US Presidential Election: 4 reasons why Kamala Harris lost at the polls

• Presidential elections in the United States (US) will end on Tuesday, November 5
• Presidential historian Allan Lichtman listed four factors that will determine Kamala Harris’ fate
• Described as America’s polling “Nostradamus,” Lichtman has successfully predicted all but one presidential election outcome since 1984.

Legit.ng journalist Adekunle Dada has over 5 years of experience covering metro, government policy and international events

United States – Voters in the United States (USA) will decide the fate of Kamara Harris from the Democrats and Donald Trump The choice of the Republicans in the presidential elections to be held on Tuesday, November 5.

Vice President Harris and former president, EmbersThey traveled the country for several months campaigning and seeking votes.

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Accordingly news weekPresidential historian Allan Lichtman said the election will come down to four keys.

Described as America’s polling “Nostradamus,” Lichtman has successfully predicted the results of all but one presidential election since 1984.

Lichtman, in a 2012 article for Social Education He published 13 true/false statements called “keys”. Their predictions are based on this model.

“It is predicted that if six or more of these statements are false, the ruling party will lose the election. If five or fewer are wrong, that side is expected to win.”

The first of the key factors that will determine the winner is the third-party key; that is, the incumbent’s desire for reelection. The incumbent party’s candidate is the incumbent president.

It is also vital for the two main candidates to emerge with a significant alternative that can attract votes from their bases.

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For that switch to turn false, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would have to have the consistent support of about 10 percent of voters, Lichtman said.

According to Lichtman, the second key to determining Harris’ fate is social unrest within the family.

The third key is foreign/military failure. although he defended it AmericaIt is possible that he decided that the key to foreign military failure was false because of his involvement in conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.

The fourth key is the foreign/military success of the incumbent administration.

Lichtman also warned that the “short-term economics” key was now “shaky” as a result of the “very weak” performance in early August. works reports” and the stock market skidded as a result.

But Lichtman said the switch hasn’t yet turned against Democrats.

He urged American voters to ignore polls and pundits.

“Don’t follow the media herd, look at how the American presidential election actually works according to the keys to the White House.”

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Lichtman’s 13 keys from 2012

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party held more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than in previous midterm elections.
2. No primaries: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party’s nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party’s candidate is the incumbent president.
4. No third parties: There are no significant third parties or independent campaigns.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real economic growth per capita over the period equals or exceeds the average growth over the previous two periods.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There was no sustained social unrest during the period.
9. No scandals: The incumbent administration has not been affected by major scandals.
10. No foreign or military failures: The incumbent administration suffers no major failures in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration has achieved major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Non-charismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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legit.ng previously reported less than two weeks later US elections 2024Siena College’s latest national poll showed Trump and Harris neck and neck.

The rival presidential candidates are now deadlocked at 48% to 48% in the popular vote, according to a Siena/New York Times poll released Friday, October 25.

All eyes seem to be fixated on her WE Presidential race as Trump tries to eke out a victory against Harris.

Edited by Kola Muhammed, journalist and copy editor at Legit.ng.

Source: Legit.ng