Parliament’s last two weeks of the year will make or break Labour’s agenda

Anthony Albanese’s political agenda is in jeopardy as his government prepares for the final parliamentary session of the year, with dozens of signature policies unresolved.

While the Prime Minister has laughed off election speculation, Labor insiders privately admit that the two-week session that begins today could also be the last of the term.

That might be true if an election is held by mid-March, as no session is scheduled for January, but even the latest possible election date in May would only leave the Senate sitting for 10 more days.

This raises the prospect that Labor may be forced to abandon any of the dozens of bills it cannot pass through an unfriendly Senate in the coming days, or return to voters with a long to-do list that includes unfulfilled promises from the last election.

International student borders, elder care, political donations and misinformation laws are among the high-profile priorities in limbo. What will be done, what will be left behind?

Education

The university sector will dominate the start of the fortnight with the Senate debating international student limits and HECS indexation on Monday.

The government’s bid to roll back abnormally large indexation over the past two years is shaping up as an easy win after a Senate inquiry revealed no major objections from either the Coalition or the Greens.

However, the outlook for student limits is unclear. Labor must first confront its own senators’ proposal to rein in the scope of the bill by setting limits only at campus level rather than course level.

Then he must agree with the tight-lipped opposition on whether to pass the bill, which he calls “full of anomalies and errors.”

Meanwhile, the sector remains uncertain about how many students it will be able to accept in the next academic year.

Later in the week, the Senate will also debate, with no apparent opposition, a proposal to establish a student ombudsman.

The government is also seeking to introduce new regulations for school funding and is proposing to maintain a 20 per cent floor for the Commonwealth contribution, with the ability to vary between jurisdictions.

Crossbenchers, the teaching union and some states and territories have their doubts, but the Coalition’s view will be decisive and could become clearer when the Senate committee reports on Monday.

Finally, a bill to secure permanent federal subsidies for TAFE is likely to pass Parliament, but the Coalition appears skeptical about its benefits, given high TAFE failure rates and industry concerns about disadvantaging non-TAFE VET providers .

elderly care

On Tuesday, the Senate will debate the government’s overhaul of aged care fees and regulations.

The coalition has already said it would support the proposed new fee structure that would make higher-income residents pay more, but it wants a few changes.

Labor has yet to respond, but Aged Care Minister Anika Wells said on Sunday she would set up a working group to assist the sector with the changes. Ms Wells told the ABC the government plans to pass the bill this year.

Elections

The coalition may be more amenable to Labour’s plan to impose caps on political donations and campaign spending, which will be tabled in parliament on Monday.

Crossbench and Clive Palmer are furious at media reports about the plan, which they say will stifle both their ability to challenge the major parties.

The reforms, which may not come into effect in time for the next election, could also result in major parties receiving tens of millions of dollars more in public funds, while smaller parties and independents also gain.

Legislation on accuracy standards in political advertising will also be introduced, based on similar legislation in South Australia, but Labor appears resigned to their failure.

Supermarkets and airlines

The way was cleared late last week to give the ACCC new powers to screen mergers and acquisitions (including supermarkets) after the opposition said it had no major objections.

But on most fronts, the government is running out of time. His plan for tougher supermarket penalties for mistreating suppliers is still no more than a draft, and there has been no word yet on the ACCC’s review of supermarket pricing practices.

As for airlines, a Senate report on a plan to reform the allocation of flight slots at Sydney airport is due to be released on Wednesday and the Coalition is hinting it is unhappy with the situation.

social media

Despite opposition calls for an immediate ban, the government is still waiting to trial age verification technology before implementing social media age limits.

The plan to impose obligations on platforms to respond to misinformation and disinformation is at risk of failure due to staunch opposition from the Coalition and a dwindling number of cross-raters open to assessing the bill.

The next two weeks will also see the government pressing for obligations on social media platforms, banks and telcos to prevent fraud, although the bill will not require them to compensate customers, to the disappointment of some cross-raters.

The timing of the ban on gambling advertising on social media and elsewhere is unclear.

Housing

The Greens have made a last-ditch bid to pass Labour’s two-stage housing bill in exchange for more social housing support, but there is no sign of attracting government interest.

Environment

The Greens have also offered to pass a new environmental approval regime if Labor toughens deforestation protections, abandoning a bid to block projects with high carbon footprints for now.

economic policy

The window is closing for the Greens to support Labor’s proposal to tax super balances over $3 million at 15 per cent; The small party says it’s not hard enough.

They are also key to the passage of the bill to establish the Made in Australia Future investment plan; but the plan is moving forward without the bill, which mostly deals with establishing guidelines for investment.

There appears to be a reasonable prospect of regulating the buy now, pay later sector and passing new multinational tax rules as early as this week, but there is little change in the Reserve Bank reforms.

law reform

Family law changes aimed at recognizing financial abuse as a form of domestic violence and preventing courts from declaring joint custody of pets will be debated this week. Neither the opposition nor the Greens raised any serious objections.

While both parties welcome privacy reforms with moderate enthusiasm, there is no timeline yet for a bill that would criminalize hate speech that incites violence.

Migration

The government’s reshaping of the work visa system is likely to be debated in the Senate this week and likely to be supported by the opposition.

Legislation responding to the Supreme Court’s decision this month regarding ankle monitors for noncitizens will be considered in the House.

And also much more…

Stricter cybersecurity standards for smart devices will be discussed this week, as well as plans to regulate veterans’ rights, set up the mechanism to give childcare workers a pay rise and block the privatization of the NBN, which the Coalition has called a “regrettable stunt”. “