Experts fear Trump’s environmental policies could undermine Vermont’s efforts

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the presidency, experts worry that Trump’s climate and environmental policy goals could destabilize ongoing work in Vermont.

The president-elect campaigned to scrap policies related to climate change and loosen or abandon environmental regulations.

As a small state, Vermont relies on federal funds and regulatory frameworks to support a variety of environmental programs; so Vermonters and the organizations that work for them will likely feel the policy change directly.

The former president is scheduled to take office at a time rife with the effects of human-caused climate change, including unprecedented climate warming and historic floods that have hit Vermont repeatedly in both states. July 2023 And 2024.

“2023 was the warmest year on record,” said Dartmouth College geography professor Justin Mankin. “It is now almost certain that 2024 will be the hottest year in history. “The warming march continues, and the effects associated with that warming continue to emerge.”

Trump has called climate change a “fraud” and plans to expand fossil fuel production. HE plans to repeal He’s pulling out all the stops on the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark climate law passed by the Biden Administration.

“I don’t think, generally speaking, that any agency, any law, any regulation that deals with the environment is safe from a serious effort to deregulate and repeal, frankly, pretty much everything that Biden has done,” retired professor Patrick Parenteau said. and senior fellow in climate policy at the Vermont Law and Graduate School.

Federal funding picture

In a typical year, about one-third of the Vermont Natural Resources Agency’s nearly $200 million budget comes from the federal government, according to its leader, Secretary Julie Moore. Under the Biden Administration, the agency received an extra $100 million through legislation such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

From there, that money was distributed to a long list of projects across the state. Some went to State Revolving Fund programs that provide low-interest loans to municipalities for water and wastewater improvements. Some have turned to brownfield reclamation, and more have turned to programs that keep soil healthy and protect forests.

Over the past three years, the state has received money from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act to manage PFAS, long-lived “forever chemicals” that contaminate drinking water and pose harmful health risks.

Money from the Inflation Reduction Act was funneled to a number of government agencies, including the Department of Public Service, for projects such as improving electrical panels for low-income people, air conditioning work, and the Solar For All program, which helps low-income earners. Vermonters are installing solar panels.

Through the 2022 law, individuals will also be able to claim tax credits when purchasing electric vehicles, installing solar panels, or taking a host of other actions that could help reduce emissions that are causing the warming of the planet.

Parenteau said it’s hard to know how much of the money from the Inflation Reduction Act has already been obligated by contracts and is therefore safe. He said Trump would need approval from Congress to cancel or withdraw appropriations that have already been made. Parenteau said that even in a Republican-controlled Senate and House, it may be difficult for the president to persuade Congress to repeal the funding; the majority of funds were allocated to Republican districts.

The Inflation Reduction Act also gave the private sector momentum toward a clean energy transition that Trump likely won’t be able to reverse, although Parenteau said it’s possible Trump could “significantly reduce some of his programs.”

“A lot of the market forces that are trying to transform both the electric industry and the transportation industry through EVs — those trends in the market will continue regardless of Trump,” Parenteau said.

Moore said he was hopeful that some of Trump’s campaign promises could be “toned down” by overall bureaucracy and more votes for each policy, but acknowledged that “the federal funding landscape is going to change pretty dramatically.”

liberalization authority

Recently, Trump announced plans to appoint Lee Zeldin, a former Republican member of the U.S. House from Long Island, to head the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Zeldin Lacks expertise in environmental policy and has not held relevant positions in the past.

Even so, Zeldin has done “some good things,” Parenteau said, including supporting investments in cleaning up Long Island Sound and supporting PFAS regulation.

“He is not a climate denier,” Parenteau said. “He thinks the answer to the climate problem is more about carbon capture and technologies that allow continued use of fossil fuels, but also accelerating the construction of nuclear power plants and so on.”

Vermont agencies cooperate with the Environmental Protection Agency in many ways; for example, to ensure that the state’s water and air quality meets federal standards. The agency oversees efforts to improve the water quality of Vermont’s Lake Champlain and other bodies of water and holds the state accountable if more needs to be done.

EPA may also take certain actions outside of Vermont that would impact the Green Mountain State. For example, when California put forward a rule banning new gasoline-powered cars from being sold within the state after 2035, Vermont and 15 other states – followed team.

But California is the only state that can impose stricter standards for automobiles than those set out in the federal Clean Air Act because of the exemption the state receives from the Environmental Protection Agency, and other states can adopt those regulations only if they comply with California’s rules. . Parenteau said Trump has indicated his intention to revoke California’s waiver, meaning the 2035 regulations “may be in the process of being cut.”

Zeldin will also oversee strategies to manage toxic chemicals, including PFAS. The federal government recently set a stricter drinking water standard for PFAS, and enough time has passed for Trump to not be able to repeal the regulation, Moore and Parenteau said. But Vermont may not receive much funding to manage the chemicals, which can be a costly process.

“Left to his own devices, (Zeldin) can be someone you can negotiate with at least on some issues,” Parenteau said. “But the real question is; Will he be given any of this latitude? “His mission is to deregulate and overturn Biden’s rules.”

A warming planet

Moore, who took over as head of Vermont’s natural resources department when Trump took office in 2017, said discussions about federal funds were important in those early days.

But according to him, “The biggest difference in the environmental arena between my first four years on this job and my second four years on this job was the lack of federal leadership in the first four years.”

Earlier in his term, Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement, an international agreement to reduce climate emissions. He plans to do it again — Biden rejoined the agreement on his first day in office. Without a federal commitment, states have signed on to the Climate Alliance, pledging to take action under the Paris Agreement to reduce pollution that is warming the planet. From there, Vermont’s Global Warming Solutions Act of 2020 was born.

But climate experts worry that states’ actions will not be enough to meet the moment. Vermont’s own climate policies It may be a difficult road forward It comes after this month’s state elections, in which Republicans made big gains in the Legislature after campaigning against the state’s climate policies.

“You have more red states than blue states right now, and unfortunately climate has become a partisan issue, so you’re going to get a patchwork,” Parenteau said.

And if climate action slows down, the world will certainly warm up too, increasing the risk of danger from extreme weather.

Parenteau said events like the recent flooding in Vermont “are not going to stop; in fact, they’re going to get worse.” This means “states like Vermont would face enormous damage, disaster relief and adaptation costs,” which “could fall on taxpayers.”

It’s not yet clear whether Trump plans to make major cuts to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. He has said he plans to deny California disaster aid for wildfires unless the state complies with its own policies, a stance that worries Mankin of Dartmouth.

A report published earlier this year It found that Vermont was among the states that received the highest number of federal disaster declarations due to extreme weather.

Mankin is concerned that if Vermont requests a disaster declaration “and if the Trump administration decides for some reason that this is an advantage to something that has a vested interest in Vermont, it may withdraw its request for that declaration” or offer until some kind of concession comes from the state. turn it down.”

Vermont has relied on FEMA funding not only to respond immediately after a flood, but also to rebuild in ways that reduce flooding or divert water away from people.

If Trump is motivated to take action on climate change, it will come after witnessing tangible economic losses, Mankin said.

“The Trump administration’s recognition that climate change is a problem that needs to be fought means that it will affect everyone and it will cost everyone something, and that means real pain and real loss,” Mankin said.