

For the uninitiated. The underdog is 44-10-1 (81.5%) in the last 55 games played between Service Academy programs.

What has made the Service Academy Under trend so successful over the years is that, in its simplest form, all three teams run the triple option and run the ball about 80% of the time, which constantly milks the clock. At the same time, these programs know how to best defend these plays, resulting in a lot of short runs.

Moreover, sports betting sites could not set totals low enough for these matchups to get a balanced amount of action on both sides.

Now, a key variable has been added to the mix in 2024, and that is the explosive nature of Army and Navy’s pass rushing offenses. While both of these programs still run the ball more than anyone else in the country, they throw the ball down the field. The Army ranks first in the nation in EPA/return rankings, while the Navy ranks eighth.

We saw this on Oct. 5 when we posted a closing total over 37.5 in Navy’s 34-7 win over Air Force.

The other variable is the Air Force’s EPA margin of 125. ranked first and looking like one of the worst teams in the country. The combination of these variables means we’re seeing the highest total in the Service Academy matchup since 2020.

The total for this weekend’s game between Air Force and Army stands at 41.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

Army now has a chance to take over this game on its own, but I still believe the style of this matchup indicates we will see another Under.

Although the Air Force gave up 34 points to Navy in the October 5 meeting, two of those scores for Navy came on unexpected explosive plays. A comeback on fourth down where the Falcons defender needed to contain it. Instead, it was a goal. Then another touchdown was scored on an incredible sideline catch, and the game still needed a TD midway through the fourth quarter to move to the Over.

On top of that, Air Force likely won’t be able to score much, considering the Falcons are going against an Army defense that ranks 127th in EPA/play and 122nd in offensive success rate and has limited opponents to 14 points or fewer in six of seven games.

However, Army’s offense scares me a bit here because Bryson Daily and Co. It was amazing. So I’m going to change it up a bit and take the first half from the bottom.

Air Force will be able to compete for a while longer, but the longer the game goes on, the better chance Army’s offense has to attack and potentially close this game out.

(Give us 50 total for Army-Navy!)

Air Force and Army same game match (SGP)

First half total under 21.5

Casey Reynolds always a TD

Air Force team total under 9.5

It’s been so great every day this season that BetMGM isn’t giving us a touchdown option for the Black Knights’ quarterback at any time in this Service Academy matchup. They don’t actually give us scoring potions for Daily or super assist potions for top rusher Kanye Udoh or Noah Short.

Instead, I’ll look at the Dark Knights’ top threat receiver, Casey Reynolds. The 6-foot-2 burner is the definition of a deep threat, averaging 29.3 yards per reception. He has thrown three touchdown passes this season and looks like the best bet to find the end zone in this matchup.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have a young offensive line that doesn’t work well when the triple option is run, and it shows. Air Force is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry this season, which ranks 100th in the country. As a result, the Falcons have reached 20 points against FBS opponents just once this season and have been held to seven points or fewer three times. Add to this SGP the Air Force Under 9.5 total.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Air Force and Army rates

Air Force vs Army live betting odds

Air Force and Army opening rates

• Difference between Air Force and Army: Army -23.5
• Air Force and Army money line: Air Force +1,600, Army -5,000
• Air Force and Army Upper/Under: 40

Rates courtesy BetMGM

Difference between Air Force and Army and Over/Under analysis

• Army opened as a 23.5-point favorite, but Air Force took action early as the lead narrowed to 22.5.
• The general rule in sports betting is that you take the underdog whose total is this low, and we can see that here. The loser closed the gap eight times in a row in this match; The biggest difference was Army’s 18 points last season.
• The total reached 40 and Over was the first to see money, with some Under money pushing the figure up to 42 before bringing it back down to 41.5.
• The last time we saw the total over 40 in this matchup was in 2020, when it closed at 47.5.

Knowing the Air Force and Army betting trend

In the last 10 matches played between Air Force and Army, the Under is 10-0. find more college football betting trends For the Air Force and Army.

Information about the Air Force and Army game

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Air Force and Army weather

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