Russia interfered in elections and may incite violence under Trump

Although there were no credible allegations of fraud contributing to Donald Trump’s victory on Tuesday, and the vote did not even appear close, the election was marred by foreign interference, a regular occurrence in every US election since 2016.

This year there has been a steady stream of disinformation and multiple attempts by Russia to interfere with the election process. Before the election, the Federal Bureau of Investigation identified Russia as a target. “most active” He noted that Moscow was carrying out influence operations to undermine confidence among Americans in the integrity of the elections.

On election day, bomb threats were made to polling stations in the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin, and the FBI said fake threats It originated from Russian email domains. Two polling stations in Georgia had to be temporarily evacuated, and it remains unclear whether this deterred voters. In early September, an indictment against two RT (formerly Russia Today, Kremlin propaganda outlet) employees included details of a plot to funnel. $10 million Funding prominent right-wing commentators in the US who are part of a pro-Trump media platform registered in Tennessee.

The Russians also operated an influential network of “double” websites that impersonated legitimate American news organizations, such as the Washington Post, but published fake news to undermine confidence in elections and increase polarization.

Russia was not the only foreign actor involved, as both China and Iran attempted to conduct “hack and leak” operations during and after the elections.

Trump’s choice to praise Russian dictator Vladimir Putin eliminates the possibility of him bringing up the issue during future speeches or meetings. In the past, Trump has sided with Putin on the U.S. intelligence community and has repeatedly referred to the “Russia hoax” to downplay Russia’s past interference in U.S. elections.

Russian interference in the US political system with such a passive approach of the federal government and American culture It is an inevitable situation. Many are concerned about these and other potential sources of domestic instability, including a rise in far-right violence that could be encouraged by foreign actors or Trump himself.

It’s certainly true that if Vice President Kamala Harris had won by a small margin and Trump called the results “rigged,” we would be in a dangerous situation: A few days ago, this seemed like the most direct line to political violence. post election.

And of course there is counterterrorism analysts Those who worry about a violent response from the far left to another Trump presidency. Some on the far left see Trump’s second term as an existential crisis and will likely be motivated to take to the streets to protest. Trump has threatened to deploy the US military to suppress demonstrators, and if he did so it could lead to a significant increase in left-wing violence. Other issues, including access to abortion, climate change, and the war in Gaza, may also galvanize some on the left to view their causes as legitimizing violent resistance.

But another Byproduct of four more years of Trump It could be a series of events like the one the country experienced during its first term, when racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists, including neo-Nazis and white supremacists, launched attacks on the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. a woman was killed after being hit by a car; Pittsburgh synagogue where violence killed 11 people and injured six more; and a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, where a gunman killed 23 people and injured nearly two dozen others.

The motivation of the attackers in both the Pittsburgh and El Paso incidents was in part:“Great Change” theoryA white supremacist trope that claims that the ongoing “replacement” of the white Christian population in the United States is the deliberate strategy of a nefarious conspiracy. In December 2023, Trump said undocumented immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country.” As Anne Applebaum did pointed outTrump frequently used inhumane language such as “vermin” in a style and approach reminiscent of Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini.

Speaking in Arizona in mid-October Trump said“When I win on November 5, the immigrant invasion will end and the restoration of our country will begin.” There is no reason not to take Trump at his word. It was never made clear how he planned to end the “invasion.” As in Pittsburgh and El Paso, some Americans may want to take matters into their own hands. It is unrealistic to see an increase in far-right attacks on immigrants, with the perpetrators claiming they are doing what the president wants, taking the country back from “enemies within.” He might even pardon them from federal charges, as he said. would forgive terrorists The person who attacked the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

As demonstrated by a terrorist attack by a far-right extremist against African Americans Buffalo, NY, supermarket May 2022 or the shooting of three African Americans at a Dollar General store Jacksonville, Fla., The racially motivated violence of August 2023 is not unique to the Trump administration. But what violent extremists perceive as a tacit sign of approval based on Trump’s violent rhetoric could lead to a surge in domestic terrorism in an anxious, angry and well-armed country.

Colin P. Clarke is director of research at Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consulting firm in New York City.