Why India-Canada ties may be in for a long period of turbulence

India-Canada relations are in free fall. Just when you feel like the bonds have hit rock bottom, there is a surprise waiting for you. It is surreal that India, the world’s most populous democracy, has rapidly transformed from a friendly nation in the Trudeau administration’s playbook to Canada’s most significant security threat.

Canadian security and investigative agencies suddenly discovered that Indian agents and diplomats were involved in criminal activities on its territory, including murder, extortion, espionage and intimidation. Even the Indian High Commissioner was not spared.

It is worth remembering that the same agencies failed to prevent the planting of explosives on an Air India Kanishka jet plane in 1985, when it exploded in mid-air, killing 329 people. They also failed to bring the perpetrators to justice.

Violent crime, including the murder rate, is on the rise in Canada. Organized crime groups, each with their own unique structures and activities, generally operate with relative impunity. While the security establishment is busy spying on diplomats, gang wars are becoming increasingly common.

There seems to be a competition brewing within the Canadian establishment to concoct newer and more outlandish accusations against India. The latest ‘reveal’ is that Indian state-backed actors are conducting cyber espionage against the Canadian government. Other countries mentioned inCyber ​​Threat from Enemies of the State The report includes China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Given the current tenor of diplomatic tensions, it would be little surprise if India were soon accused of orchestrating natural disasters or interfering with Canada’s democratic processes. After all, India is a ‘manipulative global power’ and Canada is an ‘innocent victim’!

India’s foreign office described the cyber fiction as “yet another example of Canada’s strategy to attack India” and noted that senior Canadian officials had openly admitted, without any evidence, that they were trying to manipulate global public opinion against India.

Canadian national security and intelligence advisor Nathalie Drouin and Deputy Secretary of State David Morrison admitted that information on India’s alleged illegal activities was leaked to the United States. Washington PostEven before anything was made public in Canada.

They disingenuously maintained that no confidential information was shared and described the move as ‘strategic communication’ aimed at gaining widespread coverage of their narrative. The newspaper is known for its anti-India bias.

This action not only amounted to a breach of diplomatic trust with India as details of secret talks in Singapore emerged within hours, but also contradicted Canada’s assertion that public disclosure could jeopardize ongoing investigations.

The episode shows how the Trudeau government is playing with the media and public. The silence of the Canadian media in the face of being overlooked and eclipsed by an American newspaper raises important questions about its independence, role and objectivity.

Disappointingly, not only the media but also much of the Canadian public accepted the political theatrics of a struggling administration without critical scrutiny. Few questioned why India suddenly acted the way it did, demanded concrete evidence, or examined the timing of these serious accusations.

Voices like that of Sikh and former British Columbia Premier Ujjal Dosanjh are rare. He has publicly called Justin Trudeau a Khalistani, criticizing him for aligning with separatists and appointing them to his cabinet, and has also allied with Jagmeet Singh, who is known for his pro-Khalistani stance.

India is a civilizational state and an open book; It is not a narrow-minded region closed to the world. Hundreds of thousands of Canadians have been traveling to India for decades. Canada is home to more than 2.5 million people of Indian origin. More than 400,000 Indian students study in Canada. Canadian pension funds have invested 75 billion Canadian dollars in India.

The critical question is whether the damage to bilateral political ties can be contained or whether it will create a ripple effect that could negatively impact the overall relationship, which is undesirable for all parties involved. Before answering this question, it would be useful to look at the picture from a broader perspective.

The fact of the matter is that the Khalistani issue has bedeviled the India-Canada relationship for almost half a century. Canadian political leaders turned a blind eye to pro-Khalistani elements’ separatist and violent activities, using them as a potential vote bank. Rather than being marginalized, these groups have been brought into the mainstream in Canada. They not only occupied cabinet seats, but also systematically infiltrated all nerves of the Canadian administration, including the security apparatus, administrative bodies and the judiciary.

They demonstrated their clout and influence by forcing the Trudeau government to delete all references to Khalistani and “Sikh extremism” from Canada’s 2018 annual terrorism threat report. It was not just a coincidence that Harjit Sajjan, a Khalistani supporter, was Canada’s defense minister at the time. After serving in the police and army.

The mindset of the Canadian government is exemplified by the recent case of a Khalistani fugitive sought extradition by India for his involvement in terrorist activities in Punjab. The Canadian government responded by hiring him at the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and even promoting him to the position of inspector.

In Canada, Hindu temples are being targeted by Khalistani extremists without any fear of law and worshipers are being attacked more and more frequently. Just the other day, Harinder Sohi, a Canadian police officer of Indian origin, was found demonstrating with Khalistani traitors outside a Hindu temple in Brampton; some attacked the devotees.

India condemned the violence around the temple and expressed deep concern about the safety and security of Indian citizens in Canada. Canadian opposition leader Pierre Poilievre accused Trudeau of sowing discord in Indian society that has led to violent conflict. Cornered, the Canadian Prime Minister admitted the existence of Khalistanis in the country.

But the same Poilievre was quick to cancel the traditional Diwali function organized by the Canadian opposition party on Parliament Hill for fear of offending Khalistanis and being seen as pro-Hindu. He might also have calculated that the Hindu community, which had already lost faith in Trudeau’s Liberals, would have little choice but to support the Conservatives.

Regardless, there is little distinction between Canada’s political parties when it comes to vote bank considerations. In other words, even if the Conservatives return to power in the next election, likely to be held in October 2025, the tolerant attitude towards Khalistani extremists is likely to continue, albeit to varying degrees.

That’s not all. Anti-immigrant sentiment in Canada is also intensifying due to various socio-economic factors. The Trudeau administration has admitted more than a million immigrants and temporary residents in some years, as opposed to the historical norm of around 300,000. This increase has coincided with increasing economic challenges, including stagnant GDP growth, rising unemployment (particularly severe among young people, reaching 15 percent), rising housing costs, strained healthcare, and a significant increase in the cost of living.

Faced with increasing public pressure, the Trudeau administration implemented sweeping changes to Canada’s immigration and education policies. It announced significant reductions in the intake of permanent residents, temporary workers and international students. As a result, more than 70,000 international graduate students, a significant number of whom are from India, now face deportation.

The sudden change in policies has left tens of thousands of Indian students in a precarious situation. Many had invested their families’ life savings to pursue education and build a promising future in Canada. Through no fault of their own, they suddenly find their desires shattered and they find themselves hopeless and trapped.

Indian students considering traveling to Canada need to carefully weigh the potential uncertainties they may face. Whether Canada will remain the hospitable and opportunistic destination it once was is debatable.

This is the socio-political and security minefield that India-Canada relations must navigate through. India has invested significant diplomatic capital to build solid relations with Canada and wants to maintain this momentum, but cannot tolerate the continued nurturing of anti-India separatist groups on Canadian soil or the attacks and vilification of Indian diplomats and community members in the country.

Given the realities on the ground, maintaining a business-as-usual approach looks increasingly untenable and wider relations are likely to face serious strain. Barring an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough, bilateral relations appear poised for a period of turbulence, at least in the short and medium term. There is a glimmer of hope that wiser advice will prevail to stabilize the relationship against further damage.

The author is a foreign relations expert and former ambassador to Canada and South Korea. The views expressed in the article above are personal and belong solely to the author. These do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.