Packers vs. Lions: Three Reasons to Believe

GREEN BAY, Wisconsin – Green Bay Packers 2.5 point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s NFC North matchup against the Detroit Lions.

How rare is this? This will be the 50th home game coached by Matt LaFleur. He has been an underdog seven times, including last year’s 34-20 defeat against the Lions.

There are three reasons why the Packers beat the Lions this time.

1.Josh Jacobs

There’s a reason Jacobs doesn’t get a lot of touches in some games. So that he can do his best in games like this.

Whether it’s Jordan Love or point guard Malik Willis, the offensive numbers start with Jacobs. Jacobs led the way in a Week 2 win against the Colts when Willis started, and last week in Jacksonville, where Willis played most of the second half.

Detroit’s run defense is its only weakness. Underdog may be a strong word, but the Lions rank 22nd and 19th in yards allowed per carry this season, with 4.66. expected points set according to schedule. They have gained more than 130 rushing yards in three of the last four games.

This week’s priority was to fix this problem.

“Yes, it’s something we’re taking into consideration,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters before Wednesday’s practice. “We have to be able to attack the perimeter, set the boundaries and let our supporters flow and play. (In Thursday’s training) we will reinforce, we will bring it and that is the best way.

“Do you want to get better at this, do you want to work on it? Just like a game situation you should work on it full speed and get some live replays. “We’re going to keep doing that because we know teams are going to keep attacking us like that.”

Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing and touches and ranks fourth in rushing yards. Jacobs ranks eighth among 44 running backs with at least 50 carries with 3.52 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 10th in missed tackle percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

According to PFF, Detroit’s defense ranks 27th in missed tackle percentage.

“It’s very physical. “They fly as a unit,” Jacobs said. “They have a lot of players who play very high level ball. It will be one of those games. It will be a play-off style game. We will see. We will see how it goes.”

According to PFF, Jacobs recorded 31 steals this season compared to 28 last year. His yards after contact are the best mark of his career.

It’s not just Jacobs. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had to deal with the Packers’ rushing attack led by Aaron Jones. Glenn said Jacobs brings a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense.

“There’s a point in getting a back on the wall that’s bullshit and changing the mindset,” Glenn told reporters Thursday. “To see what he’s like in the NFL and what a fierce, physical runner he is, you know the offensive line can’t wait to block that guy. “There’s an increase in the physical nature of the game and how they go about violence because of who they’re running the ball on.

“So it’s going to be a challenge for us and we’ve got to do everything we can to stop it because if you allow that to happen, it’s not good defensively to let a team run the ball and then let the ball drop and play-action transitions that they have with these receivers that they have.” Therefore, we need to work well in this sense.”

2. Jayden Reed

One of those receivers is Jayden Reed, who has emerged as the Packers’ top threat. “This guy is a playmaking guy,” Campbell said. Reed leads the teams with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4 yard average.

According to PFF, 65 receivers were targeted at least 30 times. Reed ranks second with 8.5 yards per catch and ranks 15th with six missed tackles. His 15 explosive plays (running and catching) are just three behind Derrick Henry’s league-leading total.

What’s notable about this play is that Reed did most of his damage in the slot; here he ranks eighth with 21 receptions, second with 381 yards, second with 18.1 yards per catch, fourth with three touchdowns, sixth with 8.2 YAC per catch, and sixth. He is second with a 142.0 passer rating when targeted.

The Lions are vulnerable in the slot with Amik Robertson. According to PFF, he allowed the fifth-most yards, the third-most yards per snap and a 101.1 passer rating among 28 linebackers who would play at least 100 slot coverage snaps.

Fantasy football is not real football, but the Lions have allowed the most fantasy football points to slot receivers. According to Razzball.

In the second round of the 2023 draft, the Lions made a deal with the Packers to secure safety Brian Branch. The Packers traded up once again before selecting Reed.

“I think the vision was what you see now with the way he plays,” Campbell said. “Here’s what you know; He was competitive, explosive and had speed. … Can find his place, sticky-handed, touchy, obstructive, competitive. Dude is going to get after it in the run game. And he’s a very smart, very smart player. “He’s coming around and continuing to get better, and in my opinion, he’s a force and we’re going to have to be ready for him like the other receivers.”

3. Implications

The Packers are 6-2 thanks in large part to Jeff Hafley’s defense, No. 1 with 19 tackles, No. 1 with nine fumbles recovered and No. 2 with 10 interceptions.

Detroit, on the other hand, ranks 2nd in turnover margin at plus-10. Only three teams have less chance at a giveaway than Detroit’s five teams. The Lions had just one turnover and Jared Goff had no interceptions since Week 3.

The Packers are holding an event they call a “ball rally” to highlight the importance of taking care of the football. Leos make a similar emphasis. So much so that a Titans staff member tried to learn the secrets of success from Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after Detroit won the turnover battle 4-0 last week.

“As coaches, we’re constantly on top of that,” Johnson told reporters on Thursday. “It gets old, it becomes redundant, but I think at some point these guys hear it in the back of their minds when they’re carrying the ball down the field.

“We’ve got a quarterback right now who’s very smart and plays solid football. He takes care of the ball. If he presents it down the field, he’ll throw it; he’s got no problem smashing a dagger or throwing a post up the field. But when the teams we see all the time have this much depth, he’s going to control it.” . So he’s being very smart and deliberate in attacking the coverage right now, so that means keeping the ball out of harm’s way in terms of tackles.”

Goff is playing at the highest level imaginable but has been sacked eight times and fumbled four times in the last two games. So, there may be opportunities for the Edgerrin Cooper type of sack/strip that was instrumental in last week’s win at Jacksonville.

“I think it starts up front, like every game,” Hafley said. “If you can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a long day. Their offensive line is probably the best we’ve ever seen, and they also have two really good running backs. So we really need to defend the run. They’re explosive, they’re strong, and their offensive line is really good.

“They built this the right way. They’ve built this from the inside out, but it has to start with the run. Obviously, they have a good wide receiver, they have a really good tight end, and the quarterback is as effective as any quarterback in the NFL right now. I think they are really good coaches. “I think their entire roster is doing a great job with their schemes, and what they’ve done this year with their quarterback efficiency has been very impressive.”

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Lukas Van Ness #Packers‘ Greetings to the service candidate. We discussed yesterday.https://t.co/RBqHqrEotc

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 2, 2024

1.Josh Jacobs

2. Jayden Reed

3. Implications

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