History says winning the WNBA Draft Lottery is a really big deal

This column is part of SB Nation’s new “WNBA Description” series is a new weekly column that dives into different topics related to women’s basketball.

It’s undoubtedly good news for an NBA team to win the Draft Lottery; but historically it is not HE The player they will probably choose will lead them to the championship.

However, WNBA#1 choice A lot He will likely be a franchise player for a team. And statistically, as crazy as it sounds, there’s a good chance they’ll eventually bring a championship to the city they were drafted into.

So, when Dallas Wings win WNBA Draft Lottery Last Sunday, the results were immediately tremendous.

The Wings, who just finished a disappointing 9-31 regular season season, are widely expected to be the pick. UConn guard Paige Bueckers, assuming the phenom forgoes a potential sixth year of college eligibility and enters the draft.

It’s not like Paige’s going to Dallas quite a few something for sure. Howard Megdal from The Next Some sources around the league have reported that Bueckers believes he could force his way to the Los Angeles Sparks and that he has the tools to do so. It’s also possible that strong play from another star like USC’s Kiki Iriafen could force the Wings to reconsider their planned top pick. This outcome is unlikely, but given the Clark-like business boom there is potential to bring in Bueckers’ stardom)

If Bueckers is indeed the No. 1 pick as currently projected, she would be the sixth top pick from the University of Connecticut, along with Breanna Stewart (2016), Maya Moore (2011), Tina Charles (2010). , Diana Taurasi (2004) and Sue Bird (2002). To call this group an “elite company” would be an understatement; The five Huskies have combined for 14 WNBA championships, 6 MVPs and 44 All-Star selections (and counting).

Whatever happens next, Bueckers is following in the footsteps of the all-time greats.

What the No. 1 Pick Can Do for a Franchise on the Field

It’s relatively common in the NBA for No. 1 overall picks to not develop into stars. There was Michael Olowakandi in 1998, Kwame Brown in 2001, Greg Oden in 2007, Anthony Bennett in 2013, Ben Simmons in 2016, Markelle Fultz in 2017 and DeAndre Ayton in 2018; the list goes on.

In fact, since 1997 (the year the WNBA was founded), Only The No. 1 picks who won NBA championships with the teams they were drafted to were Tim Duncan, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. (Excluding the 2016 Cavaliers championship, that would just be Duncan. And LeBron had to leave Cleveland and return before getting the coveted ring).

But in the WNBA, the best picks are almost always the ones that change the franchise. There are a few exceptions, of course, but the only No. 1 pick in the last 20 years to fail to become a cornerstone of the franchise was Charli Collier, who coincidentally was selected by the Wings with the top pick in 2021. (Collier is no longer in the WNBA and plays professional basketball in Australia).

So while the Wings know better than anyone that success is not guaranteed, history shows it is likely. For proof, here’s a complete list of which players have been drafted No. 1 overall since the league’s inception in 1997 and how many championships they brought to the team that drafted them.

1997: Tina Thompson (Southern California) Selected by Houston Comets
Won 4 championships with the Comets

1998: Margo Dydek (Poland) Selected by Utah Starzz

1999: Chamique Grip Claw (Tennessee) Selected by Washington Mystics

2000: Ann Wauters (France) Selected by Cleveland Rockers

2001: Lauren Jackson (Australia) Selected by Seattle Storm
We won 2 championships with Storm

2002: Sue Bird (UConn) Selected by Seattle Storm
We won 4 championships with Storm

2003: LaToya Thomas (Mississippi State) Selected by Cleveland Rockers

2004: Diana Taurasi (UConn) was selected by the Phoenix Mercury
We won 3 championships with Mercury

2005: Janel McCarville (Minnesota) Selected by Charlotte Sting

2006: Seimone Augustus (LSU) was selected by the Minnesota Lynx
Won 4 championships with Lynx

2007: Lindsey Harding (Duke) Selected by Phoenix Mercury

2008: Candace Parker (Tennessee) Selected by Los Angeles Sparks
We won 1 championship with Sparks

2009: Angel McCoughtry (Louisville) Selected by Atlanta Dream

2010: Tina Charles (UConn) Selected by Connecticut Sun

2011: Maya Moore (UConn) Selected by Minnesota Lynx
Won 4 championships with Lynx

2012: Nneka Ogwumike (Stanford) Selected by Los Angeles Sparks
We won 1 championship with Sparks

