Measles: New outbreak could be worse than 2019, with up to 90 cases per week

“New Zealand is perilously close to a measles epidemic and this case should serve as a stark reminder that the risk of a measles outbreak in New Zealand is very high,” health officer Dr Lavina Permual said.

In February, Minister of Health Dr. Shane Reti sought assurances from officials that the “people, policies and pieces” were in place to prevent and manage a measles outbreak in New Zealand. A series of briefings were released over the coming months.

New Zealand is generally well prepared to respond to measles outbreaks, but a large or prolonged outbreak would put “significant” pressure on the health system, an assessment by the Ministry of Health has said.

International measles rates have increased in the past two years, driven by large outbreaks in Malaysia and the Philippines, and the resumption of international travel to pre-pandemic levels increases the risk of attacks, officials said.

New Zealand’s measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rate is well below the 95% needed for herd immunity, showing only 79% of children aged 1 to 4 have been vaccinated, officials said. Rates were also low in people ages 24 to 44 with low immunity to measles, despite the catch-up campaign in 2020.

Vaccination rates were now lower than during the 2019 outbreak in New Zealand, when 2000 people were infected and 700 were hospitalized. The epidemic also spread to Samoa and 83 people died, most of them children under the age of 5.

“In light of our low vaccination rates, an outbreak or series of outbreaks could be more severe than those experienced in 2019,” the briefing said.

The draft Cabinet document prepared for Reti said the cost to the healthcare system would be “significantly greater” than the $16 million toll of the 2019 pandemic. This figure did not include the cost of the emergency vaccination campaign or wider economic costs.

Modeling by the Environmental Science and Research Institute (ESR) predicts that a future epidemic will peak at between 80 and 90 cases per week unless there is an increase in vaccinations. In the worst-case scenario, it is estimated that there will be 130 cases per week.

Modeling said if vaccination rates were increased by 5% in just one region (County Manukau), the number of cases would likely halve. Achieving herd immunity would reduce the peak by approximately 80%.

Reti was told that a sustained outbreak would put pressure on GPs, hospital and specialist services; It was stated that there is currently a shortage of doctors and office nurses, especially in primary health care. This would also require additional funding for the healthcare system, which is currently in the process of severe budget cuts.

A Cabinet document published in May set out a number of priorities for preventing an outbreak, including creating an “immunity wall” and improving ventilation in schools, one of the environments most vulnerable to airborne transmission.

An external review of New Zealand’s pandemic preparedness concluded the ministry’s assessment was comprehensive but “overly optimistic in some areas”.

The review by a group of experts said they were “deeply alarmed” by the continuing decline in childhood vaccinations and the “failure of current efforts to combat it”. They made a number of recommendations regarding governance, surveillance, surveillance, vaccination and epidemic planning.

“We encourage the healthcare sector to fully embrace the recommendations in this report. “Without deliberate and urgent action, New Zealand faces a major measles epidemic.”

The ministry and New Zealand’s Ministry of Health said they accepted all recommendations.

Vaccine expert Dr. from the University of Auckland. Helen Petousis-Harris said there are a number of obstacles to preventing the epidemic, especially labor shortages and an increase in disinformation. Finding solutions to these problems will require a national and multifaceted response, he said.

Petousis-Harris said it was a relief that the disease was not spreading in Waiheke, where vaccine coverage is known to be low.

“It’s like shooting fire at a collection of dry tinder, as opposed to a soggy rainforest. But I think it’s just a matter of time.”

Isaac Davison is an Auckland-based reporter covering health issues. he joined reporter He had previously covered environmental, political and social issues in 2008.

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