Resurgence of terror attacks in Kashmir points to Pakistan’s permanent shadow – Firstpost

The peace in the Kashmir valley, after remaining calm for a while, was shaken by the increase in terrorist attacks. A series of high-profile attacks targeting civilians, non-local laborers and security forces have restored interest in Kashmir. This increase in violence following the last Parliamentary elections and the establishment of the new government has increased concerns about the motive behind the tension. The back-to-back attacks highlight the fragile security environment in Kashmir and Pakistan’s effort to focus on Kashmir after the recent elections and normalization of life in the valley.

Kashmir has two problems: problem inside Kashmir and the problem related to Kashmir. The former saw a major positive trend with near-zero hiring and the repeal of Article 370, which isolated anti-citizens while integrating the region. However, traces of radicalism are still hidden in a few elements that can be exploited by those who oppose the current regime. The other is the Kashmir issue, which is essentially a product of Pakistan’s proxy war created as a means of keeping the “Mullah, Army and Ministers” triad concerned with their survival and deflecting the crisis that threatens survival. The Kashmir issue remains an intractable state-sponsored proxy war engineered by Pakistan’s ISI.

Fragility of Peace in Kashmir

The situation in Kashmir underscores the complex nature of peace, a concept that goes beyond the absence of violence. Effective peacebuilding is a multi-stage process that can be divided into three stages:

Forced Peace (Negative Peace): The first phase, characterized by the suppression of violence, is fragile and time sensitive. Although the violence appears to be controlled, underlying tensions remain.

Adequate Peace: In this intermediate stage, violence is minimized, the rule of law and public order are restored, and a conducive environment is created for political processes to take root.

Lasting Peace: This final phase includes not only the elimination of violence but also the establishment of functional governance, radicalization efforts, and peacebuilding initiatives to prevent future conflicts.

The recent wave of terrorist attacks reveals that Kashmir is stuck between the stages of “sufficient peace” and “lasting peace”. The abrogation of Article 370 and targeting of networks that finance terrorism have reduced some militant activities. Peaceful elections strengthened the democratic process and people’s choice. However, the latest attacks signal that deep-rooted problems continue and that a sustainable, long-term solution has not yet been fully implemented. “Lasting peace” remains a challenge.

Important Events That Signaled the Resurrection

The resurgence of violence was marked by targeted attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. While some may want this to go away as isolated incidents, the wise will realize that if they are not stopped they can result in escalating spirals. Recent notable events include:

Killing of Non-Indigenous: Attacks on non-indigenous and other workers in Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Bandipora, Budgam, Ganderbal and other areas are aimed at disrupting economic stability by weakening socio-economic harmony by creating fear among the migrant workforce. This underlines the militants’ strategy to create widespread panic and destabilize daily life.

Attacks on Security Forces: Encounters and ambushes against security personnel, such as the attack on an army convoy in Akhnoor, reflect an attempt to challenge the authority of the state and undermine public confidence in government control. Two soldiers and two porters were killed in a militant attack on a military vehicle in Gulmarg.

Public Attacks in Srinagar: 10 injured in latest grenade attack at Srinagar’s flea market; this signaled a return of militant activity to urban centers previously thought to be safe. The encounter in Srinagar after two years reminded us of the militant’s presence in the heart of the valley.

This resurgence is a stark reminder of the existence of militancy and the instability of peace in the region. While the security forces have given a befitting response, including the elimination of the so-called Lashkar-e-Taiba top command, it is clear that the rise is to keep the fire of militancy alive.

Reasons Behind Renewed Militancy

Political Uncertainty and Power Transitions: Militant groups may view political transitions, such as recent elections and the formation of a new government, as opportunities to destabilize the region and test the resolve of new leadership. Militancy and politicians have been a traditional mix for survival in the valleys of politics. Cracks in the centre-state divide also have negative effects.

Pakistan’s Proxy War and Terrorist Support: Pakistan’s role in perpetuating the unrest in Jammu and Kashmir is well documented. Despite scrutiny from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), Pakistan-based groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its proxies, including the Resistance Front (TRF), continue to find ways to operate, often by exploiting radical fissures. Pakistan’s ongoing proxy war calls for a global response to hold Islamabad accountable for state-sponsored terrorism and destabilization of the region.

