Demographic groups that carried Trump to the presidency – DW – 11/06/2024

Donald Trump is the new president of the United States, and that’s partly due to his ability to woo voters away from the Democratic Party base.

Not only has he won the 270 electoral college votes needed to claim the presidency, he is also poised to win the popular vote for the first time.

So how did Donald Trump rise to his first popular presidency?

Trump wasn’t content with his ability to just win key ‘Blue Wall’ states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin; Trump was also able to reach key groups nationally.

He continued to challenge the belief that he had exhausted the supply of rural and suburban voters available to him. It increased both suburban and rural votes compared to 2020.

His performance in traditionally left-leaning groups will also concern Democrats.

Young people are turning away from Democrats

The youth vote, often seen as the core vote for left-leaning parties in the western world, was the worst vote for the Democrats in this election; data shows Kamala Harris leads Trump 52-46 in this demographic group.

That six-point advantage compares with Biden’s 25-point buffer over Trump in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s 18-point lead in 2016.

The Democratic advantage was also the smallest in all three Trump elections among the 30-44 voter group; Just four points compared to Biden’s 12 points.

But this wasn’t good news for Republicans, age-wise. Trump had the smallest advantage among retirees; She was ahead of Harris by just two points, compared to her eight-point advantage over Clinton eight years ago.

“What struck me was that the younger demographic didn’t move, didn’t stay as strong with Democrat Harris as it did with Biden,” William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, told DW.

“When (Democrats) switched from Biden to Harris, that should have helped mobilize the younger population; of course, we don’t know yet what the outcome of that group is, but we know how they voted.”

Abortion didn’t turn young women towards Harris either

A pro-choice stance on reproductive health following the Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade decision was seen as an advantage for Harris entering the election, and Democrats kept a close eye on women’s votes.

Harris herself has benefited from major celebrity endorsements: Taylor Swift endorsed the Democrats’ endorsement, directly referencing the party’s stance on reproductive health. So are Beyoncé, Oprah, Jennifer Lopez, Megan Thee Stallion and Cardi B.

The numbers show his advantage with women 18-44 is half what it was for Biden four years ago.

It also fell by one point among women over 45.

By comparison, men ages 18-44 swayed toward Trump after accounting for a small but significant share of Biden’s win in 2020. Biden’s seven-point advantage in that group evaporated on November 5; Trump has a six-point advantage over Harris while also increasing his power. Share of men over 45 years of age.

Trump is building his working class base

When Trump beat Clinton in 2016, one of his hallmarks was his ability to sway “Blue Wall” states to his camp. At the core of this success were “America First” policies that promised to curb overseas imports and revitalize domestic production.

Here and across America, he has held a majority of the non-college graduate vote in three consecutive elections.

While Joe Biden managed to win back some of those voters while increasing the college-educated vote in 2020, both went backwards for Harris this year.

In fact, this was Democrats’ worst performance with this group in Trump’s three elections. Harris carried only 43 percent of those voters, while Trump increased his share to 55 percent. His advantage over the Democratic candidate was twice that of his 2016 victory, while his college vote share remained steady at 41%.

Latino and black men are moving towards Trump

A Kamala Harris presidency would shatter the glass ceiling and also make her the first woman, Black woman, and Asian-American to occupy the White House.

None of this will happen.

And of concern for Democrats will be data showing that the traditional base among people of color continues to sway toward Republicans.

Black and Latino voters did not abandon Democrats, but they voted for Trump in larger numbers this year. Each of these groups makes up about a tenth of the voting population.

In 2020, 90 percent of Black voters voted for Biden; now that figure is closer to 80 percent, driven mostly by losses among men. In some swing states, Trump managed to double his share among black men, albeit from a low base.

A slim majority of Latino men, 51%, voted for Harris, while 46% voted for Trump and 56% overall. Four years ago, 63 percent of Latino voters supported Biden.

As with the youth vote, Frey was surprised to find that these demographic groups were less energized by the Harris campaign.

“That didn’t seem to be the case,” Frey said.

“It depends on what the issues are at the time; the candidate tries to pick issues that would be helpful to those people.”

Edited by: Andreas Ilmer