Kamala Harris Suddenly Becomes the Favorite to Win

Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight suddenly appointed VP Kamala Harris His favorite is to win the White House on Election Day for the first time since October 17.

The race has been neck and neck for a long time There are very subtle differences in any given vote that benefit both candidates.

There was the former president of FiveThirtyEight Donald Trump Until Monday, he had been considered the favorite to win for nearly two weeks; until they found that out of 100 simulations, Trump won 53 times and Harris won 47 times.

But in an update on Election Day, Harris emerged as the favorite, winning 50 out of 100 compared to Trump’s 49 out of 100.

The last time FiveThirtyEight picked the vice president as the favorite was Oct. 17, when Harris was determined to have won 52 times out of 100, while Trump had won 48 times, according to the poll, which uses economic and demographic data. out of 100.

The poll aggregator said the odds of not winning the Electoral College are less than one in 100.

Similarly, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silverno longer affiliated with the site, technically he was naming it for Harris. In the last election prediction With FiveThirtyEight’s “direct descendant” Silver Bulletin picking Harris as the favorite to win by a razor-thin margin.

According to Silver’s model, out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won 50.015 percent of the cases, while Trump won 49.65 percent of the cases. Approximately 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

“I’m not exaggerating when I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are as close to 50/50 as you can get,” Silver warned in his Election Day newsletter.

“This is not because my default preference is to hedge or add some extra uncertainty parameters to the model for no reason. This is my fifth presidential election — and my ninth overall election, including the midterms — and there has never been anything like this.”

news week He contacted the Harris and Trump teams by email outside normal business hours for comment.

The day before the election, Harris was spotted campaigning in Pennsylvania; Its 19 delegate votes make it the top prize among battleground states that will determine the Electoral College winner. Trump holds rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before ending demonstrations launched his campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, MichiganMonday night.

news week summarized what the latest polls and predictions say about both candidates’ chances of winning the White House Here.