There is pressure on the Pakistan Army (ISI) and its Chief of General Staff, General Asim Munir, from many fronts, including political, internal, Taliban and TTP as well as the western front and economic crises. To divert attention and gain credibility, the terror spigot in J&K has been reopened. It appears to be a ploy to create pressure in Jammu, divert focus and revive militancy in the Valley. This strategy provides an alternative narrative to the post-2019 worldwide abolitions and the peaceful conduct of democratic elections and showcases the Kashmir cause.

Strategic Targeting of Non-Locals: Targeted attacks on non-local workers aim to disrupt the region’s economy and infrastructure development, deter migration and investment, thereby undermining efforts towards socio-economic integration.

Psychological Warfare and Fragile Peace: Militants’ focus on soft targets and crowded public spaces is a form of psychological warfare that highlights the fragile nature of peace in Kashmir. The aim is to instill fear among the population and perpetuate the cycle of violence and insecurity by asserting the limited control of the state.

Local Radicalization and Recruitment: While foreign militants play an important role, local radicalization and toxic ideologies remain a problem. Militants take advantage of this internal fault line to recruit young people, maintaining their local support base despite intense security measures.

Review External and Internal Strategies

The government must approach militancy in Kashmir from a ‘whole of nation’ approach, addressing both the internal and external dimensions of the proxy war. The constant proxy war waged by Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, requires a more aggressive denial strategy focused on criminal deterrence. Periodic ‘mowing the lawn’ is insufficient in military operations; Instead, the focus should be on getting to the root of militancy and dismantling the infrastructure that supports terrorism. One or two surgical interventions are not enough. The need isHit hard, hit where it hurts, hurt where it stands‘ With precision targeting even by a swarm of drones to keep the enemy’s head down.

Complementing the kinetic strategy above is the non-kinetic strategy of the 3M framework – targeting radical ideologies, denying militants men, supplies and money, restricting material support to terrorist networks and disrupting financial channels. This approach should work alongside counterterrorism efforts that bridge the gap between citizens and government, promoting goodwill, governance, and inclusive growth to support peacebuilding in the region.

Necessary Actions for Sustainable Peace

Advanced Intelligence and Surveillance: Gathering real-time intelligence, especially in city centers, is critical to preventing attacks. Intelligence networks must optimize technology to monitor communications between militants. Greater focus is needed on strengthening and integrating the efforts of multiple security forces and intelligence agencies.

Border security strengthened with advanced surveillance technologies is necessary to prevent cross-border infiltration and reduce the external influence of Pakistan-backed militant networks. Search and attack mission drones at militant launch pads need to put in more effort. The militant leadership and supporters need to settle the dust as soon as possible.

Reject, Wear and Disintegrate. Deny entry, safe zones, resources, and space. Weaken the terrorist leadership and cadres’ morale. Dismantle connections to deny collusion between terrorists, underground operatives, overground operatives/supporters, political contacts, and people.

Fighting Digital Propaganda: Militants use social media to radicalize youth. The government should intensify counter-narrative strategies, working with digital platforms to reduce extremist content.

Community Engagement and Building Trust: Building trust between local communities and the government is vital. Involving civil society and local leaders in peacebuilding efforts and addressing legitimate grievances can promote cooperation with security forces.

Focus on Governance and Inclusive Growth: “Development, Empowerment and Security” are essential to expand the valley. Building social balance by ensuring equitable development and addressing grievances will reduce militant recruitment and strengthen security measures.

Pakistan’s International Responsibility: It is crucial to expose Pakistan’s role in promoting terrorism in Kashmir at global forums. Holding Pakistan accountable for its destabilizing actions will increase international pressure on Islamabad to halt its militant activities.

Solution

The recent rise in militant activities reveals the fragile nature of peace in Kashmir, where efforts are still grappling between necessary and adequate peace. Achieving lasting peace requires a robust, multifaceted approach that combines rigorous counterterrorism efforts with community-focused initiatives, economic empowerment and governance reforms. Maintaining social balance is crucial for long-term stability in Jammu and Kashmir. It is essential to build trust among local communities and ensure their active participation in management. Social stability plays a deterrent role in recruiting and supporting militants, thus increasing the effectiveness of security measures.

Centre-state alignment in the spirit of ‘nation above all’ can work towards establishing a lasting peace in Jammu and Kashmir and lay the foundation for sustainable stability and growth in the Valley. Meanwhile, our brave security forces will ensure that those who join or support militancy meet the Almighty as soon as possible.

The author is the former Director General of the Mechanized Forces. The views expressed in the article above are personal and belong solely to the author. These do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.