Election Poll Surprise Partially Driven by 65+ Female Voters

Poll after poll shows the presidential race is neck-and-neck; even our Kiplinger Letter team called it a “”a historically close race.” Close to 50-50 results, poll after poll, state by state some analysts Wondering out loud whether the “herding” method, in which pollsters essentially skew the results so that their polls don’t show a wildly different result from everyone else, is effective. Basically: If everyone says the race is 50-50, you don’t want to be the one saying it’s 55-45.

Unless you’re J. Ann Selzer. “Selzer survey” (technically “Des Moines Record / Mediacom Iowa Poll”), published this weekend, has Vice President Kamala Harris polling 47% ahead of former President Donald Trump (44% among likely voters), a major shakeup from what other polls say and the previous Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll. showed. It showed Trump ahead.