LSU vs. Florida prediction: Who will win and why?

SEC football continues as No. 22 LSU visits Florida between two rivals facing losses they would rather forget. Here are our updated predictions for the match and what you should pay attention to in the match.

LSU has almost certainly fallen out of College Football Playoff contention after last week’s ugly defeat at home to rival Alabama, or more accurately, must win at home, including a bowl, to finish with 10 wins.

Florida lost to Texas last week in a 49-17 decision with third-string quarterback Aidan Warner leading the offense and needing two wins in its final three games to be bowl eligible, but here are the Gators’ five losses became: CFP’s top 25 teams.

What can we expect as the Tigers and Gators face off in this SEC rivalry matchup?

Here’s what you need to pay attention to as LSU and Florida meet again in this Week 12 college football matchup with our updated predictions for the game.

1. Is LSU really out of this? This loss to Alabama certainly put a bruise on LSU’s playoff chances, but mathematically speaking, there’s a path to the SEC championship game. You may need a calculator to get it right, but it’s there.

LSU needs to win, of course, and also Alabama and Tennessee need to lose at least one more time each, and then it can sneak in as a conference winning percentage tiebreaker. It’s a long shot, of course, but LSU’s season isn’t quite over.

2. Lagway’s return. Gators quarterback DJ Lagway appears on track to return this week after missing last week’s game against Georgia with a leg injury. Lagway, who was initially listed as questionable, appeared on UF’s injury report over the weekend.

Lagway played in eight games this season, completing 61 percent of his passes for 1,071 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 picks, and in his only game in the SEC, Florida had a season-best 48 points passing for 259 yards and another 46 yards. He is rushing.

Having him on the floor gives the Gators a significant advantage behind center, who has proven he can make deeper passes and move with his legs despite his inexperience, and has struggled against an LSU defense that is vulnerable to both.

3. Transfer problem. LSU’s offense relies heavily on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. Garrett Nussmeier leads an offense that ranks No. 5 in the FBS, passing the ball more than 61 percent of the time, including on 42 of the team’s 66 offensive plays in the loss to Alabama.

While he ranks second in the SEC in passing yards and touchdowns this season, he also has 11 interceptions, second most in the conference, with 6 ties in the last 6 quarters, 3 against the Aggies and 2 with fumbles. Against the tide.

Most football computer prediction models are favoring the Tigers against the Gators this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

LSU comes out ahead in computer game simulations by a slim majority of 57.5 percent.

The other 42.5 percent of Sims win, much to the chagrin of Florida.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory? We expect a close one.

According to the model’s latest prediction, LSU is projected to be only 2.7 points better than Florida in the same area. To sum it up, let’s call this a shooting game for the Tigers.

More… LSU vs. Florida prediction: What analytics say

According to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook, LSU is a 3.5-point favorite over Florida.

FanDuel pegged the total for the game at 55.5 points (over-115, under-105).

And it lists outright win odds for LSU at -170 and Florida at +140.

Lagway’s presence on the field keeps things interesting for the Gators. He’s no Jalen Milroe, but his combination of reliable enough mid-range accuracy and in-pocket mobility presents a credible challenge against LSU’s malevolent secondary and front seven.

Still, the Gators have struggled to 8 draws in the last 4 games and are not running a consistent enough offense that Nussmeier still can despite his recent struggles.

Florida ranks 90th nationally against the pass and 95th against the run; This should provide some reliable shooting lanes for LSU to utilize and even expand its so-far limited offensive capabilities.

College Football Headquarters selections…

More… LSU vs. expert football model Florida score prediction

When: Saturday, November 16
Time: 15:30 Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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