Compelling Reasons It Could Really Go Either Way

In my US FOCUS GROUPS last month, we heard from key voters in seven swing states. I would like to point out that our conversations Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania And Georgia and North Carolina points to a clear winner, but they don’t. What they did helped reveal the forces at work.

Even though we’re no closer to knowing the outcome of today’s election, we do know better what led to it.

This is why Trump can win. After years of inflation, many say his presidency looks better in retrospect than it felt at the time. People look back at a time when Russia and Iran were contained and the southern border was reasonably secure, there was relative prosperity (thriving businesses and affordable food), and a strong American presence in the world. The polite political culture that many voted for in 2020 did not materialize. The Biden administration’s liberal approach to cultural issues has drawn the ire of many.

The lawsuits against Trump and what some felt like the increasingly nagging and self-righteous tone of his opponents (not to mention President Biden’s description of his supporters as “trash”) have strengthened rather than weakened Trump’s position. Democrats have betrayed confidence by insisting that Biden is fully qualified for a second term until he replaces Kamala Harris.

Other Matters of Interest

‘Europe Cannot Bear the Burden of War Alone’ – Ukraine in November 4 War Update

Harris and Trump make final appeal to American voters, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban intervenes; Russia’s offensive in the East continues amid drone strikes across the country; and pro-EU Maia Sandu re-elected in Moldova

The anxiety that many felt about a new candidate being imposed on them without being told was exacerbated by his refusal or failure to be clearer about his policies and values. Voters were wondering who would call the shots in Harris’ White House. His public performances and interviews did not always inspire confidence, and people noted his insistence on talking about his opponent when asked about his own plans.

Trump’s speech as a “fascist” appeared to contradict his clear desire to end hatred and division. Some minority voters have shifted, influenced by Trump’s record and personality, and repulsed by what many see as adulation by Harris and a broader tendency by Democrats to underestimate them.

Here’s why Harris was able to win. As in their successful 2022 midterm campaign, Democrats have focused relentlessly on reproductive rights, which are at or near the top of many female voters’ priority lists. His campaign’s ubiquitous slogan — “we won’t go back” — is a powerful call for many Americans to resist the chaotic circus of the Trump presidency and, for minorities especially, a return to a bygone era they remember as everything in America. but “great”.

If Harris has not clearly defined herself, this allows a broad swath of voters to project their hopes on her without any risk of disappointment until she is safely in office: those dissatisfied with the current administration can foresee something different, and those who like the status quo can reassure themselves that they are part of it. For many, the fact that he is not Donald Trump is more than enough reason to vote for him and inspires much more excitement and optimism than Biden.

His opponent’s campaign is haphazard and unfocused; It consistently directs attention to Trump himself rather than to the issues that Americans prioritize and where he performs best. There is a palpable sense that Trump lacks the fire and drive that enthused his voters in 2016. Despite occasional highlights, such as highlighting her support for government-funded gender reassignment surgery for prisoners, Republicans have failed to portray Harris as a dangerous radical.

Despite holding a razor-thin lead in several state polls, some analysis suggests Trump’s numbers are based on low-propensity voters who are less likely to turn out. They may yet, but when it comes to getting votes, Harris’ financial advantage could really show.

Once we know the outcome, one of the paragraphs above – or some version of it – will quickly become accepted wisdom, and all sorts of surprising people will tell you that they thought things went that way all along. But the truth is that both are true and both are happening at the same time. However, as of today, we do not know which of these combinations of forces will prevail.

Moreover, the result does not necessarily have to be very close. A candidate can win most, or even all, swing states by narrow margins and score a significant victory without polls — which all operate with a margin of error — even if he is wrong.

These factors will also form part of the reason why a party may feel challenged when they lose. With all of this in their favor, some will believe their victory was stolen by the outdated electoral college/deplorable voters/questionable events/outright fraud (delete as appropriate).

I think what they can’t blame is disinformation. Trump’s creative versions of history are well documented, and it is true that they are frequently taken up by his followers. But for every Republican who believes the 2020 election was stolen, we find a reasonable-sounding Democrat who tells us the Butler assassination attempt was staged to boost Trump’s appeal — dead shooter, slain fire chief and all. Don’t let anyone tell you that the lie detector only works one way.

We found that people tended to trust the voting and counting process, at least temporarily. Still, many fear unrest no matter who emerges victorious. Harris supporters say they expect to be on steroids on Jan. 6 if Trump is defeated. Others point out that the left is also in fine form on this issue, as residents of Portland and Seattle, among other places, can attest.

Whatever happens after Election Day, it seems more likely to deepen divisions rather than heal them in the short term, and the same could be true of the new president’s actions: If Trump is truly using the power of the state to take revenge on his rivals, or if he’s claiming he’s afraid of Harris’ largely anti-Trump sentiment. The establishment refused to declare if it took a narrow victory as a mandate to implement a radical agenda.

But despite the pearl-fishing epidemic (especially by those who want to belittle the United States despite its success over the last fifteen years on this side of the Atlantic), a victory by one side or the other will not be the end of civilization. or so compared to Europe and the UK). But no matter what, divisions will remain, and no matter how Trump or Harris continues to do the job.

This is because whoever wins the election will not ultimately win the debate. The competing worldviews in the game will endure no matter who opposes them. There are real, principled, and practical disagreements on everything from economics, trade, tariffs, and energy independence to transgender rights, immigration, identity politics, reproductive rights, and America’s role in the world.

Whether Trump or Harris leaves the political scene tomorrow, in four years, or in a decade, these debates will continue to rage. So they should. Anything else would be un-American.

The article is reprinted from: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/ With permission of the author. You can find the original Here.