US Election Results 2024: 5 reasons why Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have equal chances of winning the presidential race

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are in an “incredibly” close contest in the historic 2024 US presidential race. The race to become the 47th US president is said to be “with a razor-thin margin.” Reports suggest that nearly every poll in the seven swing states shows the race is a toss-up between Harris and Trump.

Latest 2024 election polls or survey data published by Morning Consult and John Zogby Strategies questionnaire showed Harris ahead. Well-known American political scientist Ian Bremmer said: Embers He is seen as the “very narrow favourite”.

“But this is a low opinion view reflecting the closeness of polls and polls over the weekend that show him surprisingly weak in Republican-leaning states,” Bremmer told news agency ANI. he said.

The key to the US election results lies in seven swing states: Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

who will be next US president It’s not clear yet, but here are the key factors that could favor Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in ongoing polls:

US Election Results: Why might Donald Trump win?

According to Morning Consult’s analysis of surveys and ratings:

1. Trump preferred over Harris in swing states immigration policy. Former President Trump proposed mass deportation. Trump has vowed to deport not just “criminals,” a promise he shares with Harris, but also Haitians living legally in Springfield and even those he smears as “pro-Hamas radicals” protesting on college campuses, according to the Associated Press.

2. Donald Trump’s campaign also benefits from this economyThis is the number one issue for voters. Voters in swing states appear to trust Trump more than Harris on the national economy. Despite harsh criticism from Harris, Trump maintained a slim advantage over the economy overall. tariff policies. Across seven battleground states, voters in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey of swing states were consistent in ranking the economy as their top priority.

3. Voters in swing states may also support Trump foreign policy and his ideas for resolving the Middle East conflict.

4. Trump is also a trusted name among voters for his policies on national security, crime and public safety.

5. Trump’s support at the national level young voters appeared stronger Compared to 2020, according to Morning Consult analysis. It was stated that at the state level, Trump made “major gains among young voters.” Therefore, it could benefit from increased support from young and non-white voters.

Previously, an ABC News/Ipsos poll in October had also shown that Trump was believed to have handled issues of immigration, the economy, inflation and the Middle East conflict better than Harris.

US Election Results: Why might Kamala Harris win?

1. The main reason Harris can do this is that she is neither Trump nor Joe Biden, the BBC reported. He added that Harris will hope voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, see her as the candidate of stability. Meanwhile, early polls had suggested voters had real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office, but that’s not the case for Harris.

2. Meanwhile, the vice president is more popular and consistently has more positive results than Trump, according to Morning Consult analysis of polls and polls news coverage. He is said to have received better news from Trump since he became a candidate.

3. Survey conducted Voters also perceive Harris more favorably than Joe Biden and Donald Trump on a number of key attributes — “healthy,” agemental fitness, honesty, reliability, “strong leader” and recklessness.

4. Harris outperformed Biden against Trump on key 2024 issues, including climate, abortion, gun policy, climate change, education, health care and preserving US democracy. (See table below)

5. problem It was “abortion” It will come to the fore even more in the 2024 elections. Voters in nine states will decide whether state constitutions should guarantee abortion rights by considering ballot measures expected to increase turnout in a number of key races. Currently, 13 states impose bans on all stages of pregnancy, with some exceptions.

Vice President Kamala Harris calls these “Trump’s abortion bans.” Harris, meanwhile, has described herself as a direct and consistent advocate for reproductive health and rights, including black maternal health.

Morning Consult Political Intelligence surveyed thousands of registered U.S. voters on how they view their politicians at the national and state level and who they currently plan to vote for.