How Did Young Americans Moving to Rural Areas Affect the Election?

• In recent years, young Americans have moved to rural areas at rates not seen in decades.
• But that doesn’t mean they’re turning rural areas red.
• Millennials and Generation Z have become more conservative, as has the country as a whole.

In the years before the election, young people flocked from urban areas to rural counties at record rates; but they didn’t need to bring big-city politics with them.

Actually, nine out of the top 10 Counties visited by Americans 25 to 44 year olds voted between 2020 and 2023 This year is for Trump. These are all the best counties classified rural or with a population of less than 250,000.

This is based on Business Insider’s analysis: The 2020 and 2024 election results, The New York Times reported, and a September report Open Immigration patterns among young Americans By University of Virginia demographer Hamilton Lombard.

Even Hays County, Texas, the only county in this group to vote Democratic in both 2020 and 2024, moved further into the red, as seen in the chart below. The colored swing column in the chart shows the percentage point change in Trump’s vote share between 2020 and 2024. Blue squares mean fewer of that county’s votes went to Trump in 2024; but as seen in the last two columns, the majority still favored the Republicans in both elections. Red counties tilted more toward Trump in 2024 than in 2020.

Politics of America’s states are changing

Rural areas shifted to the right and large cities New York turns significantly red Economist, between 2020 and 2024 Jed Kolko. he said Some of the change in already conservative regions may be due to immigrants wanting to go somewhere that aligns with their policies. City residents may also have become more conservative.

“People who leave the big blue cities probably don’t have the same politics or exactly the same politics as the people who stay,” Kolko said. “And wanting to move to a community where people have similar views may be among the reasons someone moves.”

Generation Y and Generation Z, both of which are represented in the age group of 25 to 44, were mostly in the group between the ages of 25 and 44. Right. Vice President Kamala Harris’ margins They are among those groups shrinking from President Joe Biden’s lead in 2020 to shrinking in 2024, according to CNN’s exit poll as of Nov. 6, the most recent data available.

While the turnout of voters aged 18-29 increased in 2020, it fell again in 2024. Voters have become more conservative. While 46% of young voters voted for Trump in 2024, this rate was 36% in 2020. an analysis From the nonpartisan Center for Civic Learning and Engagement Information and Research.

Of course, early exit poll data has a wide margin of error. As more votes are counted in the coming days and months, more precise data on the shape of the 2024 electorate will be released.

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Data It also suggests that while age may not be as predictive of political allegiance, where people migrate may be a little more instructive, according to the bipartisan public policy organization. Economic Innovation Group. Red areas with an influx of immigration from blue counties saw smaller swings toward Trump in some cases, with Trump losing vote share in at least one of those counties.

Some of these voting swings can be attributed to increased political polarization along education lines.

“There is a trend in many elections where more people with college degrees vote more democratically,” Kolko said. he said. “This trend was even stronger in 2024 than in previous years.”

Did you move to a rural area or somewhere more suited to your politics? Contact this reporter at: [email protected].