Legal threats are coming to Israeli Netanyahu

Jerusalem — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal challenges at home and abroad that portend a tumultuous future for the Israeli leader and could affect the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday when it issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict.

The bombshell comes less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption case that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if convicted. He denied any wrongdoing.

While the domestic bribery case polarized public opinion, the prime minister received broad support from across the political spectrum after the ICC’s move, giving him support in troubled times.

Netanyahu condemned the court’s decision as anti-Semitic and rejected accusations that he and Gallant targeted Gaza civilians and deliberately starved them.

“Israelis get really angry if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader even if he faces a lot of criticism,” said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

“So there are those who expect the ICC decision to end this government and what they see as flawed (war) policy will result in the exact opposite,” he added.

One of the first consequences is that Israel may be less likely to reach a quick ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or an agreement to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza, a senior diplomat said.

“This terrible decision… has done great damage to the chances of an agreement in Lebanon and to future negotiations on the hostages issue,” said Ofir Akunis, Israel’s Consul General in New York.

“These organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas have suffered huge losses because they have the support of the ICC, and therefore they will probably make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC,” he said.

While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there is no indication that it or Hezbollah sees it as a chance to pressure Israel, which has inflicted massive losses on both groups and the civilian population over the past year.

The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between how the war is perceived here and how it is perceived by many abroad, at a time when Israelis are focused on their own casualties and believe the country’s military is trying to minimize civilian casualties.

Michael Oren, Israel’s former ambassador to the United States, said the ICC’s move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet permission to hit Gaza and Lebanon even harder.

“There’s a strong Israeli sentiment in Israel that says, ‘if we’re being condemned for what we’re doing, we can step on the gas,’” he said.

While Netanyahu has received widespread support within the country for his ICC case, the same is not true for his domestic corruption case, in which he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.

The trial began in 2020 and Netanyahu is scheduled to finally take the stand next month after the court rejected his last request to postpone the testimony on the grounds that he was too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.

He was supposed to testify last year, but the date was postponed due to the war. His critics accuse him of delaying Judgment Day and remaining in power by prolonging the Gaza conflict, which he denies.

Public trust in Netanyahu, always a divisive figure in Israel, fell sharply following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel that caught his government off guard and claimed the lives of nearly 1,200 people.

According to Gaza officials, Israel’s subsequent campaign killed more than 44,000 people and at least once displaced nearly the entire population of Gaza; This triggered a humanitarian disaster.

The prime minister rejected the state attorney general’s recommendation to establish an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel’s conduct following the war.

Instead, it aims to create a politician-only investigation that critics say cannot provide the kind of accountability the ICC demands.

Popular Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation prompted the ICC to take action. “Netanyahu chose to risk an arrest warrant unless he had to create such a commission,” the article written on Friday said.

The Prime Minister faces a difficult future living in the shadow of the ICC arrest warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders who have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic.

It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the 124 countries that have signed the court, including most of Europe.

The only place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope that new US president Donald Trump will put pressure on ICC officials by imposing sanctions.

Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has already promised tough action: “You can expect a strong response to the ICC and UN’s anti-Semitic bias in January,” he wrote on X on Friday.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals and urging them to ignore arrest orders, as Hungary has already promised.

But Yuval Shany, a senior researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, said the accusations won’t go away any time soon, if at all, meaning other leaders will be increasingly reluctant to engage with Netanyahu.

“In a very direct sense, the state of Israel will be subject to greater isolation in the future,” he said.

Reuters