2013: Brittney Griner (Baylor) Selected by Phoenix Mercury
We won 1 championship with Mercury

2014: Chiney Ogwumike (Stanford) Selected by Connecticut Sun

2015: Jewell Lloyd (Notre-Dame) Selected by Seattle Storm
We won 2 championships with Fırtına

2016: Breanna Stewart (UConn) Selected by Seattle Storm
We won 2 championships with Fırtına

2017: Kelsey Erik Selected by (Washington) Atlanta Dream

2018: A’ja Wilson (South Carolina) Selected by Las Vegas Aces
We won 2 championships with aces

2019: Jackie Young (Notre Dame) Selected by Las Vegas Ace
We won 2 championships with aces

2020: Sabrina Ionescu (Oregon) Selected by New York Liberty
Won 1 championship with Liberty

2021: Charlie Collier (Texas) Selected by Dallas Wings

2022: Rhyne Howard (Kentucky) Selected by Atlanta Dream

2023: Aliyah Boston (South Carolina) Selected by Indiana Fever

2024: Caitlin Clark (Iowa) Selected by Indiana Fever

The top picks were combined for players drafted between 1997-2020, giving them a total of 33 WNBA championships. In those 23 years, 14 No. 1s won championships with the original franchise. It seems like a reasonable bet that Boston and Clark can increase that number, but SB Nation has stopped evaluating players drafted after 2020 because they haven’t reached their prime yet.

So statistically speaking, if a WNBA team wins the Lottery, very good chance (13/23 or about 60% over the first two decades of league history) that the franchise will continue to win championships. with it is the best choice.

If you remove the necessity of winning with the first team, the success of the top picks individually increases. Every once in a while, the No. 1 pick goes to a different team and wins there; Kelsey Plum, who was drafted by the Dream but earned two chips with the Aces, is an example. But history has overwhelmingly shown that it is the star’s WNBA team that reaps the most from the fruits of their success.

On average, each No. 1 pick led the team that drafted them to 1.4 WNBA championships. This isn’t exactly a representative figure – players like Maya Moore and Tina Thompson (4 rings each) inflate those numbers – and as the number of teams in the league increases, winning a championship will become an even more difficult feat to achieve.

Still, looking at how previous picks have panned out: It’s not a big leap to say that if the Dallas Wings drafted Paige Bueckers, they would likely win a championship with her — at some point.

What Can the No. 1 Pick Do for a Franchise Off the Field?

WNBA championships are the ultimate goal; In recent weeks, nearly every newly hired WNBA coach has publicly stated their intention to win a ring at their introductory press conference.

But championship or not, the Fever’s 2024 season was a resounding success.

Caitlin Clark more than triples Indiana’s average home attendance; The series went from having the second-lowest attendance average (~4,000 fans) in the league to the highest attendance average (~17,000).

And Indiana’s TV ratings are through the roof; More than 1 million viewers attended 23 WNBA games, and Clark played in 20 of them. The Fever won 90% of their matches broadcast nationally In the 2024 season, there was a remarkable jump compared to the 35% level of the previous season. Clark and Co. it broke a number of other viewing records.

Wings also has a lot of room for attendance growth. There was in Dallas second lowest attendance Among all WNBA teams in 2024, there will be an average of 5,200 fans per game at College Park Center.

If Bueckers were to go to Dallas, he would likely increase those numbers dramatically, even if the impact wasn’t as extreme as Clark’s.

It’s important to deny that Clark is far from the average No. 1 pick; She arrived in the WNBA as one of the most exciting prospects in the history of the sport and NCAA Division I basketball’s all-time leading scorer. In her four years at Iowa, Clark has gained a fan base that no other female college player has ever achieved.

Still, it showed what a single star can do. And with 2 million Instagram followers and one of the most well-known players in college basketball, male or female, Bueckers will undeniably be a major ratings boost. Bueckers’ marketability and popularity are well established; He was the first college athlete to sign with Gatorade and currently has a multi-year deal with Nike.

Last Sunday, the Dallas Wings were delighted to learn they had won the Draft Lottery.

“Today is such an energizing day, whatever the number one pick does for your fan base, it energizes your team,” general manager Curt Miller said that night, gushing about how his lottery winnings helped the search for a new head coach.

And after considering how well No. 1 picks have done historically, Miller even disdain Potential consequences of lottery result.