Ten reasons why Trump or Harris will win

With just one day left, the race for the White House is deadlocked both nationally and in crucial battleground states.

The polls are so close that, within the margin of error, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris might actually be two or three points better; That’s enough to win comfortably.

There is a compelling case for why each might have an advantage when it comes to building a coalition of voters in the right places and then making sure they actually show up.

Let’s start with the possibility of making history in which a defeated president could be re-elected for the first time in 130 years.

Trump can win because…

1. Not in power

The economy is the number one issue for voters; While unemployment is low and the stock market is on the rise, most Americans say they are struggling with rising prices every day.

After the epidemic, inflation reached levels not seen since the 1970s, prompting Trump to ask, “Are you in a better situation now than you were four years ago?” It gave me the opportunity to ask the question.

In 2024, voters around the world have ousted the ruling party several times, partly due to the high cost of living post-Covid. US voters also seem hungry for change.

Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is heading, while two-thirds say the economic outlook is poor.

Harris has tried to be the so-called change candidate, but has struggled to distance herself from the unpopular Joe Biden as vice president.

2. He seems impervious to bad news

Despite the fallout from the riot at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, a series of indictments, and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump’s support has remained steady at 40% or above for the entire year.

Democrats and “never Trump” conservatives say he is unfit for office, while most Republicans agree that Trump is the victim of a political witch hunt.

With both sides so embedded, they need to win enough support from a small slice of undecided voters who don’t have a fixed view of themselves.

3. His warnings about illegal immigration resonate

Beyond the state of the economy, elections are often determined by an emotional issue.

Democrats hope it’s abortion, while Trump claims it’s immigration.

After border encounters reached record levels under Biden and the influx affected states far from the border, polls show that voters have more trust in Trump on immigration and that he is doing much better on Latinos than in previous elections.

4. Many people don’t have degrees

Trump’s appeal to voters who felt forgotten and left behind transformed US politics, converting traditional Democratic voters such as union workers into Republicans and making protection of American industry through tariffs almost the norm.

If it increases turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states, that could offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans.

5. He is seen as a strong man in an unstable world

Critics of Trump say he is undermining America’s alliances by cozying up to authoritarian leaders.

But the former president sees his unpredictability as a strength, noting that no major wars started while he was in the White House.

For different reasons, many Americans are angry that the United States has sent billions of dollars to Ukraine and Israel and think America is weaker under the Biden administration.

The majority of voters, especially the men Trump courts through podcasts like Joe Rogan’s I see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.

Harris can win because…

1. He’s not Trump

Despite Trump’s advantages, he remains a deeply polarizing figure.

He won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate in 2020, but was defeated as seven million more Americans supported Biden.

This time, Harris is playing up the fear factor regarding Trump’s comeback. He promised to give up “drama and conflict” while calling her “fascist” and a threat to democracy.

A. Reuters/Ipsos poll In July, four in five Americans said they felt the country was out of control. Harris hopes voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, see her as the candidate of stability.

2. He’s not Biden either

At the point when Biden dropped out of the race, Democrats were facing almost certain defeat. The party, united in its desire to defeat Trump, quickly rallied around Harris. With impressive speed from the start, he delivered a more forward-looking message that excited the base.

Harris rendered some Biden-specific attack lines redundant as Republicans pinned her on Biden’s more unpopular policies.

The most obvious is that age polls consistently show that voters have real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the race has turned and it is Trump who is vying to become the oldest person to win the White House.

3. She advocates for women’s rights

This is the first presidential election since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to abortion.

Voters are concerned about protecting abortion rights and overwhelmingly support Harris, and we have seen in past elections, especially the 2022 midterm elections, that this issue can increase turnout and have a real impact on the results.

This time, 10 states, including Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could increase turnout in Harris’ favor.

The historic nature of her bid to become the first female president could also strengthen her significant lead among female voters.

4. Their voters are more likely to turn out

Groups where Harris polls more strongly, such as college-educated and older people, are more likely to vote.

Democrats ultimately performed better in high turnout groups, while Trump made gains in relatively low turnout groups, such as young men and those without college degrees.

For example, Trump has a large lead among those who are registered but did not vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

So the real question is whether they will show up this time.

5. He raised and spent more money

It’s no secret that American elections are expensive, and 2024 is on track to be the most expensive election ever.

But when it comes to exertion, Harris is at the top. According to a recent analysis by the Financial Times, Trump has raised more money since becoming a candidate in July than he has in the entire period since January 2023; The analysis also noted that his campaign spent nearly twice as much on advertising.

That could play a role in a very tight race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently bombarded with political ads.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the White House race in his twice-weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. UK readers sign up here. Those outside the UK can: sign up here.