NFL Week 12 Total Bets: Shootout Sets Up in Indy

Over/Under bet #1: Lions vs Colts Over 50

Detroit Lions They’ve averaged an incredible 39.1 points per game over the last seven contests thanks to a balanced offense that ranks third in the league in Dropback EPA and second in Rush EPA.

Lions prove they can use the ball against anyone Indianapolis Colts They got ripped apart by the Vikings and Bills in Weeks 9 and 10, surrendering over 400 yards in both matchups.

However, Detroit’s defense looked vulnerable at times and lost middle linebacker Alex Anzalone to a fractured forearm last week. Backup linebackers Derrick Barnes and Jalen Reeves-Maybin were also already on IR, so they will be thin on the secondary. Indy’s offensive line ranks sixth in the league in run block win rate and should be able to move the ball with Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor.

Indy’s offense struggled at the beginning of the year due to erratic play at quarterback, but Anthony Richardson returned from the bench last week and completed 66.7% of his passes for 272 yards with three total touchdowns. If Shane Steichen can develop his advanced game vision, the Colts will do their part to get this game over the total.

Over/Under bet #2: Cowboys and Commanders Over 45

Washington Commanders The explosive offense took place on Thursday Night Football last week and finished with just 18 points. However, they were on the road against the Eagles’ hot defense and quarterback phenom Jayden Daniels was playing through a rib injury.

Daniels and the Commanders came into Sunday’s matchup with nine days off and will still put points on the board even if he gets close to 100%.

Washington’s offense ranks second in the league in EPA/Play and success rate. Dallas Cowboys The team has collected 34.4 points per game in the last five matches. The Cowboys are currently 30th in the league in defensive rushing EPA and 32nd in defensive rushing EPA, and I don’t see them putting up much of a defensive effort along the way.

That said, I also don’t think their offense is as terrible as it was the last two weeks with Cooper Rush at QB. Keep in mind they are facing the Eagles and Texans, who are ranked in the top 6 in defensive EPA.

Commanders, on the other hand, rank 26th and underdog in second place in defensive EPA; Cornerback Marshon Lattimore is still too injured to play in his team’s first game. Rush threw for 354 yards against Houston last week, and CeeDee Lamb could be part of Washington’s defensive backs.

Over/Under bet #3: Broncos vs Raiders Under 41.5

Despite Denver Broncos The statistical fix that exploded for 400 yards in the Falcons’ 38-6 rout last week. Las Vegas Raiders The defense ranked first in pass rush win rate and sixth in run stop win rate.

The Broncos won’t get what they wanted this week, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix performed much worse on the road. While Nix averaged 7.6 yards per pass with a 106.1 passing rating in Denver, those numbers drop to 5.3 and 74.9 on the road.

However, their defense was excellent regardless of where they played. The Broncos rank third in the league in defensive EPA and are fourth in yards allowed per rush (3.8) and third in yards allowed per pass (5.8). They shouldn’t have any trouble stopping the Raiders offense, which ranks 29th in the league in yards per play (4.7).

The Raiders’ offense ranks last in offensive EPA and offensive success rate, and they could be even worse with two running backs sidelined. Meanwhile, their passing game is led by mediocre Gardner Minshew, and his only quality receiver is rookie tight end Brock Bowers.