Are the Bills or Chiefs at the top of the conference ahead of Week 11?

Studying advanced analytics isn’t always the easiest task; For example, what exactly is DVOA or EPA? Ever since we were NFL fans, we knew what total yardage or average distance per carry was. These are easy to understand, but they don’t give the full picture of how good or bad a team is. For example, you might have a team that is weak against the pass, so opponents attack them through the air, and naturally this can skew the defense’s rushing numbers and make them look like good run defenders when they actually are. It may not be.

Although we disagree on the ranking of the top seven teams, it is also interesting to note that advanced analysis shows that these teams are also the seven teams with the best records in the AFC. There may be some debate as to whether or not it’s definitely Kansas City. chefs They belong where they are currently ranked, but according to analysis they are right where they belong. You’ll see where they rank later in this article, but with that said, here’s how the AFC ranks based on analytics heading into Week 11.

For some context on how these rankings are created: it’s important to understand that these are not a subjective team ranking. Nine measurements are used to calculate a unique value for each tool. Metrics are:

The Raiders dropped from 15th to 16th this week, ultimately landing the lowest seed. This is not surprising given their ongoing struggles. This team’s best ranking is 19th in defensive EPA, while it ranks 30th or lower in four of our metrics. This team is well on its way to being a top-five pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

The Patriots were the bottom seed in our AFC rankings for several weeks but eventually moved up one spot. I’m not sure if they’re getting better or if the Raiders are that bad; It’s a mix of the two. New England has had slightly better play at that position since Drake Maye took over at quarterback. Maye is still prone to rookie mistakes, but the Patriots have a good one. They are listed as mid-20s to mid-20s in all but two categories; They rank 29th and 30th in offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA, respectively.

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The Jaguars are getting closer to falling behind the Patriots in our analytics power rankings, which is mind-boggling. Few would argue that the Patriots were a more talented team, but here we were. Is it a coaching or player performance issue? However, this is not an annoying problem and the analysis proves it. The Jaguars’ offense ranks 14th in EPA and 15th in success rate. The problem is defense; They rank 32nd in EPA and 31st in DVOA.

You might think the Browns should trade Myles Garrett at the trade deadline because they aren’t going anywhere this season, but despite their poor record, the defense is solid, ranking 13th in EPA and fourth in success rate. The Browns have a problem on offense, and most of it comes at the quarterback position. The Browns’ offense is terrible; It ranks 30th in EPA, 32nd in success rate, and 32nd in DVOA.

The Titans are all set to rebuild in 2025. They traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs and they may be looking for a new quarterback as well. Will Will Levis learn that he’s not Josh Allen and stop trying to be the store-brand version of the Buffalo quarterback? It’s a million-dollar question and one only coaches can answer. Analytics show the Titans’ defense is still solid, but their offense is terrible; It ranks 31st in EPA, 24th in success rate, and 27th in DVOA.

The Dolphins finally ended their losing streak in Week 10 and picked up a much-needed win against the Rams, who were trying to dig out of a hole. Miami is still 4.5 games behind the Bills and has already fallen to them, so getting back into the division race is nothing short of a miracle. Even though there are a few teams ahead of them, there is still hope for the play-offs. It’s harder to read the analysis for this team because the offense was so bad without Tua Tagovailoa, but now he’s back and the offense is much more effective. This is also seen in the figures; They rank 18th in offensive success but only 27th in EPA.

Just a few weeks ago the Colts were 4-3 and in a good spot. After sophomore Anthony Richardson’s abysmal performance in a 23-20 loss to the Texans, they opted to switch their quarterback, drafting crafty veteran Joe Flacco. The change didn’t help, as he lost both starts and Indianapolis is currently in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Is this season over for the Colts? Maybe not, but if Richardson is the future of this franchise, there’s no point in continuing with Flacco. The Colts aren’t doing very well, other than their offensive success they’re middle of the pack and 31st in the league.

The season would have looked completely different had Cincinnati defeated the Ravens in Week 10. Instead, most people have now written this team off, given that they are in the same league as the Ravens and Steelers, two teams currently in the top five of our power rankings. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were great and the Bengals’ offense was excellent; It ranked fifth in EPA, 11th in success rate, and ninth in DVOA. The team’s overall ranking is negatively affected due to their defensive performance and losses. They can’t rank higher than 27th in any defensive category.

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We discussed the fall of the Super Bowl champions in a meeting during the offseason. last article. This is one of those instances where their play on the field looks much worse than the numbers indicate. However, the Jets played a few good games but lacked consistency and that’s the picture the analytics paint. Their ranks are everywhere; For example, they rank eighth in defensive success rate but only 16th in defensive EPA. Being only 22nd in turnover difference average doesn’t help the win/loss record either.

If you’re a Broncos fan, I’m sure the pain from last week’s loss is still fresh. The Broncos remain in playoff contention and will have another opportunity to face the Chiefs in Week 17. However, the schedule until then is not easy with matchups against the Falcons, Chargers and Bengals. The Broncos’ calling card continues to be their defense; It ranks third in EPA, fifth in success rate, and sixth in DVOA.

The Texans have lost two in a row, but fortunately no one in their division won last week, and only the Titans have not suffered at least two losses in a row. Texans have nothing to worry about. They are as locked in winning the AFC South as the Bills are in winning the AFC East. Their offense wasn’t the same without Nico Collins, but he should be back soon. The defense was magnificent; ranked second in both success rate and DVOA.

The Ravens recovered from a loss against the Bengals and improved to 7-3, but their defense looks set to be this team’s downfall, surprisingly ranking just 26th in EPA and middle of the pack in both pass rate and DVOA. But the offense is outstanding; It ranks second in success rate and first in EPA and DVOA.

The Chiefs narrowly managed to win again in Week 10 and remain unbeaten. However, it did not contribute much to the winning standings and fell from third last week to fourth this week. Kansas City continues to find ways to break free in the end, but the numbers don’t point to an overly dominant team. They rank first in offensive success rate, but only 15th in defensive EPA and 18th in defensive success rate. Another metric that hurts them is average turnover difference, which ranks 24th in the category.

The Steelers dropped one spot to second place after beating the Commanders 28-27 last week. Pittsburgh is on a four-game winning streak and hasn’t lost a single game since Russell Wilson took over. Pittsburgh’s defense was a big reason why they were ranked in the top 10 in the early weeks of our rankings; However, their offensive numbers have improved and have kept them in the top five for the last few weeks. They rank 13th in EPA, 17th in success rate, and 18th in DVOA. Combine that with rankings in the top 10 in defensive EPA and DVOA, as well as second in turnover differential average, and you can see why they rank so highly.

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It was surprising that the Chargers rose to second this week after sitting in fourth place last week, but the numbers don’t lie. They are ranked very well on the defensive side; They rank second in EPA, sixth in success rate, and eighth in DVOA. When you add to this the second place in the turnover average and the fifth place in the score difference average, you can understand how they rose to the second place.

We started our analytical power rankings after the second week of the season. That’s nine consecutive weeks in which the Bills have been ranked high in the conference. Combined league-wide, they rank second behind the Detroit Lions. The Bills are in the top 10 in every category except defensive success rate and currently sit at 13th. They rank in the top three in three categories: third in offensive EPA, second in scoring average, and first in turnover differential. average. The question is, will they hold that spot anytime soon? four game gloves?

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